Showing posts with label Middle Tennessee. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Middle Tennessee. Show all posts
Monday, March 18, 2013
2013 NCAA Tournament Primer
"It's the most wonderful time of the year" - Andy Williams
Andy Williams wasn't really singing about Christmas...okay, he was. But really he should have been singing about March Madness, which really is all of March, since it started over two weeks ago with mid major tournament conference play. For those of you in NCAA Tournament Brackets or if you just like watching college basketball like me, here's some things to look for based on recent tournament history.
1) Pick Seven to Eight Double Digit Seeds to win in Round of 64 - Since 2006, with the exception of 2007 when only two double digit seeds made it past the Round 64, double digit seeds on average have won seven games in the Round of 64 (2012 - 9, 2011-6, 2010-8, 2009-8, 2008-6, 2006-8).
To go even further, since 2006, #12 seeds have won eleven Round of 64 games. #11 seeds have won thirteen Round of 64 games. #10 seeds have won twelve Round of 64 games. Since 2006, with the exception of 2007, A #13 seed has won at least one Round of 64 game.
Based on the odds, figure at least two #10 seeds, two #11 seeds, two #12 seeds and one #13 seed are going to win their Round of 64 games.
2) Don't Pick Double Digit Seeds in the Second Round - Since 2006, no more than three double digit seeds have advanced to the Sweet 16 (2012 -3, 2011-3, 2010-3,2009-1,2008-3,2007-none, 2006-2). So even if you think any team can win this year, temper your enthusiasm when it comes to double digit seeds in the second round. Pick maybe one or two exceptions and go with chalk. See #4 for more details.
3) #2 Seeds Often Die Before the Elite Eight - I saw a CBS statistic last night that only 42.5% of #2 seeds make it to the Elite Eight. That's less than half folks. If you are picking more than two #2 seeds to make it to the Elite Eight, check again. If you want to do well in your office pool, pick two #2 seeds to either lose in the Round of 32 or certainly in the Sweet Sixteen.
4) Know Where Certain Teams Are Playing - The Committee is often very generous in giving teams basically home games in the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament. This year is no exception - Michigan, Michigan State, California, Louisville and Ohio State are playing in their home state for the first two rounds. Kansas and Kansas State are playing in the familiar territory of Kansas City, Missouri, which hosted the Big 12 Tournament last week.
If you think for example VCU has a great chance of upsetting Michigan on what's basically a home court, you may want to rethink. Likewise, temper your enthusiasm for Iowa State/Notre Dame vs. Ohio State.
However, from #2, if you think a double digit seed is going to make it to the Sweet 16, look for a double digit seed playing on a neutral site. Minnesota, my #11 pick to go to the Sweet 16 is playing in Austin, Texas. Florida has no home court advantage there. Throw in some good guards and I think the Gophers make the Sweet 16.
5) When Picking Teams in a Certain Round, Check To See if Strengths Are Neutralized...Or Not - It pays to know your teams. If you are a Ken Pomeroy insider, you might know that Middle Tennessee is 30th in the country in three point percentage offense and St Mary's is #300th in three point field goal percentage defense. Likewise, Belmont is #33 in the country in three point field goal percentage offense and Arizona is #276 in the country in three point field goal percentage defense. Needless to say, I like Middle Tennessee and Belmont in those matchups.
Even more stats for you. VCU is #1 in the country in turnover percentage defnse at 28.7 percent. But Michigan is #1 in the country in turnover percentage on offense at only 14.3 percent. The Wolverines are #11 in the country in 2 pt field goal percentage offense. That doesn't bode well for the Rams who are 258th in the country in 2 pt field goal percentage defense.
I heard Jay Bilas basically say that the committee gave VCU a golden opportunity of getting the Rams to the Elite Eight. I disagree. By putting VCU in a potential second round matchup in Auburn Hills against a Michigan team that doesn't turn the ball over, I say the committee didn't do the Rams any favors at all.
Further down the road, many experts have picked Louisville to win it all. And as many people know, Louisville's strength is their press, as they are second to VCU in the country in turnover defensive percentage at 27.6 percent. However, they may likely face St Louis in the Sweet Sixteen. As the Rams have twice found out, the Billikens are strong with the ball. St Louis is #46 in the country in turnover percentage offense at 17.6 percent and #23 in the country in turnover percentage defense. I like the Billikens to knock off the Cardinals.
I stopped doing brackets years ago because it's more fun to watch the games play out. That being said, on request, I am contributing to a friend's site this year with some picks. Here's who I like;
At Large Play In Games - As I noted, I like Middle Tennessee to beat St Mary's. Middle Tennessee played a good non conference schedule, better than people think. Plus one of their strengths, shooting the three is a major weakness for the Gaels.
Boise State-LaSalle is a toss up to me. So I will pick the Broncos to win a close one. I think either team is capable of beating Kansas State. So I have Boise as a double digit seed winner in Round of 64
Round of 64 Upsets - Middle Tennessee continues their run knocking off a Memphis team whose best non conference win was Tennessee. Blue Raiders prove they're the second best team in Tennessee (Belmont is first).
Belmont's three point shooting prowess knocks off Arizona. Oregon is playing really well. I don't like Oklahoma State's non conference. Like the Ducks to win a #5-#12 game.
This is a slight upset with a #9 over a #8. Wichita State likes physical play and had a strong non conference schedule . They will beat Pittsburgh.
I have #9 Nova beating #8 North Carolina as well another #9, Missouri beating #8 Colorado State, So why not make it a canasta and say Temple, another #9, beats mercurial #8 NC State.
As I noted, Boise takes out Kansas State for the sixth straight season a #13 beats a #4.
Fred Hoiberg's #10 Iowa State beats #7 Notre Dame in a shootout.
#11 Minnesota beats a depleted #6 UCLA team without Jordan Adams.
Everyone thinks #11 Bucknell can beat #6 Butler in Lexington. But that's not going to be the upset in that bracket. I like #14 Davidson, a veteran team that's terrific on offense to beat #3 Marquette. Something tells me that the Golden Eagles will be looking ahead at a potential return match up with Butler. The Wildcats will stun them.
Finally #10 Colorado will mercifully end #7 Illinois' wacky season.
Everything else is chalk. Sorry my Iona friends. The Gaels will give the Buckeyes a good run. But in the end, Iona doesn't have enough defense to beat Ohio State.
Round of 32 - Based on tournament history, two #2 seeds will be gone before the Elite Eight. So why not get rid of one of them in the Round of 32. Creighton, who is more than just Doug McDermott, knocks off Duke.
I love VCU. And if they weren't playing Michigan, let alone playing Michigan in Auburn Hills, I could see them beating most other teams left in the Round of 32. But the Wolverines are a bad match up for the Rams, especially on what amounts to a home court. Michigan advances.
As I noted, love Minnesota's guards. They handle the Florida press and we at least have one double digit seed go to the Sweet 16.
A slight upset will be #5 UNLV over #4 Syracuse. Love Moser and Bennett on the Rebels.
Believe it or not I have chalk with all the other teams - Louisville, who pounds undisciplined Missouri again, St Louis, Michigan State, Gonzaga, Wisconsin, New Mexico, Ohio State (only because they are playing in Dayton), Kansas, Georgetown, Indiana, Butler and Miami.
