It was a crazy weekend of college basketball. Well it has been all season, but it got magnified this past weekend. Here's a recap of some of the things that happened.
1) WCC- Loyola Marymount, who had one win in conference all season takes down Santa Clara Friday night in the WCC Quarterfinal, their third win of the conference tournament. Then on Saturday, they lead Gonzaga for most of the first half in their semifinal before losing to the Zags. Meanwhile, #3 BYU loses Friday night to #6 San Diego, ending any faint hopes the Cougars had at an large. Then San Diego nearly pulls off another upset Saturday night on Saint Mary's. Matthew Dellavedova saves the Gaels in overtime and likely locks up an at large bid for SMC.
2) NEC Saturday - The Northeast Conference has one of the best mid major conference tournament setups. All the tournament games are played on the highest seeds home court. In a small conference like the NEC, that makes sense. You get your best crowds on the home court and rewards the teams for the regular season play.
That being said, guess what happened in the NEC semis? Both home teams, Robert Morris and Wagner lost. Not only did they lose, but they got hammered. So your final is #5 Mount St Mary's against #3 LIU. For the third season in a row, the NEC championship runs through Brooklyn.
3) CAA Weekend - For the first time in seemingly ever, the CAA Tournament was played on a true "neutral" site. Well, that's because VCU left the CAA for the A-10. Anyway, Saturday featured three games that were all decided by six points or less, all decided in the last minute. Mason survived a late Drexel rally to win 60-54. Then #2 seed Delaware had to hold off #7 Hofstra 62-57. The Pride had a lead for a good part of that game. Finally JMU barely beat W&M in the last semi.
But all that pales in comparison to yesterday. A year removed from being down to VCU 32-4 in the CAA semifinal before rallying to only lose by ten, George Mason decided to channel the Rams and jump out to a 31-7 lead on Northeastern. Unfortunately for the Patriots, the Huskies went on a 26-2 run to tie the game at 33. Much to their credit, Mason came back and held the lead till very late in the game until Northeastern pulled off the comeback, winning in the last couple of seconds on a Jonathan Lee layup.
Then of course in the finale, what's a CAA Tournament game without controversial officiating. Apparently in the last twelve seconds, Delaware was not affected not by one but two questionable calls. One call had Jarvis Threatt called for being out of bounds. Replays clearly show he was not out of bounds. Then with a couple of seconds left, Jamelle Hagins is called for a foul on what many thought was a jump ball. Devon Moore's two free throws capped a late James Madison rally and the Dukes are in the CAA final for the first time since 1999. At least we'll finally see a different CAA team make the tournament besides George Mason, VCU and Old Dominion since UNCW won the championship in 2006.
4) OVC Final - With many Power Six conference teams anxiously watching from their TVs or online, Belmont, a team that many thought could get an at large berth if they didn't win their conference tournament had to rally against perennial OVC champion Murray State to force overtime. With the game tied in extra regulation, Racers star player Isaiah Canaan actually dribbles off his foot to cause a backcourt violation. Then Kerron Johnson, a few minutes removed from gashing his chin and playing with w large bandage on his face, calmly hits a short jumper to send the Bruins dancing for the third season in a row.
5) MAAC Weekend - So you're a high seed in the MAAC Tournament? This past weekend wasn't kind to you. In the Quarterfinals on Saturday, #2 seed Rider and #3 seed Loyola lost their games. On Sunday #1 seed Niagara lost to #4 Iona. It was a microcosm of the MAAC season where it seemed six or seven teams could win the conference. Well, if you have #3 LIU hosting #5 Mount St Mary's in the NEC, why not have #4 Iona playing #6 Manhattan in the MAAC.
Even the women's MAAC tournament had an upset where #3 Fairfield went down in flames to #6 Siena. But at least the top two seeds, Marist and Iona are in the final. Both won their two games in the MAAC tournament by double digits. Their championship will be played today at noon on ESPNU and on Watch ESPN online.
6) Sun Belt - Well, Middle Tennessee State had to go out and lose in the conference semifinal last night to Florida International. In the possible irony of ironies, FIU may make the tournament in the first season after they suffered through Isiah Thomas as their head coach for several seasons. Meanwhile, the Blue Raiders, who dominated the Sun Belt with a 19-1 regular season record, have to hope their 28-5 record will be good enough for an at large. Not sure about that.
7) America East - Another #1 seed fell as Stony Brook lost to #4 seed Albany, the host for the first two rounds of the America East Tournament. The Seawolves rallied from a ten point second half deficit to tie the game at 59 on two Dave Coley free throws. But Mike Black nailed a layup with less than three seconds left to win the game for the Great Danes. It was the fourth season in a row that Stony Brook was either the #1 seed or played in the America East Tournament Final and failed to get the automatic bid for the NCAA Tournament. More on this in a little bit.
8) Power Six Conference Games - Maryland had a chance to help themselves and hurt Virginia last night. But the Terps blew a late game lead on the road and the Cavaliers won in overtime. Maryland is likely done and Virginia actually gets a first round bye in the ACC tournament with the win. That's because North Carolina State pulled a clunker by losing at Florida State on Saturday.
Kansas could have done a lot of other bubble teams a favor by beating Baylor on the road Saturday. But the Bears managed to keep themselves alive upsetting #4 Kansas easily 81-58. The Bears finish 9-9 in conference and with a couple of wins in the Big 12 Tournament, could make things even more interesting come Selection Sunday.
Meanwhile in the SEC, Kentucky, Tennessee and Ole Miss complicated the bubble even further by all winning. The Wildcats, who supposedly didn't have a good win all season, well they fixed that by beating #9 Florida at home. With the win, Kentucky gets the #2 seed in the SEC Tournament. The Volunteers held on at home to defeat Missouri 64-62. And Ole Miss locked up the number three seed in the SEC tournament by winning at LSU 81-68. It was the Rebels twenty third win of the season.
