I Have Seen the Light - End the BracketBusters

So, if you're a mid major college basketball fan, unless you have been hiding under a rock, you should know by now the BracketBuster Pairings.

St Mary's vs. Murray State
Long Beach State vs. Creighton
Nevada vs. Iona
Wichita State vs. Davidson
Drexel vs. Cleveland State
Akron vs. Oral Roberts
Valparaiso vs. Loyola Marymount
Northern Iowa vs. VCU
Buffalo vs. South Dakota State
Drake vs. New Mexico State
ODU vs. Missouri State
UNC Asheville vs. Weber State

After seeing the pairings, I am considering hiding under a rock.  And here's why (you will see I added three non televised BracketBuster teams for comparison.  Also you can click on the image for a full sized image);

As far as the televised game team selections, I had most of the teams from my predictions yesterday; ten of the thirteen home teams and eleven of the thirteen road teams.  I completely missed out on New Mexico State, since they deserved a spot (I did say yesterday though that I had an open home team).  What I didn't figure on was Missouri State and Loyola Marymount getting televised home games.

As for road teams, I had Drake in the discussion, so I am OK with that. As I noted in my article yesterday, the road teams were much weaker than the home teams and the statistics above prove that.  You have three road teams with nine losses, one with eight losses and another three teams with seven losses.  Compare that with the home teams where only three teams had seven losses or more.

You can see the wonderful, brilliant folks (once again, sarcasm by the author) selected their teams in most part by RPI.  It's the only explanation for Missouri State, only one of two home teams lower than second place in conference and the only home team with ten losses.  I could understand that if they had a record like ODU in conference, but they are only 6-5 in conference with an equal number of non conference losses.

As for the explanation of Loyola Marymount, I simply have none. Their numbers are worse across the board compared with both George Mason and Loyola Maryland.  To not have the first place CAA team in a televised BracketBuster game is criminal. Equally as criminal is not having Loyola Maryland, tied for first place in the MAAC, in a televised game.  Missouri State and Loyola Marymount stick out like sore thumbs in the home team comparisons and should not have got televised home games.

But the most serious transgression is giving Northern Iowa a televised game.  They are 4-7 in conference. Four and freakin seven and tied for seventh in the Missouri Valley!  Yes, they have good RPI and KenPom numbers.  But to quote Dennis Green, when you are 4-7 in conference, "They are what we thought they were". Meanwhile that leaves Stony Brook the only other BracketBuster eligible first place team besides George Mason without a televised game.  ESPN has just told the mid major basketball world what it thinks of the America East.

The pairings are not the greatest either. Based on region and RPI, I would have given St Mary's to Creighton, Wichita State to Murray State, Long Beach State to Iona and Nevada to Oral Roberts.   Yes, I know Davidson won at Kansas, but if you are going to base things on RPI, then Wichita State deserved the second best game.  If you are going to give Iona a west coast team, Long Beach State is somewhat better than Nevada based on numbers.

But again to not have the first place teams in the CAA or America East have televised games and instead have three teams that have at least nine losses and are not at least tied for second place in their conference have televised games; Northern Iowa, Missouri State and Loyola Marymount is criminal.   And if you are not going to reward a team like Stony Brook that's 7-1 in conference and in first place, why include the America East at all in the Bracketbusters?

Basically what ESPN said with yesterday's pairings is that a) the third place team in the Missouri Valley, a team with equal number of losses in conference and non conference is better than the first place team in the CAA that has only one loss in conference and half the losses overall, b) the seventh best team in the Missouri Valley that is 4-7 in conference is more rewarding of a televised game then the one loss first place team in the America East and c) Loyola Marymount is the best Loyola named school in the BracketBusters despite not being in first place and having four more losses than their Maryland counterpart.

If I was a George Mason, Stony Brook or Loyola Maryland fan this morning, I would be quite upset.