Sweet 16 - I really believe St Louis knocks off Louisville. Love their guard play with Jett and Mitchell. Michigan State and the Fighting Izzos knock off Creighton.
Wisconsin has been playing really well. I think they take out Gonzaga. New Mexico is such a terrific defensive team and they have played such a strong schedule overall. Snell is the difference in beating Ohio State.
Michigan is a much better match up than VCU for Kansas. McElmore, Withey, Johnson etc beat the Wolverines. Meanwhile Georgetown's Otto Porter guns down Minnesota.
Indiana outlasts UNLV in a shootout. Miami's length, especially at guard with Larkin and Scott will be too much for Clarke and Butler.
Elite Eight - Something tells me Michigan State beats St Louis. I never bet against Izzo with a Final Four on the line.
New Mexico knocks off another Big Ten team in Wisconsin. Defense wins the day here.
I say there has to be one #1 seed in the Final Four. Kansas makes Jaden Daly happy and ends Georgetown's run.
Hate to say it for all those Larranaga haters out there, but he's got a really good team. Again Scott and Durand are too much for Indiana.
Final Four - Michigan State ends New Mexico's run. Meanwhile, Miami beats Kansas in a dandy.
Final - I have been impressed with Miami all season. Scott and Larkin take home the title and beat Michigan State.
Monday, March 4, 2013
Bubble, Bubble, Toil and Trouble
With two weeks left until Selection Sunday, mid major conference tournaments start this week. Often these tournaments throw a crimp in the at large hopes of both Power Six conference teams and non Power Six conference teams. There are some teams that really have locked at large bids; Butler, VCU, Saint Louis, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and now North Carolina are just a few that come to mind. There are over thirty teams that are probably in bubble consideration. A few teams have already played their way out of bubble consideration - St John's, Charlotte, Indiana State, Massachusetts, Iowa and BYU are examples. Let's see who is still bubblicious.
LaSalle (20-7, 10-4 A-10, 39 RPI , 48 BPI, 47 KenPom ) - The Explorers are solidly in the top four of the Atlantic 10. They have good wins over Villanova, Butler and at VCU. Their only bad loss was at the beginning of the year to Central Connecticut State. With two remaining regular season games left vs. George Washington and at St Louis, LaSalle looks likely to be an NCAA at large team even if they lose to the Bilikens. The Explorers though need to avoid a loss to the Colonials and an early A-10 tournament exit.
Temple (21-8, 9-5 A-10, 42 RPI, 57 BPI, 76 KenPom) - The Owls, tied for fourth in the A-10, have a very unusual resume. They have some very good wins; Villanova, neutral site over Syracuse, Saint Louis and LaSalle. But Temple also has some very bad losses; home losses to St. Bonaventure and Duquesne (home loss to Canisius didn't help either). The Owls need to secure their spot in the NCAA Tournament by beating some Rams; Fordham and especially VCU, plus make sure to get to the A-10 semifinals. Otherwise, they could be seriously sweating Selection Sunday.
North Carolina State (21-8, 10-6 ACC, 23 RPI, 19 BPI, KenPom) - With their road win at Georgia Tech combined with Virginia blowing a late lead at Boston College, the Wolfpack have probably done enough to make the NCAA Tournament. They have a neutral site win over UConn, a big win at home over then #1 ranked Duke, and a home win over North Carolina. Their only bad loss is at Wake Forest, which compared to many other bubble teams isn't bad at all. They have two games left in conference; home to Wake and at Florida State. Win those two games, get to the ACC tournament semifinals and the Wolfpack will be fine. Any slips, well it then gets a little interesting.
Virginia (20-9, 10-6 ACC, 62 RPI, 40 BPI, 18 KenPom) - Here is a serious Jekyll and Hyde profile. Good wins over Tennessee, North Carolina, NC State, at Maryland and recently Duke. Really bad neutral site loss to ODU, home loss to Delaware, losses on the road at Wake Forest, Clemson and most recently, today to Boston College. They need to win at Florida State and then win the battle of the ACC bubble teams when they face Maryland at home. A trip to the ACC Tournament semifinals could definitely help. Here's a team that is truly on the bubble on Selection Sunday.
Maryland (20-9, 8-8 ACC, 68 RPI, 52 BPI, 62 KenPom) - The Terps are on the wrong side of the bubble at the moment. Their only good wins are home to NC State and of course Duke. The bad losses are getting swept by Florida State and road losses to Georgia Tech and Boston College. If they want any chance of making the tournament they have to win at home vs. North Carolina and win at Virginia, so that they are at least above .500 in conference. Also, Maryland really needs to make the ACC Tournament semifinals as well. The game against Virginia very well will decide their fate.
Villanova (18-12, 9-8 Big East, 55 RPI, 62 BPI, 55 KenPom) - All the Wildcats had to do was hold on and win in regulation against Pittsburgh and their ticket to the big dance would have been punched. Alas, Nova couldn't hold on and lost to the Panthers in overtime. Thus another team sits squarely on the bubble. The good; wins over Louisville, Syracuse, at UConn and Marquette. The bad; home loss to Columbia (?), at Seton Hall and home to Providence. Nova needs to beat Georgetown, no easy task, and win at least one game in the Big East Tournament. Otherwise, there will be a home game in the NIT awaiting the Wildcats.
Cincinnati (20-9, 8-8 Big East, 48 RPI, 30 BPI, 34 KenPom) - A lot of people have the Bearcats on the bubble, due in large part to their .500 record in the Big East. I don't see that. I think they are solidly in at this moment. They have solid neutral site non conference wins over Iowa State and Oregon. They also have a win over Alabama, a road win at Pittsburgh and Marquette. The only possibly considered bad loss is a home loss to St John's. But there are teams on the bubble with far, far worse losses. Bearcats could use a win over Louisville, definitely a win over South Florida, plus at least one Big East Tourney win to end the bubble discussion.
Illinois (21-9, 8-8 Big Ten, 34 RPI, 60 BPI, 39 KenPom) - Another team that has only merited bubble discussion due to their .500 record in the Big Ten. They have a lot of good wins; Butler, at Gonzaga, Indiana, at Minnesota and Ohio State. Their only bad losses are at Purdue and home to Northwestern. They should be in good shape but they can't afford a loss at Iowa. Another road game with Ohio State will be difficult to win. The Fighting Illini should at least win one Big Ten Tourney game just to make sure. But they should be quite fine for an at large at the moment.
Minnesota (20-9, 8-8 Big Ten, 16 RPI, 20 BPI, 14 KenPom) - Again, another Big Ten team that is only getting bubble talk due to their .500 conference record. A lot of good wins; Memphis, Michigan State, at Illinois, Indiana and Wisconsin. The only bad loss is at Northwestern. Still, the Gophers could make things really interesting for themselves since they have two conference road games left at Nebraska and at Purdue. Lose one or heaven forbid, both and Minnesota will need to make a serious run in the Big Ten Tournament to make up for those losses. If the Gophers win both road games, they will have twenty two wins plus an above .500 conference record. That should easily do the trick.