In the Big Ten, Illinois and Minnesota complicated their matters as far as NCAA Tournament at large bids by both finishing 8-10 in conference. Meanwhile, Iowa put themselves back into bubble talk by beating Nebraska and finishing 9-9 in conference, good enough for the six seed in the Big Ten Tournament. The Hawkeyes have twenty wins on the season now.
Finally, I want to discuss how some mid major conferences, the Sun Belt and more specifically, the America East run their conference tournaments. First, read this terrific quick post by Sports Illustrated's Andy Glockner. He's dead on with his assessments on how these conferences are not sending their best teams to the tournament.
In the case of the Sun Belt, you have a 19-1 Middle Tennesee State team whose reward for their impressive regular season was playing a neutral site in Hot Spring Arkansas. The question is was it worth it to have the conference play the tournament at a neutral site? The Sun Belt doesn't have a TV agreement with ESPN so their semifinal games weren't even on Watch ESPN. Also can anyone tell me the attendance for last night's semifinals? At most, it would be 6200, because that's the capacity size for the Summit Arena, which hosts the Sun Belt tournament.
If the Sun Belt's reasoning for hosting a tournament is having a large crowd, there are several campus sites like Arkansas State (the #2 seed, who also lost last night to #6 Western Kentucky) that have at least a 5,000 seat capacity. Heck, Middle Tennessee's Murphy Athletic Center can seat over 11,000. So why not do what the NEC or the Patriot do and have tournament games on home site. Or reward the #1 seed like the Horizon does and host several rounds or the semifinal round on the #1 seed's site.
It's even worse in the case of the America East. Since 1996, one conference member has hosted the America East Tournament. From 1996 to 2001, while Delaware was in the America East, it was the Bob Carpenter Center. Since then it's been Boston (Matthews Arena - Northeastern and Walter Brown Arena and Agganis Arena, Boston University), Binghamton Athletics Center, Chase Arena, West Hartford and SEFCU Arena in Albany (twice now).
When Hofstra was the #1 seed in the America East in 2000 and 2001, my friend Tieff and I joked each year "We have to survive Delaware (meaning the tourney games in Delaware)". Fortunately, we didn't have to play the Blue Hens during those rounds those two years (they were the #2 seed and the Flying Dutchmen/Pride played them at home in the championship game).
DefiantlyDutch, who disagrees with me, notes that six times over the seventeen years, the host team has defeated a higher seed in the tournament. So that's one time every three years, which is not a lot, but more than you think. That also doesn't count the numerous times a higher seed has lost in the first two rounds to a non host member lower seed. Top seeded teams face a hostile environment because all the fans except your own are rooting against you, including the home team if they are still in the tournament. And I know the BOB was sold out the last two seasons Hofstra was in the America East Tournament.
And that was the fate of Stony Brook last night. The #1 seed played the #4 seed on their home court. And Albany is a pretty good team. Ask Washington how good the Great Danes are.
The fact is that SEFCU Arena seats 5,000 fans. So for two days, you had maybe 5000 fans each day. So instead of having 10,000 fans in a league member's site, why not have seven games at highest home team's site. Wouldn't you end up having more fans see the games overall? Yes Patrick Gymnasium (Vermont) and Pritchard Gym (Stony Brook) are small gyms. But even with them and SEFCU and Chase Arena, I guarantee overall more fans see those seven games on home teams' sites than two days in Albany.
Also for these conferences to really show how good they are on a national scene, don't you want to try to have your best teams represent you? Middle Tennessee State and Stony Brook are good enough to win first round games in the NCAA Tournament. Kid you not. But now we won't find that out in Stony Brook's case and won't likely find out in Middle Tennessee's case.
The NEC, the Patriot, the Atlantic Sun, the Horizon and the Ivy, where there is no conference tournament, do things the right way. They place a high regard on the regular season. As Glockner notes, that allowed Cornell to get to the Sweet 16 in 2010. What about Butler's success in the NCAA Tournament? How about Lehigh vs. Duke last season? Even Belmont when they were in the A-Sun when they almost knocked off Duke. They all came from conferences, Ivy, Horizon, Atlantic Sun and Patriot that made the regular season count. Thus you had the best conference teams representing and in a lot of cases WINNING in the NCAA Tournament.
It's time mid major conferences like the Sun Belt, the Southern and especially America East to start regarding
the regular season more. Heck even the CAA should consider it once their agreement with Baltimore ends. Otherwise they are only hurting themselves as far as potential national reputation. And simply put, it's not rewarding a team's regular season accomplishments.
Showing posts with label Bubble Watch. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Bubble Watch. Show all posts
Monday, March 11, 2013
Monday, March 4, 2013
Bubble, Bubble, Toil and Trouble
With two weeks left until Selection Sunday, mid major conference tournaments start this week. Often these tournaments throw a crimp in the at large hopes of both Power Six conference teams and non Power Six conference teams. There are some teams that really have locked at large bids; Butler, VCU, Saint Louis, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and now North Carolina are just a few that come to mind. There are over thirty teams that are probably in bubble consideration. A few teams have already played their way out of bubble consideration - St John's, Charlotte, Indiana State, Massachusetts, Iowa and BYU are examples. Let's see who is still bubblicious.
LaSalle (20-7, 10-4 A-10, 39 RPI , 48 BPI, 47 KenPom ) - The Explorers are solidly in the top four of the Atlantic 10. They have good wins over Villanova, Butler and at VCU. Their only bad loss was at the beginning of the year to Central Connecticut State. With two remaining regular season games left vs. George Washington and at St Louis, LaSalle looks likely to be an NCAA at large team even if they lose to the Bilikens. The Explorers though need to avoid a loss to the Colonials and an early A-10 tournament exit.
Temple (21-8, 9-5 A-10, 42 RPI, 57 BPI, 76 KenPom) - The Owls, tied for fourth in the A-10, have a very unusual resume. They have some very good wins; Villanova, neutral site over Syracuse, Saint Louis and LaSalle. But Temple also has some very bad losses; home losses to St. Bonaventure and Duquesne (home loss to Canisius didn't help either). The Owls need to secure their spot in the NCAA Tournament by beating some Rams; Fordham and especially VCU, plus make sure to get to the A-10 semifinals. Otherwise, they could be seriously sweating Selection Sunday.