I have long been the defender of the BracketBusters.  But after yesterday's pairings, the decisions were as bad as some past NCAA Selection Committees.  For all the hassle with the home and road requirements, at least if you had selected teams based on merit and pairings that made sense, I could see it being worth the trouble.  But you didn't have that yesterday. I see only three games that can really help teams as far as at large bids; St Mary's vs. Murray State; Long Beach State vs. Creighton and believe it or not, Drexel vs. Cleveland State (a road win could definitely help the Dragons' numbers).  Otherwise, ESPN didn't do anybody any favors.

I have seen the light.  It's time to end the BracketBusters.

Too Many Good Home Teams Spoil the BracketBusters

Later today is the announcement of the thirteen televised BracketBuster games.  As I noted in a post last October, like them or not, the BracketBusters have made a difference for mid major teams.  You can make a strong case that neither George Mason or VCU would have made the NCAA Tournament in 2006 or 2011 had it not been for their road BracketBuster victories over Wichita State.

This year, the BracketBusters have more teams than last year (142 compared to 111 last year). The problem with the BracketBusters is that occasionally that depending on the schedule you have too many good home teams as opposed to road teams.  That was the case in 2006, and it is the case again this season.

Below are a list of what I think are the top teams that are home teams and the top teams that are road teams for the BracketBuster games

Definite Televised Game Home Teams - Murray State, Creighton, VCU, George Mason, Davidson, Oral Roberts, Iona, Weber State, Ohio, Cleveland State.

Home Teams in the Televised Game Mix - Loyola Maryland, South Dakota State, Montana, Manhattan, Charleston Southern, Coastal Carolina, Kent State, Georgia State, Illinois State.

Definite Televised Game Road Teams - St Mary's, Wichita State, Long Beach State, Akron, Drexel, Nevada, ODU, UNC Asheville, Texas Arlington, Stony Brook.

Road Teams in the Mix - Valparaiso, Buffalo, Wofford, UTSA, Drake.

As you can see from above, there is much more depth in the home teams than the road teams.  In fact with the "definite televised game home teams" you have nine teams that lead their conferences.  Only VCU is not in first place in their conference; they are tied for second with Drexel.  But the Rams are a no brainer after making the Final Four last season, plus they have strong KenPom and RPI numbers.  Had Butler not imploded in the last few weeks, they would have been a televised game as well due to their history.

Now look at the road teams.  Only seven of the teams lead their conferences.  There are also very few road teams with solid resumes.  Three of the five should get a televised game.  Compare that with the home teams in the mix.  Only three of the nine will get a televised game.

If I was a betting man, my guess is that of the home teams in the mix, South Dakota State and Loyola Maryland will get televised games.  That will leave one home team spot available.  As for road teams, I am going to say they take the second Horizon team, Valparaiso, another MAC team, Buffalo, and Wofford, since Wofford made the NCAA Tournament last year.

I think the definite game is St Mary's vs. Creighton.  The games that I see are likely are Wichita State vs. Murray State, Long Beach State vs.VCU, Akron vs. George Mason, Nevada vs. Oral Roberts and Drexel vs. Iona.  We'll see come later tonight.

But here's what I would do to fix the BracketBusters in the future.

1. Get rid of the home and home requirement of the BracketBusters.  Teams that are selected to play each other are supposed to schedule a game on the other's home court in the next season or two.  Well, some teams aren't thrilled with that idea, especially East Coast or West Coast teams that will have to schedule a return game and travel across country.  Rumor has it that Iona is balking at the notion of hosting Long Beach State because they will have to travel to California for the return game.   Get rid of it and just make it a one time game.
2. Have all the teams reserve their home gym the third weekend of February.  This way, you can guarantee the best games and not have to worry about too many home teams or too many road teams.  For teams that say "Well we could travel across the country to play in a BracketBuster game and it could affect our conferenc play the week after."  As Colonel Potter on MASH used to say "Horse Hockey!"  These teams want to make the NCAA Tournament.  It's very possible if they make the NCAA Tournament they could be sent all the way to the west coast or vice versa to the east coast.  Best to get used to it now.