Baylor (17-12, 8-8 Big 12, 60 RPI, 46 BPI, 51 KenPom) - The Bears are looking at the wrong side of the at large tracks right now. They only have two good wins; at Kentucky and home over Oklahoma State. Other than that, a win over BYU, which looked better earlier in the season. The bad - home losses to Charleston and Northwestern. Baylor must win at Texas, then must, must, MUST beat Kansas at home, plus make a run in the Big 12 Tournament. Otherwise, hello NIT.
Iowa State (19-9, 9-7 Big 12, 53 RPI, 42 BPI, 44 KenPom) - Unlike their Big 12 brethren Baylor, Iowa State looks to be on the right side of the bubble at the moment. They have a wins over Oklahoma State and Oklahoma. Plus, they swept the season series vs. Baylor, which will definitely be a measuring stick of comparison between the two teams on Selection Sunday. What makes Iowa State a bubble team is a glaring lack of a good non conference win. Best was vs. BYU, but see Baylor. They also have road losses at Texas Tech and Texas. They could use wins at Oklahoma State and West Virgina, plus one Big 12 Tournament win.
Southern Miss (22-7, 11-3 CUSA, 36 RPI, 59 BPI, 56 KenPom) - The Golden Eagles are on this list, well, I guess just based on their record and their RPI. Southern Miss is definitely on the wrong side of the bubble right now. There are really no bad losses, except maybe at UCF. However, there are no good wins, they lost to every good non conference team they played and most importantly were swept by Memphis. The Golden Eagles have to win the CUSA Tournament. Otherwise, it's NIT for them.
Akron (23-5, 13-1 MAC, 47 RPI, 50 BPI, 54 KenPom) - Ladies and Gentlemen, your 2012-13 version of the Drexel Dragons. After the Zips won their eighteenth straight conference game, Dan Dakich pronounced that Akron was "a lock" for an at large bid. As much as I like the Zips, especially Zeke Marshall, they haven't done enough to warrant being "a lock" for an at large bid. Their profile screams last season's Drexel team. They have one good non conference win over Middle Tennessee State, plus they swept the season series from last year's Sweet Sixteen Cinderella, Ohio (who again is good this season). But they have a bad loss to Coastal Carolina and now their MAC streak has ended with a really bad loss to Buffalo. Sorry, Akron, but you need to win the MAC Tournament now to make the dance. Otherwise, you will have the same fate of Drexel, a ton of wins in a row, but a trip to the NIT after not winning the conference tournament. I would like to be wrong otherwise, but I don't think so.
Creighton (24-7, 13-5 MVC, 35 RPI, 17 BPI, 20 KenPom) - After losing to St Mary's and likely staring at a second place finish in the Missouri Valley, the Bluejays found themselves a part of bubble talk. But they rallied to take the regular season MVC championship and their non conference resume is very strong. They have good non conference wins over Wisconsin, Arizona State, Akron, California, plus a win over Wichita State. The bad include road losses at Drake and Illinois State. The good far outweighs the bad. The Bluejays are in the dance.
Wichita State (24-7, 12-6 MVC, 40 RPI, 29 BPI, 35 KenPom) - The Shockers now find themselves a part of bubble talk, in large part to their own doing. Had they taken care of business at home in conference, Wichita State would have the regular season MVC championship and an at large bid sewn up. However, home losses to Evansville and Indiana State, along with a bad loss at Southern Illinois resulted in a second place finish in the Valley. However, the Shockers have a solid non conference resume; a huge road win at VCU, a neutral site win vs. Iowa, a road win at Air Force, plus a home win vs. Southern Miss. Add a win over Creighton and as long as Wichita State makes the MVC Tournament final, they should be fine. If the Shockers get upset along the way, then the bubble talk only intensifies.
Colorado State ( 22-7, 9-5 MWC, 17 RPI, 33 BPI, 28 KenPom) - The Rams are in pretty solid shape. The Mountain West has been a very strong conference and will likely have at least four teams in the tournament. In fact, the Rams really aren't part of the bubble talk at the moment, but things could change should they lose at Wyoming or home to Nevada. Colorado State has a strong resume with wins over Montana, Denver, Air Force, UNLV, Boise State and San Diego State. Their only bad loss was at UIC. Rams are pretty safe...for now.
UNLV (22-7, 9-5 MWC, 15 RPI, 25 BPI, 30 KenPom) - Again, the only reason UNLV, like Colorado State, is on here is that the Mountain West is unusually deep in teams this season and for a non Power Six conference, if you're not in first, you tend to be bubblicious. The Rebels should be just fine with wins at California, Iowa State, Colorado State, New Mexico and they swept San Diego State. Their only bad loss is at Fresno State. Even if they lose to Boise State (and they won't lose again to Fresno State), the Rebels are in the big dance. Book it.
San Diego State (20-8, 8-6 MWC, 33 RPI, 27 BPI, 26 KenPom) - This is where things start getting tricky in the Mountain West. Three teams based on their record should be in; New Mexico, Colorado State and UNLV. Then there are two teams that might be battling for one spot, but likely two at large spots, San Diego State and Boise State The Aztecs have a solid resume, especially from a non conference stand point with neutral site wins over UCLA and Indiana State (don't laugh, the Sycamores have some pretty strong non conference scalps this season). Plus wins over Colorado State, New Mexico and Boise State. Their only bad loss is at Wyoming. Still they need to win against Air Force, then the huge showdown at Boise State, which could likely lock an at large berth. Also, don't get upset in the first round of the Mountain West Tourney.
Boise State (20-8, 8-6 MWC, 44 RPI, 49 BPI, 52 KenPom) - With help from some other bubble teams imploding, the Broncos have made their way into bubble talk discussion. What helps is an impressive non conference road win at Creighton, coupled with conference wins over UNLV and Colorado State. The bad are losses at Utah and at Nevada. The Broncos have a tough conference schedule remaining; at UNLV and home to San Diego State. A win over the Rebels would be HUGE, but the game against San Diego State is probably most important. A nice run in the Mountain West Tourney could help too. Unless they win the MWC Tournament, the Broncos will definitely be sweating out Selection Sunday.
Belmont (24-6, 14-2 OVC, 25 RPI, 51 BPI, 40 KenPom) - The Bruins have been an especially solid team all season. The problem is their resume includes only a couple of good wins - Middle Tennessee State and Ohio are their best wins. Their worst losses aren't terrible - Northeastern, the CAA regular season champ, at neutral site, at UCF and probably their worst, at Tennessee State. But Belmont probably needs to win the Ohio Valley Tournament to get to the NCAA Tournament.
Kentucky (20-9, 11-5 SEC, 51 RPI, 43 BPI, 33 KenPom) - When Nerlens Noel went down for the season, many basketball experts said the Wildcats' at large bid was at risk. Then those experts sounded the alarm when in their next game, Kentucky lost by thirty at Tennessee. The Cats won their next three including an overtime win vs. Missouri before losing to Arkansas. As of this moment, Joe Lunardi has them as one of the last four in. I am here to tell you, it's not that bad. The good - The Wildcats have a neutral site win over Maryland and wins at Ole Miss, Missouri and Tennessee. You could probably say their worst loss was at Texas A&M. There are a lot of teams with worst losses (hello, Virginia). Kentucky needs to win at Georgia, then muster all their might to beat Florida and then win a few games in the SEC Tournament. If they can accomplish two of those three goals, the Cats are in the big dance.