North Carolina State (21-8, 10-6 ACC, 23 RPI, 19 BPI, KenPom) - With their road win at Georgia Tech combined with Virginia blowing a late lead at Boston College, the Wolfpack have probably done enough to make the NCAA Tournament. They have a neutral site win over UConn, a big win at home over then #1 ranked Duke, and a home win over North Carolina. Their only bad loss is at Wake Forest, which compared to many other bubble teams isn't bad at all. They have two games left in conference; home to Wake and at Florida State. Win those two games, get to the ACC tournament semifinals and the Wolfpack will be fine. Any slips, well it then gets a little interesting.
Virginia (20-9, 10-6 ACC, 62 RPI, 40 BPI, 18 KenPom) - Here is a serious Jekyll and Hyde profile. Good wins over Tennessee, North Carolina, NC State, at Maryland and recently Duke. Really bad neutral site loss to ODU, home loss to Delaware, losses on the road at Wake Forest, Clemson and most recently, today to Boston College. They need to win at Florida State and then win the battle of the ACC bubble teams when they face Maryland at home. A trip to the ACC Tournament semifinals could definitely help. Here's a team that is truly on the bubble on Selection Sunday.
Maryland (20-9, 8-8 ACC, 68 RPI, 52 BPI, 62 KenPom) - The Terps are on the wrong side of the bubble at the moment. Their only good wins are home to NC State and of course Duke. The bad losses are getting swept by Florida State and road losses to Georgia Tech and Boston College. If they want any chance of making the tournament they have to win at home vs. North Carolina and win at Virginia, so that they are at least above .500 in conference. Also, Maryland really needs to make the ACC Tournament semifinals as well. The game against Virginia very well will decide their fate.
Villanova (18-12, 9-8 Big East, 55 RPI, 62 BPI, 55 KenPom) - All the Wildcats had to do was hold on and win in regulation against Pittsburgh and their ticket to the big dance would have been punched. Alas, Nova couldn't hold on and lost to the Panthers in overtime. Thus another team sits squarely on the bubble. The good; wins over Louisville, Syracuse, at UConn and Marquette. The bad; home loss to Columbia (?), at Seton Hall and home to Providence. Nova needs to beat Georgetown, no easy task, and win at least one game in the Big East Tournament. Otherwise, there will be a home game in the NIT awaiting the Wildcats.
Cincinnati (20-9, 8-8 Big East, 48 RPI, 30 BPI, 34 KenPom) - A lot of people have the Bearcats on the bubble, due in large part to their .500 record in the Big East. I don't see that. I think they are solidly in at this moment. They have solid neutral site non conference wins over Iowa State and Oregon. They also have a win over Alabama, a road win at Pittsburgh and Marquette. The only possibly considered bad loss is a home loss to St John's. But there are teams on the bubble with far, far worse losses. Bearcats could use a win over Louisville, definitely a win over South Florida, plus at least one Big East Tourney win to end the bubble discussion.
Illinois (21-9, 8-8 Big Ten, 34 RPI, 60 BPI, 39 KenPom) - Another team that has only merited bubble discussion due to their .500 record in the Big Ten. They have a lot of good wins; Butler, at Gonzaga, Indiana, at Minnesota and Ohio State. Their only bad losses are at Purdue and home to Northwestern. They should be in good shape but they can't afford a loss at Iowa. Another road game with Ohio State will be difficult to win. The Fighting Illini should at least win one Big Ten Tourney game just to make sure. But they should be quite fine for an at large at the moment.
Minnesota (20-9, 8-8 Big Ten, 16 RPI, 20 BPI, 14 KenPom) - Again, another Big Ten team that is only getting bubble talk due to their .500 conference record. A lot of good wins; Memphis, Michigan State, at Illinois, Indiana and Wisconsin. The only bad loss is at Northwestern. Still, the Gophers could make things really interesting for themselves since they have two conference road games left at Nebraska and at Purdue. Lose one or heaven forbid, both and Minnesota will need to make a serious run in the Big Ten Tournament to make up for those losses. If the Gophers win both road games, they will have twenty two wins plus an above .500 conference record. That should easily do the trick.
Baylor (17-12, 8-8 Big 12, 60 RPI, 46 BPI, 51 KenPom) - The Bears are looking at the wrong side of the at large tracks right now. They only have two good wins; at Kentucky and home over Oklahoma State. Other than that, a win over BYU, which looked better earlier in the season. The bad - home losses to Charleston and Northwestern. Baylor must win at Texas, then must, must, MUST beat Kansas at home, plus make a run in the Big 12 Tournament. Otherwise, hello NIT.
Iowa State (19-9, 9-7 Big 12, 53 RPI, 42 BPI, 44 KenPom) - Unlike their Big 12 brethren Baylor, Iowa State looks to be on the right side of the bubble at the moment. They have a wins over Oklahoma State and Oklahoma. Plus, they swept the season series vs. Baylor, which will definitely be a measuring stick of comparison between the two teams on Selection Sunday. What makes Iowa State a bubble team is a glaring lack of a good non conference win. Best was vs. BYU, but see Baylor. They also have road losses at Texas Tech and Texas. They could use wins at Oklahoma State and West Virgina, plus one Big 12 Tournament win.
Southern Miss (22-7, 11-3 CUSA, 36 RPI, 59 BPI, 56 KenPom) - The Golden Eagles are on this list, well, I guess just based on their record and their RPI. Southern Miss is definitely on the wrong side of the bubble right now. There are really no bad losses, except maybe at UCF. However, there are no good wins, they lost to every good non conference team they played and most importantly were swept by Memphis. The Golden Eagles have to win the CUSA Tournament. Otherwise, it's NIT for them.
