Saturday, February 2, 2013

CAA Forensic Report

It's pretty obvious that the CAA is down this season based on their conference ranking. But a little in depth analysis shows you how down the CAA is compared to the last several seasons.

1) Scoring Margin - Currently George Mason leads the CAA in scoring margin at +2.0. How down is that. Beginning with the 2005-06 season, that is more than four times less than the next lowest scoring margin leader during that time period, which was VCU at + 8.4 in 2008-09. In fact, if you put George Mason's scoring margin in the 2005-06 season, it would be eighth in the CAA (Drexel was 7th in 2005-06 at +2.5).

2) Scoring Offense - Currently Northeastern leads the CAA in scoring offense averaging 69.8 points per game. Beginning with the 2005-06 season, that is the lowest scoring offense in the CAA during that time period. In the previous two seasons, there were at least four teams that averaged more than 70 points per game.

3) Scoring Offense Part 2 - In five of the previous seven seasons, Hofstra averaged 70 points or more per game. This season Hofstra averages 59.4 points per game, which is last in the CAA.

4) Northeastern is currently last in the CAA in field goal percentage defense at 46.6 percent. If the Huskies win the CAA Tournament and keep that mark, going back to the 2005-06 season that would be the highest field goal percentage defense by a CAA team that made the NCAA Tournament. The closest is VCU in 2006-07 with 45.3 percent.

5) Rebounding Margin - Towson leads the CAA in rebounding margin at +5.3 rebounds per game. That is the lowest rebounding margin since 2007-08 when George Mason was +3.7

6) Rebounding Margin Part 2 - In the previous four seasons, ODU led the CAA in rebounding margin, averaging no less than +6.1 rebounds in a season. In 2010-11, the Monarchs were a ridiculous +11.7 rebounds per game (Drexel was second with +9.5 rebounds per game). This season, ODU averages + 3.3, their lowest rebounding margin since the 2007-08 season.

7) Individual Field Goal Percentage - Currently, Reggie Spencer leads the CAA in Field Goal percentage, shooting 53.8 percent per game. Since the 2005-06 CAA season, Spencer's field goal percentage would be the lowest by a leader in that category. Darryl Monroe led the CAA in the 2008-09 season in field goal percentage shooting 57.3 percent. Just to give you some perspective, Vladmir Kuljanin led the CAA in the 2006-07 and 2007-08 seasons in field goal percentage shooting 66.3 percent and 66.7 percent respectively.

8) KenPom Rankings - Since Ken Pomeroy started his ratings back in 2003, the top CAA team has finished 76th or higher in his yearly rankings.

2003 - UNCW 34
2004 - VCU 73
2005 - ODU 75
2006 - George Mason 23, UNCW 30, Hofstra 61, ODU 73, Drexel 100, VCU 110 and Northeastern 113
2007 - VCU 66, ODU 73
2008 - VCU 76
2009 - VCU 53
2010 - ODU 34
2011 - George Mason 28, ODU 48, VCU 52.
2012 - VCU 40, Drexel 41
2013 - George Mason 127

With George Mason the top CAA ranked team at 127, it is quite possible that no CAA team will finish in the Top 100 of the Ken Pom rankings. In fact, seven CAA teams in 2006 had a higher Ken Pom ranking than George Mason currently.

Based on a preliminary look, this is the weakest CAA season certainly since the 2007-08 season and perhaps worse. But after that 2007-08 season, the CAA rebounded quite nicely the next few seasons. One can only hope that will be the case next season.

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