Alabama (19-10, 11-5 SEC, 59 RPI, 68 BPI, KenPom) - The Crimson Tide are right there tied for second with Kentucky in the SEC. They are only one game behind Kentucky's record. Yet Bama is on the outside looking in. Yes, they have a neutral site win over Villanova and a win over Kentucky. But Alabama has some bad home losses to Mercer and Tulane. The Tide need to win at Ole Miss, a likely bubble buster game and defeat Georgia, plus they need to make the SEC Tournament final for any hope of making the tournament on Selection Sunday.
Missouri (21-8, 10-6 SEC, 32 RPI, 26 BPI, 70 KenPom) - The Tigers are probably on this list for the sole reason that they are tied for fourth in the SEC. But Missouri has little to worry about at the moment. They have a very good non conference resjme with neutral site wins over VCU and Illinois, along with a win over Bucknell and conference wins over Alabama, Ole Miss and Florida. Their lone bad loss is at LSU. Unless the Tigers implode by losing to Arkansas, then Tennessee and a quick exit in the SEC tournament, they are safely in the NCAA Tournament.
Ole Miss (21-8, 10-6 SEC, 58 RPI, 45 BPI, 50 KenPom) - Unlike the Tigers, the Rebels are in serious, serious trouble. A few weeks ago, they were a lock to make the NCAA Tournament. Now, they are on the outside looking in. You can't lose to both South Carolina and Mississippi State, two teams that are in the 200's in RPI. Their best wins are over Tennessee (twice), Arkansas and Missouri. Other than that, no signature non conference wins to hang their hat on. The Rebels are in the same spot as the Crimson Tide. They need to beat Alabama in the bubble buster game, then win at LSU, then win at least two games in the SEC Tournament. Anything less and it's an NIT bid.
Tennessee (17-11, 9-7 SEC, 56 RPI, 63 BPI, 63 KenPom) - Unlike the Rebels, the Volunteers have a good non conference win in defeating Wichita State. But other than home wins vs. Alabama and Kentucky, the Vols have little on their resume. The bad outweighs the good as Tennessee has lost twice to Georgia, who are below them in the standings. The Volunteers basically need to win the SEC Tournament to get into the NCAA Tournament.
Arkansas (18-11, 9-7 SEC, 75 RPI, 74 BPI, 68 KenPom) - I guess if you have to have Tennessee, you have to have Arkansas. They do have a non conference win over Oklahoma and wins over Florida, Missouri, Kentucky and Tennessee. The bad are losses at Vandy, at Texas A&M, at South Carolina and at LSU. For them to have any chance for an at large bid, they need to win at Missouri, then beat Texas A&M and then win at least two games in the SEC Tournament. Sound familiar? See the two SEC teams prior to them.
Middle Tennessee State (27-4, 19-1 Sun Belt, 24 RPI, 41 BPI, 27 KenPom) - The Blue Raiders have dominated the Sun Belt. They have a good win over Ole Miss that might come in handy if they are an at large contender on Selection Sunday. Their only bad loss is at Arkansas State. They have done everything they can, sans beat good teams on the road like Belmont, Akron (overtime) and Florida. They will be an interesting case should they not win the Sun Belt. Here's hoping they win the Sun Belt and make the question moot.
California (20-9, 12-5 PAC 12, 46 RPI, 47 BPI, KenPom) - After losing at Arizona State on February 7, the Golden Bears were 13-9, 7-5 in the PAC 12. They looked done. Now less than one month and seven straight wins later, Cal looks to be solidly in the tournament. They have swept Oregon, beat UCLA, Arizona and Colorado. Their bad losses are to Harvard at home, Washington at home and at Stanford. There are teams with a lot worse losses. Cal could sew things up with a win over Stanford plus a trip to the PAC 12 semifinals.
Colorado (19-9, 9-7 PAC 12, 29 RPI, 37 BPI, 49 KenPom) - The Buffaloes are starting to tread a little water having split their last four games. Still Colorado has a nice neutral site win over Baylor, plus wins over Air Force, Colorado State, California, Oregon and Arizona. The bad losses are road losses to Washington and Utah. The Buffs need to close out with a few wins at home vs. Oregon and Oregon State to make sure they punch their ticket to the tournament.
Arizona State (20-10, 9-8 PAC 12, 92 RPI, 67 BPI, 78 KenPom) - After defeating Cal on February 7, the Sun Devils were 18-5 and 7-3 in the PAC 12. Since then, Arizona State is 2-5. The good, a neutral site win over Arkansas, two wins over Colorado and a win over UCLA. The bad is bad; RPI is 92 (!), lost to DePaul at home, lost to Washington twice, home loss to Stanford and a road loss to Utah. Plus their final regular season game is at Arizona, a team they lost to at home by seventeen. Unless they shock the Wildcats and make it to the PAC 12 Tournament final, no at large for the Sun Devils.
Louisiana Tech (26-3, 16-0 WAC, 50 RPI, 64 BPI, 64 KenPom) - The Bulldogs have been terrific in a pretty decent WAC (Denver and New Mexico State each have nineteen wins). To be undefeated in conference this late in the season is impressive. They also have a home win over Southern Miss. Their only bad loss was at McNeese State. If they can win their last two conference games at Denver and at New Mexico State, plus make it to the WAC tournament finals, the NCAA Tournament committee will be hard pressed to turn away a thirty win team. Hope it doesn't come to that and that the Bulldogs win the WAC. We'll see.
St Mary's (26-5, 14-2 WCC, 41 RPI, 35 BPI, 19 KenPom) - Another season where the Gaels have done almost everything but beat Gonzaga. There were a couple of slip ups in non conference with losses to Pacific and Georgia Tech in the Anaheim Classic. And yes, the Zags beat them twice in conference. But St Mary's does have an impressive win over Creighton. If I were Randy Bennett, I better hope my team makes the WCC Tournament final. Anything less could make things interesting.
LaSalle (20-7, 10-4 A-10, 39 RPI , 48 BPI, 47 KenPom ) - The Explorers are solidly in the top four of the Atlantic 10. They have good wins over Villanova, Butler and at VCU. Their only bad loss was at the beginning of the year to Central Connecticut State. With two remaining regular season games left vs. George Washington and at St Louis, LaSalle looks likely to be an NCAA at large team even if they lose to the Bilikens. The Explorers though need to avoid a loss to the Colonials and an early A-10 tournament exit.
Temple (21-8, 9-5 A-10, 42 RPI, 57 BPI, 76 KenPom) - The Owls, tied for fourth in the A-10, have a very unusual resume. They have some very good wins; Villanova, neutral site over Syracuse, Saint Louis and LaSalle. But Temple also has some very bad losses; home losses to St. Bonaventure and Duquesne (home loss to Canisius didn't help either). The Owls need to secure their spot in the NCAA Tournament by beating some Rams; Fordham and especially VCU, plus make sure to get to the A-10 semifinals. Otherwise, they could be seriously sweating Selection Sunday.