Akron (23-5, 13-1 MAC, 47 RPI, 50 BPI, 54 KenPom) - Ladies and Gentlemen, your 2012-13 version of the Drexel Dragons. After the Zips won their eighteenth straight conference game, Dan Dakich pronounced that Akron was "a lock" for an at large bid. As much as I like the Zips, especially Zeke Marshall, they haven't done enough to warrant being "a lock" for an at large bid. Their profile screams last season's Drexel team. They have one good non conference win over Middle Tennessee State, plus they swept the season series from last year's Sweet Sixteen Cinderella, Ohio (who again is good this season). But they have a bad loss to Coastal Carolina and now their MAC streak has ended with a really bad loss to Buffalo. Sorry, Akron, but you need to win the MAC Tournament now to make the dance. Otherwise, you will have the same fate of Drexel, a ton of wins in a row, but a trip to the NIT after not winning the conference tournament. I would like to be wrong otherwise, but I don't think so.
Creighton (24-7, 13-5 MVC, 35 RPI, 17 BPI, 20 KenPom) - After losing to St Mary's and likely staring at a second place finish in the Missouri Valley, the Bluejays found themselves a part of bubble talk. But they rallied to take the regular season MVC championship and their non conference resume is very strong. They have good non conference wins over Wisconsin, Arizona State, Akron, California, plus a win over Wichita State. The bad include road losses at Drake and Illinois State. The good far outweighs the bad. The Bluejays are in the dance.
Wichita State (24-7, 12-6 MVC, 40 RPI, 29 BPI, 35 KenPom) - The Shockers now find themselves a part of bubble talk, in large part to their own doing. Had they taken care of business at home in conference, Wichita State would have the regular season MVC championship and an at large bid sewn up. However, home losses to Evansville and Indiana State, along with a bad loss at Southern Illinois resulted in a second place finish in the Valley. However, the Shockers have a solid non conference resume; a huge road win at VCU, a neutral site win vs. Iowa, a road win at Air Force, plus a home win vs. Southern Miss. Add a win over Creighton and as long as Wichita State makes the MVC Tournament final, they should be fine. If the Shockers get upset along the way, then the bubble talk only intensifies.
Colorado State ( 22-7, 9-5 MWC, 17 RPI, 33 BPI, 28 KenPom) - The Rams are in pretty solid shape. The Mountain West has been a very strong conference and will likely have at least four teams in the tournament. In fact, the Rams really aren't part of the bubble talk at the moment, but things could change should they lose at Wyoming or home to Nevada. Colorado State has a strong resume with wins over Montana, Denver, Air Force, UNLV, Boise State and San Diego State. Their only bad loss was at UIC. Rams are pretty safe...for now.
UNLV (22-7, 9-5 MWC, 15 RPI, 25 BPI, 30 KenPom) - Again, the only reason UNLV, like Colorado State, is on here is that the Mountain West is unusually deep in teams this season and for a non Power Six conference, if you're not in first, you tend to be bubblicious. The Rebels should be just fine with wins at California, Iowa State, Colorado State, New Mexico and they swept San Diego State. Their only bad loss is at Fresno State. Even if they lose to Boise State (and they won't lose again to Fresno State), the Rebels are in the big dance. Book it.
San Diego State (20-8, 8-6 MWC, 33 RPI, 27 BPI, 26 KenPom) - This is where things start getting tricky in the Mountain West. Three teams based on their record should be in; New Mexico, Colorado State and UNLV. Then there are two teams that might be battling for one spot, but likely two at large spots, San Diego State and Boise State The Aztecs have a solid resume, especially from a non conference stand point with neutral site wins over UCLA and Indiana State (don't laugh, the Sycamores have some pretty strong non conference scalps this season). Plus wins over Colorado State, New Mexico and Boise State. Their only bad loss is at Wyoming. Still they need to win against Air Force, then the huge showdown at Boise State, which could likely lock an at large berth. Also, don't get upset in the first round of the Mountain West Tourney.
Boise State (20-8, 8-6 MWC, 44 RPI, 49 BPI, 52 KenPom) - With help from some other bubble teams imploding, the Broncos have made their way into bubble talk discussion. What helps is an impressive non conference road win at Creighton, coupled with conference wins over UNLV and Colorado State. The bad are losses at Utah and at Nevada. The Broncos have a tough conference schedule remaining; at UNLV and home to San Diego State. A win over the Rebels would be HUGE, but the game against San Diego State is probably most important. A nice run in the Mountain West Tourney could help too. Unless they win the MWC Tournament, the Broncos will definitely be sweating out Selection Sunday.
Belmont (24-6, 14-2 OVC, 25 RPI, 51 BPI, 40 KenPom) - The Bruins have been an especially solid team all season. The problem is their resume includes only a couple of good wins - Middle Tennessee State and Ohio are their best wins. Their worst losses aren't terrible - Northeastern, the CAA regular season champ, at neutral site, at UCF and probably their worst, at Tennessee State. But Belmont probably needs to win the Ohio Valley Tournament to get to the NCAA Tournament.
Kentucky (20-9, 11-5 SEC, 51 RPI, 43 BPI, 33 KenPom) - When Nerlens Noel went down for the season, many basketball experts said the Wildcats' at large bid was at risk. Then those experts sounded the alarm when in their next game, Kentucky lost by thirty at Tennessee. The Cats won their next three including an overtime win vs. Missouri before losing to Arkansas. As of this moment, Joe Lunardi has them as one of the last four in. I am here to tell you, it's not that bad. The good - The Wildcats have a neutral site win over Maryland and wins at Ole Miss, Missouri and Tennessee. You could probably say their worst loss was at Texas A&M. There are a lot of teams with worst losses (hello, Virginia). Kentucky needs to win at Georgia, then muster all their might to beat Florida and then win a few games in the SEC Tournament. If they can accomplish two of those three goals, the Cats are in the big dance.
Alabama (19-10, 11-5 SEC, 59 RPI, 68 BPI, KenPom) - The Crimson Tide are right there tied for second with Kentucky in the SEC. They are only one game behind Kentucky's record. Yet Bama is on the outside looking in. Yes, they have a neutral site win over Villanova and a win over Kentucky. But Alabama has some bad home losses to Mercer and Tulane. The Tide need to win at Ole Miss, a likely bubble buster game and defeat Georgia, plus they need to make the SEC Tournament final for any hope of making the tournament on Selection Sunday.