If the wonderful, brilliant people at ESPN (author says that with sarcasm) would make those two changes, the BracketBusters would be even better.  Remember, before the BracketBusters there was no exposure for mid major teams.  Yes, regional networks like the Horizon and CAA have helped out.  But for teams like Oral Roberts or UNC Asheville, the games on ESPNU are few and far between.   The BracketBusters gives those teams exposure.

Remember, a little exposure is better than no exposure at all.

BracketBusters Make a Difference for Mid Major Teams

Last week, ESPN announced the pool of 142 teams for the 2012 BracketBusters.  It's the largest pool of teams in the history of the series that started in 2006.   Whether you like the concept or not, the BracketBusters series has helped mid major teams make a significant impact in the NCAA Tournament the past six years.

You can make a significant case that if it wasn't for the BracketBusters, neither George Mason in 2006 or VCU in 2011 would have made the NCAA Tournament and thus not make their Final Four runs.  It was those BracketBuster national TV spotlight games, George Mason winning at Wichita State and VCU also winning at Wichita State, that gave both teams signature non conference road wins that the NCAA Tournament committee really likes to see.

Furthermore, you could also make a case that the BracketBusters have helped in seeding mid major teams in the NCAA Tournament.  I truly believe that Davidson's road win at Winthrop in 2008 helped get them a #10 seed in the NCAA Tournament, which was quite high for a mid major conference champion.  Yes, the Wildcats had a tough non conference schedule in 2007-08, but they hadn't won any of their marquee non conference games until they won at Winthrop.  The win at Winthrop had some clout, because in the 2007 NCAA Tournament, the Eagles stunned Notre Dame in the first round and they would again make the NCAA Tournament in 2008.  Of course, we all know what happened with Davidson in 2008.  In fact, some of us were fortunate to be there to see that regional in Raleigh.

I think the BracketBusters also played a part in other seedings as well.  I don't think George Mason gets a #8 seed in the 2011 NCAA Tournament without their road win at Northern Iowa.  The Patriots would eventually knock off Villanova in the first round.  #15 Southern Illinois' nationally televised 68-64 road win over #12 Butler in 2007, broke the Bulldogs' 22 game home winning streak.  It also was the Salukis' first road win over a ranked opponent in over thirty years. It helped give Southern Illinois a #4 seed, which they used to propel themselves to a Sweet 16 run.  Butler would get a #5 seed and also got to the Sweet Sixteen that year as well.

The 2006 BracketBusters showcased 19 eventual NCAA Tournament teams that year, which is the most for any of that series.  The 2006 Bracketbusters also had the most wins by teams in the NCAA Tournament, twelve.  Yes, most of the wins were due to George Mason's Final Four run.  But the Missouri Valley teams did a lot of damage too, as Bradley and Wichita State each went to the Sweet Sixteen.  The 2010 series finished second with ten, due in large part to the National Championship run of Butler and the Sweet 16 run of  Northern Iowa.

Now the 2010 edition would have tied the 2006 edition had St Mary's played that year.  The Gaels, a usual member of the BracketBuster series, decided not to be a part of the BracketBusters that season.   Likewise, the 2011 edition would have broken the 2006 edition's record had Butler, another usual member of the BracketBusters, played last year.  The Bulldogs had become the darling of the national media and played a lot of high visibility games on national TV, so they didn't need the BracketBuster exposure.

But curiously enough, for the 2012 BracketBusters, both Butler and St Mary's are there.  One team that I wished was there, LIU, who lost to North Carolina in the first round of this year's NCAA Tournament, will not be a part of it.  In fact, no NEC teams will be a part of the BracketBusters, due to their demanding conference schedule.  

It's a shame because, like it or not, based on the evidence I have shown above, the BracketBusters has made a difference to mid major teams.  And for the Blackbirds, a team that I think will be a repeat champion in the NEC, a little national exposure and a big non conference win can go a long way.  Ask George Mason, VCU, Davidson and Southern Illinois.