North Carolina State (21-8, 10-6 ACC, 23 RPI, 19 BPI, KenPom) - With their road win at Georgia Tech combined with Virginia blowing a late lead at Boston College, the Wolfpack have probably done enough to make the NCAA Tournament. They have a neutral site win over UConn, a big win at home over then #1 ranked Duke, and a home win over North Carolina. Their only bad loss is at Wake Forest, which compared to many other bubble teams isn't bad at all. They have two games left in conference; home to Wake and at Florida State. Win those two games, get to the ACC tournament semifinals and the Wolfpack will be fine. Any slips, well it then gets a little interesting.
Virginia (20-9, 10-6 ACC, 62 RPI, 40 BPI, 18 KenPom) - Here is a serious Jekyll and Hyde profile. Good wins over Tennessee, North Carolina, NC State, at Maryland and recently Duke. Really bad neutral site loss to ODU, home loss to Delaware, losses on the road at Wake Forest, Clemson and most recently, today to Boston College. They need to win at Florida State and then win the battle of the ACC bubble teams when they face Maryland at home. A trip to the ACC Tournament semifinals could definitely help. Here's a team that is truly on the bubble on Selection Sunday.
Maryland (20-9, 8-8 ACC, 68 RPI, 52 BPI, 62 KenPom) - The Terps are on the wrong side of the bubble at the moment. Their only good wins are home to NC State and of course Duke. The bad losses are getting swept by Florida State and road losses to Georgia Tech and Boston College. If they want any chance of making the tournament they have to win at home vs. North Carolina and win at Virginia, so that they are at least above .500 in conference. Also, Maryland really needs to make the ACC Tournament semifinals as well. The game against Virginia very well will decide their fate.
Villanova (18-12, 9-8 Big East, 55 RPI, 62 BPI, 55 KenPom) - All the Wildcats had to do was hold on and win in regulation against Pittsburgh and their ticket to the big dance would have been punched. Alas, Nova couldn't hold on and lost to the Panthers in overtime. Thus another team sits squarely on the bubble. The good; wins over Louisville, Syracuse, at UConn and Marquette. The bad; home loss to Columbia (?), at Seton Hall and home to Providence. Nova needs to beat Georgetown, no easy task, and win at least one game in the Big East Tournament. Otherwise, there will be a home game in the NIT awaiting the Wildcats.
Cincinnati (20-9, 8-8 Big East, 48 RPI, 30 BPI, 34 KenPom) - A lot of people have the Bearcats on the bubble, due in large part to their .500 record in the Big East. I don't see that. I think they are solidly in at this moment. They have solid neutral site non conference wins over Iowa State and Oregon. They also have a win over Alabama, a road win at Pittsburgh and Marquette. The only possibly considered bad loss is a home loss to St John's. But there are teams on the bubble with far, far worse losses. Bearcats could use a win over Louisville, definitely a win over South Florida, plus at least one Big East Tourney win to end the bubble discussion.
Illinois (21-9, 8-8 Big Ten, 34 RPI, 60 BPI, 39 KenPom) - Another team that has only merited bubble discussion due to their .500 record in the Big Ten. They have a lot of good wins; Butler, at Gonzaga, Indiana, at Minnesota and Ohio State. Their only bad losses are at Purdue and home to Northwestern. They should be in good shape but they can't afford a loss at Iowa. Another road game with Ohio State will be difficult to win. The Fighting Illini should at least win one Big Ten Tourney game just to make sure. But they should be quite fine for an at large at the moment.
Minnesota (20-9, 8-8 Big Ten, 16 RPI, 20 BPI, 14 KenPom) - Again, another Big Ten team that is only getting bubble talk due to their .500 conference record. A lot of good wins; Memphis, Michigan State, at Illinois, Indiana and Wisconsin. The only bad loss is at Northwestern. Still, the Gophers could make things really interesting for themselves since they have two conference road games left at Nebraska and at Purdue. Lose one or heaven forbid, both and Minnesota will need to make a serious run in the Big Ten Tournament to make up for those losses. If the Gophers win both road games, they will have twenty two wins plus an above .500 conference record. That should easily do the trick.
Baylor (17-12, 8-8 Big 12, 60 RPI, 46 BPI, 51 KenPom) - The Bears are looking at the wrong side of the at large tracks right now. They only have two good wins; at Kentucky and home over Oklahoma State. Other than that, a win over BYU, which looked better earlier in the season. The bad - home losses to Charleston and Northwestern. Baylor must win at Texas, then must, must, MUST beat Kansas at home, plus make a run in the Big 12 Tournament. Otherwise, hello NIT.
Iowa State (19-9, 9-7 Big 12, 53 RPI, 42 BPI, 44 KenPom) - Unlike their Big 12 brethren Baylor, Iowa State looks to be on the right side of the bubble at the moment. They have a wins over Oklahoma State and Oklahoma. Plus, they swept the season series vs. Baylor, which will definitely be a measuring stick of comparison between the two teams on Selection Sunday. What makes Iowa State a bubble team is a glaring lack of a good non conference win. Best was vs. BYU, but see Baylor. They also have road losses at Texas Tech and Texas. They could use wins at Oklahoma State and West Virgina, plus one Big 12 Tournament win.
Southern Miss (22-7, 11-3 CUSA, 36 RPI, 59 BPI, 56 KenPom) - The Golden Eagles are on this list, well, I guess just based on their record and their RPI. Southern Miss is definitely on the wrong side of the bubble right now. There are really no bad losses, except maybe at UCF. However, there are no good wins, they lost to every good non conference team they played and most importantly were swept by Memphis. The Golden Eagles have to win the CUSA Tournament. Otherwise, it's NIT for them.
Akron (23-5, 13-1 MAC, 47 RPI, 50 BPI, 54 KenPom) - Ladies and Gentlemen, your 2012-13 version of the Drexel Dragons. After the Zips won their eighteenth straight conference game, Dan Dakich pronounced that Akron was "a lock" for an at large bid. As much as I like the Zips, especially Zeke Marshall, they haven't done enough to warrant being "a lock" for an at large bid. Their profile screams last season's Drexel team. They have one good non conference win over Middle Tennessee State, plus they swept the season series from last year's Sweet Sixteen Cinderella, Ohio (who again is good this season). But they have a bad loss to Coastal Carolina and now their MAC streak has ended with a really bad loss to Buffalo. Sorry, Akron, but you need to win the MAC Tournament now to make the dance. Otherwise, you will have the same fate of Drexel, a ton of wins in a row, but a trip to the NIT after not winning the conference tournament. I would like to be wrong otherwise, but I don't think so.
Creighton (24-7, 13-5 MVC, 35 RPI, 17 BPI, 20 KenPom) - After losing to St Mary's and likely staring at a second place finish in the Missouri Valley, the Bluejays found themselves a part of bubble talk. But they rallied to take the regular season MVC championship and their non conference resume is very strong. They have good non conference wins over Wisconsin, Arizona State, Akron, California, plus a win over Wichita State. The bad include road losses at Drake and Illinois State. The good far outweighs the bad. The Bluejays are in the dance.