Missouri (21-8, 10-6 SEC, 32 RPI, 26 BPI, 70 KenPom) - The Tigers are probably on this list for the sole reason that they are tied for fourth in the SEC. But Missouri has little to worry about at the moment. They have a very good non conference resjme with neutral site wins over VCU and Illinois, along with a win over Bucknell and conference wins over Alabama, Ole Miss and Florida. Their lone bad loss is at LSU. Unless the Tigers implode by losing to Arkansas, then Tennessee and a quick exit in the SEC tournament, they are safely in the NCAA Tournament.
Ole Miss (21-8, 10-6 SEC, 58 RPI, 45 BPI, 50 KenPom) - Unlike the Tigers, the Rebels are in serious, serious trouble. A few weeks ago, they were a lock to make the NCAA Tournament. Now, they are on the outside looking in. You can't lose to both South Carolina and Mississippi State, two teams that are in the 200's in RPI. Their best wins are over Tennessee (twice), Arkansas and Missouri. Other than that, no signature non conference wins to hang their hat on. The Rebels are in the same spot as the Crimson Tide. They need to beat Alabama in the bubble buster game, then win at LSU, then win at least two games in the SEC Tournament. Anything less and it's an NIT bid.
Tennessee (17-11, 9-7 SEC, 56 RPI, 63 BPI, 63 KenPom) - Unlike the Rebels, the Volunteers have a good non conference win in defeating Wichita State. But other than home wins vs. Alabama and Kentucky, the Vols have little on their resume. The bad outweighs the good as Tennessee has lost twice to Georgia, who are below them in the standings. The Volunteers basically need to win the SEC Tournament to get into the NCAA Tournament.
Arkansas (18-11, 9-7 SEC, 75 RPI, 74 BPI, 68 KenPom) - I guess if you have to have Tennessee, you have to have Arkansas. They do have a non conference win over Oklahoma and wins over Florida, Missouri, Kentucky and Tennessee. The bad are losses at Vandy, at Texas A&M, at South Carolina and at LSU. For them to have any chance for an at large bid, they need to win at Missouri, then beat Texas A&M and then win at least two games in the SEC Tournament. Sound familiar? See the two SEC teams prior to them.
Middle Tennessee State (27-4, 19-1 Sun Belt, 24 RPI, 41 BPI, 27 KenPom) - The Blue Raiders have dominated the Sun Belt. They have a good win over Ole Miss that might come in handy if they are an at large contender on Selection Sunday. Their only bad loss is at Arkansas State. They have done everything they can, sans beat good teams on the road like Belmont, Akron (overtime) and Florida. They will be an interesting case should they not win the Sun Belt. Here's hoping they win the Sun Belt and make the question moot.
California (20-9, 12-5 PAC 12, 46 RPI, 47 BPI, KenPom) - After losing at Arizona State on February 7, the Golden Bears were 13-9, 7-5 in the PAC 12. They looked done. Now less than one month and seven straight wins later, Cal looks to be solidly in the tournament. They have swept Oregon, beat UCLA, Arizona and Colorado. Their bad losses are to Harvard at home, Washington at home and at Stanford. There are teams with a lot worse losses. Cal could sew things up with a win over Stanford plus a trip to the PAC 12 semifinals.
Colorado (19-9, 9-7 PAC 12, 29 RPI, 37 BPI, 49 KenPom) - The Buffaloes are starting to tread a little water having split their last four games. Still Colorado has a nice neutral site win over Baylor, plus wins over Air Force, Colorado State, California, Oregon and Arizona. The bad losses are road losses to Washington and Utah. The Buffs need to close out with a few wins at home vs. Oregon and Oregon State to make sure they punch their ticket to the tournament.
Arizona State (20-10, 9-8 PAC 12, 92 RPI, 67 BPI, 78 KenPom) - After defeating Cal on February 7, the Sun Devils were 18-5 and 7-3 in the PAC 12. Since then, Arizona State is 2-5. The good, a neutral site win over Arkansas, two wins over Colorado and a win over UCLA. The bad is bad; RPI is 92 (!), lost to DePaul at home, lost to Washington twice, home loss to Stanford and a road loss to Utah. Plus their final regular season game is at Arizona, a team they lost to at home by seventeen. Unless they shock the Wildcats and make it to the PAC 12 Tournament final, no at large for the Sun Devils.
Louisiana Tech (26-3, 16-0 WAC, 50 RPI, 64 BPI, 64 KenPom) - The Bulldogs have been terrific in a pretty decent WAC (Denver and New Mexico State each have nineteen wins). To be undefeated in conference this late in the season is impressive. They also have a home win over Southern Miss. Their only bad loss was at McNeese State. If they can win their last two conference games at Denver and at New Mexico State, plus make it to the WAC tournament finals, the NCAA Tournament committee will be hard pressed to turn away a thirty win team. Hope it doesn't come to that and that the Bulldogs win the WAC. We'll see.
St Mary's (26-5, 14-2 WCC, 41 RPI, 35 BPI, 19 KenPom) - Another season where the Gaels have done almost everything but beat Gonzaga. There were a couple of slip ups in non conference with losses to Pacific and Georgia Tech in the Anaheim Classic. And yes, the Zags beat them twice in conference. But St Mary's does have an impressive win over Creighton. If I were Randy Bennett, I better hope my team makes the WCC Tournament final. Anything less could make things interesting.
LaSalle (20-7, 10-4 A-10, 39 RPI , 48 BPI, 47 KenPom ) - The Explorers are solidly in the top four of the Atlantic 10. They have good wins over Villanova, Butler and at VCU. Their only bad loss was at the beginning of the year to Central Connecticut State. With two remaining regular season games left vs. George Washington and at St Louis, LaSalle looks likely to be an NCAA at large team even if they lose to the Bilikens. The Explorers though need to avoid a loss to the Colonials and an early A-10 tournament exit.
Temple (21-8, 9-5 A-10, 42 RPI, 57 BPI, 76 KenPom) - The Owls, tied for fourth in the A-10, have a very unusual resume. They have some very good wins; Villanova, neutral site over Syracuse, Saint Louis and LaSalle. But Temple also has some very bad losses; home losses to St. Bonaventure and Duquesne (home loss to Canisius didn't help either). The Owls need to secure their spot in the NCAA Tournament by beating some Rams; Fordham and especially VCU, plus make sure to get to the A-10 semifinals. Otherwise, they could be seriously sweating Selection Sunday.
North Carolina State (21-8, 10-6 ACC, 23 RPI, 19 BPI, KenPom) - With their road win at Georgia Tech combined with Virginia blowing a late lead at Boston College, the Wolfpack have probably done enough to make the NCAA Tournament. They have a neutral site win over UConn, a big win at home over then #1 ranked Duke, and a home win over North Carolina. Their only bad loss is at Wake Forest, which compared to many other bubble teams isn't bad at all. They have two games left in conference; home to Wake and at Florida State. Win those two games, get to the ACC tournament semifinals and the Wolfpack will be fine. Any slips, well it then gets a little interesting.
Virginia (20-9, 10-6 ACC, 62 RPI, 40 BPI, 18 KenPom) - Here is a serious Jekyll and Hyde profile. Good wins over Tennessee, North Carolina, NC State, at Maryland and recently Duke. Really bad neutral site loss to ODU, home loss to Delaware, losses on the road at Wake Forest, Clemson and most recently, today to Boston College. They need to win at Florida State and then win the battle of the ACC bubble teams when they face Maryland at home. A trip to the ACC Tournament semifinals could definitely help. Here's a team that is truly on the bubble on Selection Sunday.
Maryland (20-9, 8-8 ACC, 68 RPI, 52 BPI, 62 KenPom) - The Terps are on the wrong side of the bubble at the moment. Their only good wins are home to NC State and of course Duke. The bad losses are getting swept by Florida State and road losses to Georgia Tech and Boston College. If they want any chance of making the tournament they have to win at home vs. North Carolina and win at Virginia, so that they are at least above .500 in conference. Also, Maryland really needs to make the ACC Tournament semifinals as well. The game against Virginia very well will decide their fate.
Villanova (18-12, 9-8 Big East, 55 RPI, 62 BPI, 55 KenPom) - All the Wildcats had to do was hold on and win in regulation against Pittsburgh and their ticket to the big dance would have been punched. Alas, Nova couldn't hold on and lost to the Panthers in overtime. Thus another team sits squarely on the bubble. The good; wins over Louisville, Syracuse, at UConn and Marquette. The bad; home loss to Columbia (?), at Seton Hall and home to Providence. Nova needs to beat Georgetown, no easy task, and win at least one game in the Big East Tournament. Otherwise, there will be a home game in the NIT awaiting the Wildcats.
Cincinnati (20-9, 8-8 Big East, 48 RPI, 30 BPI, 34 KenPom) - A lot of people have the Bearcats on the bubble, due in large part to their .500 record in the Big East. I don't see that. I think they are solidly in at this moment. They have solid neutral site non conference wins over Iowa State and Oregon. They also have a win over Alabama, a road win at Pittsburgh and Marquette. The only possibly considered bad loss is a home loss to St John's. But there are teams on the bubble with far, far worse losses. Bearcats could use a win over Louisville, definitely a win over South Florida, plus at least one Big East Tourney win to end the bubble discussion.
Illinois (21-9, 8-8 Big Ten, 34 RPI, 60 BPI, 39 KenPom) - Another team that has only merited bubble discussion due to their .500 record in the Big Ten. They have a lot of good wins; Butler, at Gonzaga, Indiana, at Minnesota and Ohio State. Their only bad losses are at Purdue and home to Northwestern. They should be in good shape but they can't afford a loss at Iowa. Another road game with Ohio State will be difficult to win. The Fighting Illini should at least win one Big Ten Tourney game just to make sure. But they should be quite fine for an at large at the moment.
Minnesota (20-9, 8-8 Big Ten, 16 RPI, 20 BPI, 14 KenPom) - Again, another Big Ten team that is only getting bubble talk due to their .500 conference record. A lot of good wins; Memphis, Michigan State, at Illinois, Indiana and Wisconsin. The only bad loss is at Northwestern. Still, the Gophers could make things really interesting for themselves since they have two conference road games left at Nebraska and at Purdue. Lose one or heaven forbid, both and Minnesota will need to make a serious run in the Big Ten Tournament to make up for those losses. If the Gophers win both road games, they will have twenty two wins plus an above .500 conference record. That should easily do the trick.
Baylor (17-12, 8-8 Big 12, 60 RPI, 46 BPI, 51 KenPom) - The Bears are looking at the wrong side of the at large tracks right now. They only have two good wins; at Kentucky and home over Oklahoma State. Other than that, a win over BYU, which looked better earlier in the season. The bad - home losses to Charleston and Northwestern. Baylor must win at Texas, then must, must, MUST beat Kansas at home, plus make a run in the Big 12 Tournament. Otherwise, hello NIT.
Iowa State (19-9, 9-7 Big 12, 53 RPI, 42 BPI, 44 KenPom) - Unlike their Big 12 brethren Baylor, Iowa State looks to be on the right side of the bubble at the moment. They have a wins over Oklahoma State and Oklahoma. Plus, they swept the season series vs. Baylor, which will definitely be a measuring stick of comparison between the two teams on Selection Sunday. What makes Iowa State a bubble team is a glaring lack of a good non conference win. Best was vs. BYU, but see Baylor. They also have road losses at Texas Tech and Texas. They could use wins at Oklahoma State and West Virgina, plus one Big 12 Tournament win.