Wichita State (24-7, 12-6 MVC, 40 RPI, 29 BPI, 35 KenPom) - The Shockers now find themselves a part of bubble talk, in large part to their own doing. Had they taken care of business at home in conference, Wichita State would have the regular season MVC championship and an at large bid sewn up. However, home losses to Evansville and Indiana State, along with a bad loss at Southern Illinois resulted in a second place finish in the Valley. However, the Shockers have a solid non conference resume; a huge road win at VCU, a neutral site win vs. Iowa, a road win at Air Force, plus a home win vs. Southern Miss. Add a win over Creighton and as long as Wichita State makes the MVC Tournament final, they should be fine. If the Shockers get upset along the way, then the bubble talk only intensifies.
Colorado State ( 22-7, 9-5 MWC, 17 RPI, 33 BPI, 28 KenPom) - The Rams are in pretty solid shape. The Mountain West has been a very strong conference and will likely have at least four teams in the tournament. In fact, the Rams really aren't part of the bubble talk at the moment, but things could change should they lose at Wyoming or home to Nevada. Colorado State has a strong resume with wins over Montana, Denver, Air Force, UNLV, Boise State and San Diego State. Their only bad loss was at UIC. Rams are pretty safe...for now.
UNLV (22-7, 9-5 MWC, 15 RPI, 25 BPI, 30 KenPom) - Again, the only reason UNLV, like Colorado State, is on here is that the Mountain West is unusually deep in teams this season and for a non Power Six conference, if you're not in first, you tend to be bubblicious. The Rebels should be just fine with wins at California, Iowa State, Colorado State, New Mexico and they swept San Diego State. Their only bad loss is at Fresno State. Even if they lose to Boise State (and they won't lose again to Fresno State), the Rebels are in the big dance. Book it.
San Diego State (20-8, 8-6 MWC, 33 RPI, 27 BPI, 26 KenPom) - This is where things start getting tricky in the Mountain West. Three teams based on their record should be in; New Mexico, Colorado State and UNLV. Then there are two teams that might be battling for one spot, but likely two at large spots, San Diego State and Boise State The Aztecs have a solid resume, especially from a non conference stand point with neutral site wins over UCLA and Indiana State (don't laugh, the Sycamores have some pretty strong non conference scalps this season). Plus wins over Colorado State, New Mexico and Boise State. Their only bad loss is at Wyoming. Still they need to win against Air Force, then the huge showdown at Boise State, which could likely lock an at large berth. Also, don't get upset in the first round of the Mountain West Tourney.
Boise State (20-8, 8-6 MWC, 44 RPI, 49 BPI, 52 KenPom) - With help from some other bubble teams imploding, the Broncos have made their way into bubble talk discussion. What helps is an impressive non conference road win at Creighton, coupled with conference wins over UNLV and Colorado State. The bad are losses at Utah and at Nevada. The Broncos have a tough conference schedule remaining; at UNLV and home to San Diego State. A win over the Rebels would be HUGE, but the game against San Diego State is probably most important. A nice run in the Mountain West Tourney could help too. Unless they win the MWC Tournament, the Broncos will definitely be sweating out Selection Sunday.
Belmont (24-6, 14-2 OVC, 25 RPI, 51 BPI, 40 KenPom) - The Bruins have been an especially solid team all season. The problem is their resume includes only a couple of good wins - Middle Tennessee State and Ohio are their best wins. Their worst losses aren't terrible - Northeastern, the CAA regular season champ, at neutral site, at UCF and probably their worst, at Tennessee State. But Belmont probably needs to win the Ohio Valley Tournament to get to the NCAA Tournament.
Kentucky (20-9, 11-5 SEC, 51 RPI, 43 BPI, 33 KenPom) - When Nerlens Noel went down for the season, many basketball experts said the Wildcats' at large bid was at risk. Then those experts sounded the alarm when in their next game, Kentucky lost by thirty at Tennessee. The Cats won their next three including an overtime win vs. Missouri before losing to Arkansas. As of this moment, Joe Lunardi has them as one of the last four in. I am here to tell you, it's not that bad. The good - The Wildcats have a neutral site win over Maryland and wins at Ole Miss, Missouri and Tennessee. You could probably say their worst loss was at Texas A&M. There are a lot of teams with worst losses (hello, Virginia). Kentucky needs to win at Georgia, then muster all their might to beat Florida and then win a few games in the SEC Tournament. If they can accomplish two of those three goals, the Cats are in the big dance.
Alabama (19-10, 11-5 SEC, 59 RPI, 68 BPI, KenPom) - The Crimson Tide are right there tied for second with Kentucky in the SEC. They are only one game behind Kentucky's record. Yet Bama is on the outside looking in. Yes, they have a neutral site win over Villanova and a win over Kentucky. But Alabama has some bad home losses to Mercer and Tulane. The Tide need to win at Ole Miss, a likely bubble buster game and defeat Georgia, plus they need to make the SEC Tournament final for any hope of making the tournament on Selection Sunday.
Missouri (21-8, 10-6 SEC, 32 RPI, 26 BPI, 70 KenPom) - The Tigers are probably on this list for the sole reason that they are tied for fourth in the SEC. But Missouri has little to worry about at the moment. They have a very good non conference resjme with neutral site wins over VCU and Illinois, along with a win over Bucknell and conference wins over Alabama, Ole Miss and Florida. Their lone bad loss is at LSU. Unless the Tigers implode by losing to Arkansas, then Tennessee and a quick exit in the SEC tournament, they are safely in the NCAA Tournament.
Ole Miss (21-8, 10-6 SEC, 58 RPI, 45 BPI, 50 KenPom) - Unlike the Tigers, the Rebels are in serious, serious trouble. A few weeks ago, they were a lock to make the NCAA Tournament. Now, they are on the outside looking in. You can't lose to both South Carolina and Mississippi State, two teams that are in the 200's in RPI. Their best wins are over Tennessee (twice), Arkansas and Missouri. Other than that, no signature non conference wins to hang their hat on. The Rebels are in the same spot as the Crimson Tide. They need to beat Alabama in the bubble buster game, then win at LSU, then win at least two games in the SEC Tournament. Anything less and it's an NIT bid.
Tennessee (17-11, 9-7 SEC, 56 RPI, 63 BPI, 63 KenPom) - Unlike the Rebels, the Volunteers have a good non conference win in defeating Wichita State. But other than home wins vs. Alabama and Kentucky, the Vols have little on their resume. The bad outweighs the good as Tennessee has lost twice to Georgia, who are below them in the standings. The Volunteers basically need to win the SEC Tournament to get into the NCAA Tournament.
Arkansas (18-11, 9-7 SEC, 75 RPI, 74 BPI, 68 KenPom) - I guess if you have to have Tennessee, you have to have Arkansas. They do have a non conference win over Oklahoma and wins over Florida, Missouri, Kentucky and Tennessee. The bad are losses at Vandy, at Texas A&M, at South Carolina and at LSU. For them to have any chance for an at large bid, they need to win at Missouri, then beat Texas A&M and then win at least two games in the SEC Tournament. Sound familiar? See the two SEC teams prior to them.
Middle Tennessee State (27-4, 19-1 Sun Belt, 24 RPI, 41 BPI, 27 KenPom) - The Blue Raiders have dominated the Sun Belt. They have a good win over Ole Miss that might come in handy if they are an at large contender on Selection Sunday. Their only bad loss is at Arkansas State. They have done everything they can, sans beat good teams on the road like Belmont, Akron (overtime) and Florida. They will be an interesting case should they not win the Sun Belt. Here's hoping they win the Sun Belt and make the question moot.