Southern Miss (22-7, 11-3 CUSA, 36 RPI, 59 BPI, 56 KenPom) - The Golden Eagles are on this list, well, I guess just based on their record and their RPI. Southern Miss is definitely on the wrong side of the bubble right now. There are really no bad losses, except maybe at UCF. However, there are no good wins, they lost to every good non conference team they played and most importantly were swept by Memphis. The Golden Eagles have to win the CUSA Tournament. Otherwise, it's NIT for them.
Akron (23-5, 13-1 MAC, 47 RPI, 50 BPI, 54 KenPom) - Ladies and Gentlemen, your 2012-13 version of the Drexel Dragons. After the Zips won their eighteenth straight conference game, Dan Dakich pronounced that Akron was "a lock" for an at large bid. As much as I like the Zips, especially Zeke Marshall, they haven't done enough to warrant being "a lock" for an at large bid. Their profile screams last season's Drexel team. They have one good non conference win over Middle Tennessee State, plus they swept the season series from last year's Sweet Sixteen Cinderella, Ohio (who again is good this season). But they have a bad loss to Coastal Carolina and now their MAC streak has ended with a really bad loss to Buffalo. Sorry, Akron, but you need to win the MAC Tournament now to make the dance. Otherwise, you will have the same fate of Drexel, a ton of wins in a row, but a trip to the NIT after not winning the conference tournament. I would like to be wrong otherwise, but I don't think so.
Creighton (24-7, 13-5 MVC, 35 RPI, 17 BPI, 20 KenPom) - After losing to St Mary's and likely staring at a second place finish in the Missouri Valley, the Bluejays found themselves a part of bubble talk. But they rallied to take the regular season MVC championship and their non conference resume is very strong. They have good non conference wins over Wisconsin, Arizona State, Akron, California, plus a win over Wichita State. The bad include road losses at Drake and Illinois State. The good far outweighs the bad. The Bluejays are in the dance.
Wichita State (24-7, 12-6 MVC, 40 RPI, 29 BPI, 35 KenPom) - The Shockers now find themselves a part of bubble talk, in large part to their own doing. Had they taken care of business at home in conference, Wichita State would have the regular season MVC championship and an at large bid sewn up. However, home losses to Evansville and Indiana State, along with a bad loss at Southern Illinois resulted in a second place finish in the Valley. However, the Shockers have a solid non conference resume; a huge road win at VCU, a neutral site win vs. Iowa, a road win at Air Force, plus a home win vs. Southern Miss. Add a win over Creighton and as long as Wichita State makes the MVC Tournament final, they should be fine. If the Shockers get upset along the way, then the bubble talk only intensifies.
Colorado State ( 22-7, 9-5 MWC, 17 RPI, 33 BPI, 28 KenPom) - The Rams are in pretty solid shape. The Mountain West has been a very strong conference and will likely have at least four teams in the tournament. In fact, the Rams really aren't part of the bubble talk at the moment, but things could change should they lose at Wyoming or home to Nevada. Colorado State has a strong resume with wins over Montana, Denver, Air Force, UNLV, Boise State and San Diego State. Their only bad loss was at UIC. Rams are pretty safe...for now.
UNLV (22-7, 9-5 MWC, 15 RPI, 25 BPI, 30 KenPom) - Again, the only reason UNLV, like Colorado State, is on here is that the Mountain West is unusually deep in teams this season and for a non Power Six conference, if you're not in first, you tend to be bubblicious. The Rebels should be just fine with wins at California, Iowa State, Colorado State, New Mexico and they swept San Diego State. Their only bad loss is at Fresno State. Even if they lose to Boise State (and they won't lose again to Fresno State), the Rebels are in the big dance. Book it.
San Diego State (20-8, 8-6 MWC, 33 RPI, 27 BPI, 26 KenPom) - This is where things start getting tricky in the Mountain West. Three teams based on their record should be in; New Mexico, Colorado State and UNLV. Then there are two teams that might be battling for one spot, but likely two at large spots, San Diego State and Boise State The Aztecs have a solid resume, especially from a non conference stand point with neutral site wins over UCLA and Indiana State (don't laugh, the Sycamores have some pretty strong non conference scalps this season). Plus wins over Colorado State, New Mexico and Boise State. Their only bad loss is at Wyoming. Still they need to win against Air Force, then the huge showdown at Boise State, which could likely lock an at large berth. Also, don't get upset in the first round of the Mountain West Tourney.
Boise State (20-8, 8-6 MWC, 44 RPI, 49 BPI, 52 KenPom) - With help from some other bubble teams imploding, the Broncos have made their way into bubble talk discussion. What helps is an impressive non conference road win at Creighton, coupled with conference wins over UNLV and Colorado State. The bad are losses at Utah and at Nevada. The Broncos have a tough conference schedule remaining; at UNLV and home to San Diego State. A win over the Rebels would be HUGE, but the game against San Diego State is probably most important. A nice run in the Mountain West Tourney could help too. Unless they win the MWC Tournament, the Broncos will definitely be sweating out Selection Sunday.
Belmont (24-6, 14-2 OVC, 25 RPI, 51 BPI, 40 KenPom) - The Bruins have been an especially solid team all season. The problem is their resume includes only a couple of good wins - Middle Tennessee State and Ohio are their best wins. Their worst losses aren't terrible - Northeastern, the CAA regular season champ, at neutral site, at UCF and probably their worst, at Tennessee State. But Belmont probably needs to win the Ohio Valley Tournament to get to the NCAA Tournament.
Kentucky (20-9, 11-5 SEC, 51 RPI, 43 BPI, 33 KenPom) - When Nerlens Noel went down for the season, many basketball experts said the Wildcats' at large bid was at risk. Then those experts sounded the alarm when in their next game, Kentucky lost by thirty at Tennessee. The Cats won their next three including an overtime win vs. Missouri before losing to Arkansas. As of this moment, Joe Lunardi has them as one of the last four in. I am here to tell you, it's not that bad. The good - The Wildcats have a neutral site win over Maryland and wins at Ole Miss, Missouri and Tennessee. You could probably say their worst loss was at Texas A&M. There are a lot of teams with worst losses (hello, Virginia). Kentucky needs to win at Georgia, then muster all their might to beat Florida and then win a few games in the SEC Tournament. If they can accomplish two of those three goals, the Cats are in the big dance.