California (20-9, 12-5 PAC 12, 46 RPI, 47 BPI, KenPom) - After losing at Arizona State on February 7, the Golden Bears were 13-9, 7-5 in the PAC 12. They looked done. Now less than one month and seven straight wins later, Cal looks to be solidly in the tournament. They have swept Oregon, beat UCLA, Arizona and Colorado. Their bad losses are to Harvard at home, Washington at home and at Stanford. There are teams with a lot worse losses. Cal could sew things up with a win over Stanford plus a trip to the PAC 12 semifinals.
Colorado (19-9, 9-7 PAC 12, 29 RPI, 37 BPI, 49 KenPom) - The Buffaloes are starting to tread a little water having split their last four games. Still Colorado has a nice neutral site win over Baylor, plus wins over Air Force, Colorado State, California, Oregon and Arizona. The bad losses are road losses to Washington and Utah. The Buffs need to close out with a few wins at home vs. Oregon and Oregon State to make sure they punch their ticket to the tournament.
Arizona State (20-10, 9-8 PAC 12, 92 RPI, 67 BPI, 78 KenPom) - After defeating Cal on February 7, the Sun Devils were 18-5 and 7-3 in the PAC 12. Since then, Arizona State is 2-5. The good, a neutral site win over Arkansas, two wins over Colorado and a win over UCLA. The bad is bad; RPI is 92 (!), lost to DePaul at home, lost to Washington twice, home loss to Stanford and a road loss to Utah. Plus their final regular season game is at Arizona, a team they lost to at home by seventeen. Unless they shock the Wildcats and make it to the PAC 12 Tournament final, no at large for the Sun Devils.
Louisiana Tech (26-3, 16-0 WAC, 50 RPI, 64 BPI, 64 KenPom) - The Bulldogs have been terrific in a pretty decent WAC (Denver and New Mexico State each have nineteen wins). To be undefeated in conference this late in the season is impressive. They also have a home win over Southern Miss. Their only bad loss was at McNeese State. If they can win their last two conference games at Denver and at New Mexico State, plus make it to the WAC tournament finals, the NCAA Tournament committee will be hard pressed to turn away a thirty win team. Hope it doesn't come to that and that the Bulldogs win the WAC. We'll see.
St Mary's (26-5, 14-2 WCC, 41 RPI, 35 BPI, 19 KenPom) - Another season where the Gaels have done almost everything but beat Gonzaga. There were a couple of slip ups in non conference with losses to Pacific and Georgia Tech in the Anaheim Classic. And yes, the Zags beat them twice in conference. But St Mary's does have an impressive win over Creighton. If I were Randy Bennett, I better hope my team makes the WCC Tournament final. Anything less could make things interesting.
Thursday, December 13, 2012
Four on the Floor for the Week of December 10
It’s time for our weekly segment – Four on the Floor. This is where we look at four teams and in the case of this week, why they are all successful. One team, VCU, is now well known to most college basketball fans. The other three teams aren't so well known.
VCU
Shaka Smart’s Rams are in the thick of things again in college basketball this season. Despite being only 6-3, the Rams have looked particularly impressive in wins over Memphis and Belmont and close losses to Duke, Missouri and Wichita State (those three teams are a combined 26-1). Their average margin of victory in their six wins is an astounding twenty two points per game.
Last season’s success was based mostly on their ability to turn over the ball on their opponents as VCU was first in turnover percentage defense and steal percentage. They were also twenty seventh in the country in turnover percentage offense, so when they stole the ball, they held onto it well. This season the Rams are tenth in turnover percentage defense and fourth in the country in steal percentage defense. Briante Weber averages over three steals per game for VCU.
This season, the Rams are statistically much better overall than the 2011-12 team that made the third round of the NCAA Tournament and nearly made the Sweet Sixteen. Last season the team was statistically in the lower third in three point percentage offense, two point percentage offense and free throw percentage. This season, VCU is in the top one hundred in three point percentage offense and two point percentage offense, as well as thirty sixth in offensive rebound percentage.
The concern going into this season was who was going to fill Bradford Burgess’ scoring shoes. Well, three players in particular, Treveon Graham, Juvonte Reddic and Rob Brandenberg have stepped up and increased their scoring averages from last season. Graham averages fifteen points and five rebounds per game while shooting fifty percent from the field. Reddic averages over fourteen points per game, eight rebounds, nearly two steals and shoots fifty nine percent from the field.
The Rams are averaging seven more points per game this season compared to last season. VCU has five straight non conference home games before A-10 play. Three games won’t be easy as Alabama, Western Kentucky and Lehigh combined are 22-6. But considering they have played the Shockers, Blue Devils and two sets of Tigers (Missouri and Memphis), they should be prepared.
Canisius
The Golden Griffins won all of five games in the 2011-12 season. It was the last season for former coach Tom Parrotta, who was fired in March. Former Rhode Island coach Jimmy Baron was hired. He brought his son Billy with him and instant success as well. Already the Griffs are “bowl eligible”, having won more games than last season. Their only loss came at 7-2 Stony Brook. The Griffs already are 2-0 in the MAAC, which is more conference wins than they had all of last season. Both of those conference games also came on the road.
Simply put, Canisius’ success lies in their offense. They are thirty sixth in the country in scoring, averaging just under seventy eight points per game. The Griffs are in the top one hundred in just about every offensive category. They stand out in particular in effective field goal percentage, fifty fourth at 52.2 percent.
Canisius is led by their two guards Harold Washington and Baron, who combine for twenty six points, eight rebounds and eight assists per game. Washington is shooting a scorching fifty six percent from beyond the arc. And the Griffs are a deep team, as nine players average fifteen minutes or more per game.
Three of the Griffs’ next four non conference games are all tough ones on the road – at #4 Syracuse, at Temple and at #20 UNLV (they also play at Detroit late this month). However the Griffs should win their home games vs. Longwood and Alcorn State. With a seemingly down year for the MAAC, it’s quite possible that Canisius will finish with a winning record. Considering the Griffs haven’t had a winning record this decade that would be an amazing feat.
Middle Tennessee
Name the Sun Belt team with the most wins last season? Yes, it was the Blue Raiders with twenty seven wins. But they got upset in the first round of the Sun Belt Tournament and ended up in the NIT where they made the quarterfinals before losing to Minnesota. MT has picked up where they left off with a 7-2 record, which includes a home win over Mississippi.
The Blue Raiders win by making their opponents cough up the ball, cleaning up the offensive glass and hitting three pointers. Middle Tennessee is thirty eighth in turnover percentage defense, forty seventh in steal percentage, forty sixth in offensive rebound percentage and fifty fifth in three point field goal percentage offense.
The Blue Raiders only have two players who average double digits in scoring. Marcos Knight and Shawn Jones combine for twenty three points and twelve rebounds per game. What helps Middle Tennessee is that they have ten players who average thirteen minutes or more per game. Including Marcos Knight and Jones, they have eight players who average five or more points per game.
Middle Tennessee has some in state rivalry games before they continue conference play on December 29. They are at Belmont tonight and have a neutral site game vs. Vanderbilt on December 21. Pomeroy has the Blue Raiders winning twenty six games and going 18-2 in conference, similar to last season. Hopefully this time it leads to a NCAA berth for the Blue Raiders.
Eastern Kentucky
OK, name the only team in the state of Kentucky undefeated? Kentucky? Of course not. Murray State? Nope, lost to Colorado in the Charleston Classic. And it’s not Western Kentucky. It’s the Colonels of Eastern Kentucky.
So how have the Colonels won nine straight games? It’s because they force teams to turn the ball over and they score in the paint. The Colonels are second in the country in turnover percentage defense at 29.3 percent and nineteenth in the country in steal percentage defense at 14.1 percent. Eastern Kentucky is FIRST in the country in two point field goal percentage offense at 59.5 percent, eleventh in the country in effective field goal percentage at 56.4 percent and thirteenth in the country in field goal percentage at 49.5 percent. Simply put, they make you cough up the ball and then make you pay for it.
Three players on Eastern Kentucky shoot over sixty percent from the field. Glenn Cosey averages nearly eighteen points per game while shooting fifty one percent from the field, including 46.6 percent from beyond the arc. His teammate, Mike DiNunno averages fourteen points, forty eight percent from the field and shoots forty five percent from beyond the arc.
Belmont and Murray State get all the notoriety in the Ohio Valley, but Eastern Kentucky’s stats show that they are the third team to reckon with in the conference. They have an incredibly tough test at undefeated and tenth ranked Illinois on Sunday as well as a tough game at West Virginia at the end of the month. But you have to root for a team with an ABA team name (Colonels).
VCU
Shaka Smart’s Rams are in the thick of things again in college basketball this season. Despite being only 6-3, the Rams have looked particularly impressive in wins over Memphis and Belmont and close losses to Duke, Missouri and Wichita State (those three teams are a combined 26-1). Their average margin of victory in their six wins is an astounding twenty two points per game.
Last season’s success was based mostly on their ability to turn over the ball on their opponents as VCU was first in turnover percentage defense and steal percentage. They were also twenty seventh in the country in turnover percentage offense, so when they stole the ball, they held onto it well. This season the Rams are tenth in turnover percentage defense and fourth in the country in steal percentage defense. Briante Weber averages over three steals per game for VCU.
This season, the Rams are statistically much better overall than the 2011-12 team that made the third round of the NCAA Tournament and nearly made the Sweet Sixteen. Last season the team was statistically in the lower third in three point percentage offense, two point percentage offense and free throw percentage. This season, VCU is in the top one hundred in three point percentage offense and two point percentage offense, as well as thirty sixth in offensive rebound percentage.
The concern going into this season was who was going to fill Bradford Burgess’ scoring shoes. Well, three players in particular, Treveon Graham, Juvonte Reddic and Rob Brandenberg have stepped up and increased their scoring averages from last season. Graham averages fifteen points and five rebounds per game while shooting fifty percent from the field. Reddic averages over fourteen points per game, eight rebounds, nearly two steals and shoots fifty nine percent from the field.
The Rams are averaging seven more points per game this season compared to last season. VCU has five straight non conference home games before A-10 play. Three games won’t be easy as Alabama, Western Kentucky and Lehigh combined are 22-6. But considering they have played the Shockers, Blue Devils and two sets of Tigers (Missouri and Memphis), they should be prepared.
Canisius
The Golden Griffins won all of five games in the 2011-12 season. It was the last season for former coach Tom Parrotta, who was fired in March. Former Rhode Island coach Jimmy Baron was hired. He brought his son Billy with him and instant success as well. Already the Griffs are “bowl eligible”, having won more games than last season. Their only loss came at 7-2 Stony Brook. The Griffs already are 2-0 in the MAAC, which is more conference wins than they had all of last season. Both of those conference games also came on the road.
Simply put, Canisius’ success lies in their offense. They are thirty sixth in the country in scoring, averaging just under seventy eight points per game. The Griffs are in the top one hundred in just about every offensive category. They stand out in particular in effective field goal percentage, fifty fourth at 52.2 percent.
Canisius is led by their two guards Harold Washington and Baron, who combine for twenty six points, eight rebounds and eight assists per game. Washington is shooting a scorching fifty six percent from beyond the arc. And the Griffs are a deep team, as nine players average fifteen minutes or more per game.
Three of the Griffs’ next four non conference games are all tough ones on the road – at #4 Syracuse, at Temple and at #20 UNLV (they also play at Detroit late this month). However the Griffs should win their home games vs. Longwood and Alcorn State. With a seemingly down year for the MAAC, it’s quite possible that Canisius will finish with a winning record. Considering the Griffs haven’t had a winning record this decade that would be an amazing feat.
Middle Tennessee
Name the Sun Belt team with the most wins last season? Yes, it was the Blue Raiders with twenty seven wins. But they got upset in the first round of the Sun Belt Tournament and ended up in the NIT where they made the quarterfinals before losing to Minnesota. MT has picked up where they left off with a 7-2 record, which includes a home win over Mississippi.
The Blue Raiders win by making their opponents cough up the ball, cleaning up the offensive glass and hitting three pointers. Middle Tennessee is thirty eighth in turnover percentage defense, forty seventh in steal percentage, forty sixth in offensive rebound percentage and fifty fifth in three point field goal percentage offense.
The Blue Raiders only have two players who average double digits in scoring. Marcos Knight and Shawn Jones combine for twenty three points and twelve rebounds per game. What helps Middle Tennessee is that they have ten players who average thirteen minutes or more per game. Including Marcos Knight and Jones, they have eight players who average five or more points per game.
Middle Tennessee has some in state rivalry games before they continue conference play on December 29. They are at Belmont tonight and have a neutral site game vs. Vanderbilt on December 21. Pomeroy has the Blue Raiders winning twenty six games and going 18-2 in conference, similar to last season. Hopefully this time it leads to a NCAA berth for the Blue Raiders.
Eastern Kentucky
OK, name the only team in the state of Kentucky undefeated? Kentucky? Of course not. Murray State? Nope, lost to Colorado in the Charleston Classic. And it’s not Western Kentucky. It’s the Colonels of Eastern Kentucky.
So how have the Colonels won nine straight games? It’s because they force teams to turn the ball over and they score in the paint. The Colonels are second in the country in turnover percentage defense at 29.3 percent and nineteenth in the country in steal percentage defense at 14.1 percent. Eastern Kentucky is FIRST in the country in two point field goal percentage offense at 59.5 percent, eleventh in the country in effective field goal percentage at 56.4 percent and thirteenth in the country in field goal percentage at 49.5 percent. Simply put, they make you cough up the ball and then make you pay for it.
Three players on Eastern Kentucky shoot over sixty percent from the field. Glenn Cosey averages nearly eighteen points per game while shooting fifty one percent from the field, including 46.6 percent from beyond the arc. His teammate, Mike DiNunno averages fourteen points, forty eight percent from the field and shoots forty five percent from beyond the arc.
Belmont and Murray State get all the notoriety in the Ohio Valley, but Eastern Kentucky’s stats show that they are the third team to reckon with in the conference. They have an incredibly tough test at undefeated and tenth ranked Illinois on Sunday as well as a tough game at West Virginia at the end of the month. But you have to root for a team with an ABA team name (Colonels).
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)