Alabama (19-10, 11-5 SEC, 59 RPI, 68 BPI, KenPom) - The Crimson Tide are right there tied for second with Kentucky in the SEC. They are only one game behind Kentucky's record. Yet Bama is on the outside looking in. Yes, they have a neutral site win over Villanova and a win over Kentucky. But Alabama has some bad home losses to Mercer and Tulane. The Tide need to win at Ole Miss, a likely bubble buster game and defeat Georgia, plus they need to make the SEC Tournament final for any hope of making the tournament on Selection Sunday.
Missouri (21-8, 10-6 SEC, 32 RPI, 26 BPI, 70 KenPom) - The Tigers are probably on this list for the sole reason that they are tied for fourth in the SEC. But Missouri has little to worry about at the moment. They have a very good non conference resjme with neutral site wins over VCU and Illinois, along with a win over Bucknell and conference wins over Alabama, Ole Miss and Florida. Their lone bad loss is at LSU. Unless the Tigers implode by losing to Arkansas, then Tennessee and a quick exit in the SEC tournament, they are safely in the NCAA Tournament.
Ole Miss (21-8, 10-6 SEC, 58 RPI, 45 BPI, 50 KenPom) - Unlike the Tigers, the Rebels are in serious, serious trouble. A few weeks ago, they were a lock to make the NCAA Tournament. Now, they are on the outside looking in. You can't lose to both South Carolina and Mississippi State, two teams that are in the 200's in RPI. Their best wins are over Tennessee (twice), Arkansas and Missouri. Other than that, no signature non conference wins to hang their hat on. The Rebels are in the same spot as the Crimson Tide. They need to beat Alabama in the bubble buster game, then win at LSU, then win at least two games in the SEC Tournament. Anything less and it's an NIT bid.
Tennessee (17-11, 9-7 SEC, 56 RPI, 63 BPI, 63 KenPom) - Unlike the Rebels, the Volunteers have a good non conference win in defeating Wichita State. But other than home wins vs. Alabama and Kentucky, the Vols have little on their resume. The bad outweighs the good as Tennessee has lost twice to Georgia, who are below them in the standings. The Volunteers basically need to win the SEC Tournament to get into the NCAA Tournament.
Arkansas (18-11, 9-7 SEC, 75 RPI, 74 BPI, 68 KenPom) - I guess if you have to have Tennessee, you have to have Arkansas. They do have a non conference win over Oklahoma and wins over Florida, Missouri, Kentucky and Tennessee. The bad are losses at Vandy, at Texas A&M, at South Carolina and at LSU. For them to have any chance for an at large bid, they need to win at Missouri, then beat Texas A&M and then win at least two games in the SEC Tournament. Sound familiar? See the two SEC teams prior to them.
Middle Tennessee State (27-4, 19-1 Sun Belt, 24 RPI, 41 BPI, 27 KenPom) - The Blue Raiders have dominated the Sun Belt. They have a good win over Ole Miss that might come in handy if they are an at large contender on Selection Sunday. Their only bad loss is at Arkansas State. They have done everything they can, sans beat good teams on the road like Belmont, Akron (overtime) and Florida. They will be an interesting case should they not win the Sun Belt. Here's hoping they win the Sun Belt and make the question moot.
California (20-9, 12-5 PAC 12, 46 RPI, 47 BPI, KenPom) - After losing at Arizona State on February 7, the Golden Bears were 13-9, 7-5 in the PAC 12. They looked done. Now less than one month and seven straight wins later, Cal looks to be solidly in the tournament. They have swept Oregon, beat UCLA, Arizona and Colorado. Their bad losses are to Harvard at home, Washington at home and at Stanford. There are teams with a lot worse losses. Cal could sew things up with a win over Stanford plus a trip to the PAC 12 semifinals.
Colorado (19-9, 9-7 PAC 12, 29 RPI, 37 BPI, 49 KenPom) - The Buffaloes are starting to tread a little water having split their last four games. Still Colorado has a nice neutral site win over Baylor, plus wins over Air Force, Colorado State, California, Oregon and Arizona. The bad losses are road losses to Washington and Utah. The Buffs need to close out with a few wins at home vs. Oregon and Oregon State to make sure they punch their ticket to the tournament.
Arizona State (20-10, 9-8 PAC 12, 92 RPI, 67 BPI, 78 KenPom) - After defeating Cal on February 7, the Sun Devils were 18-5 and 7-3 in the PAC 12. Since then, Arizona State is 2-5. The good, a neutral site win over Arkansas, two wins over Colorado and a win over UCLA. The bad is bad; RPI is 92 (!), lost to DePaul at home, lost to Washington twice, home loss to Stanford and a road loss to Utah. Plus their final regular season game is at Arizona, a team they lost to at home by seventeen. Unless they shock the Wildcats and make it to the PAC 12 Tournament final, no at large for the Sun Devils.
Louisiana Tech (26-3, 16-0 WAC, 50 RPI, 64 BPI, 64 KenPom) - The Bulldogs have been terrific in a pretty decent WAC (Denver and New Mexico State each have nineteen wins). To be undefeated in conference this late in the season is impressive. They also have a home win over Southern Miss. Their only bad loss was at McNeese State. If they can win their last two conference games at Denver and at New Mexico State, plus make it to the WAC tournament finals, the NCAA Tournament committee will be hard pressed to turn away a thirty win team. Hope it doesn't come to that and that the Bulldogs win the WAC. We'll see.
St Mary's (26-5, 14-2 WCC, 41 RPI, 35 BPI, 19 KenPom) - Another season where the Gaels have done almost everything but beat Gonzaga. There were a couple of slip ups in non conference with losses to Pacific and Georgia Tech in the Anaheim Classic. And yes, the Zags beat them twice in conference. But St Mary's does have an impressive win over Creighton. If I were Randy Bennett, I better hope my team makes the WCC Tournament final. Anything less could make things interesting.
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