The Madness Hasn't Been Kind to the Regular Season Champ

Coastal Carolina Winning 2014 Big South Championship

One thing has become permanently clear in these two weeks coming up to Selection Sunday this season.  If you're the regular season conference champion, chances are you haven't likely fared too well in your conference tournament.    With Louisiana Tech losing to Tulsa last night in the Conference USA championship, that means now twelve mid major level conference regular season champions will have now have an automatic NIT bid because they lost in their conference tournament; Louisiana Tech, Florida Gulf Coast, Boston University, Vermont, Belmont, Robert Morris, UC Irvine, Iona, Green Bay, Utah Valley, High Point and Davidson.  If Georgia State loses in the Sun Belt Conference championship today, it will make it an even Baker's Dozen.

Robert-Morris-LIU 2011 NEC Championship

But it's not been just the mid major conference tournaments where the number #1 seed has gone down.  Villanova and St Louis, both #1 seeds, went down in the quarterfinals in the Big East and A-10 tournaments respectively.  Kansas lost in the semis to Iowa State in the Big 12.  Cincinnati lost in the AAC semifinals to UConn.   Yesterday, San Diego State lost to New Mexico in the Mountain West finals.  Arizona jeopardized a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament by losing to UCLA in the Pac12 finals.

Now for all those regular season championship non mid major level teams that I mentioned in the previous paragraph, the conference tournament didn't mean too much to them, since they were all guaranteed a bid to the NCAA Tournament.  Still, it likely affected several team's seedings in the NCAA Tournament, especially St Louis.

2012 CAA Tournament - George Mason v. VCU

As of this morning, only eight regular season championship teams won their conference tournament and got the automatic NCAA bid; Wichita State (Missouri Valley), Gonzaga (WCC), NC Central (MEAC), Weber State (Big Sky), Southern (SWAC), North Dakota State (Summit), Delaware (CAA) and Western Michigan (MAC).  A ninth team that won the regular season championship, Harvard in the Ivy League, got an automatic bid since the Ivy doesn't have a post conference tournament.

So why has it been so difficult for regular season champions across the board to win their postseason conference tournaments?   Well, there are several reasons.

1. Complacency on the Non Mid Major Level - Let's be honest, it's hard for some Power Conference teams that have a guaranteed spot in the NCAA Tournament to maintain their focus and level of play.   It's also difficult for those teams when playing similarly talented teams on that level.  Case in point, Villanova and St Louis.   Both teams played decent opponents in the quarterfinal rounds of their tournament;Seton Hall and St. Bonaventure. Both the Pirates and the Bonnies needed to run the table to win, so they went all out and caught the Wildcats and Billikens napping.  It happens.
2. Quality of Opponent - On the power conference level, you have ranked teams playing each other in the semifinals, even sometimes in the quarterfinals in the conference tournament.  So there certainly is very little difference between Kansas and Iowa State, Cincinnati and UConn, San Diego State and New Mexico, and Arizona and UCLA.   Cincinnati only received the #1 seed, because they won a coin flip vs. Louisville, who ended up winning the AAC.
   
   This has also been true for some of the smaller conference tournaments.  Florida Gulf Coast, the #1 seed, lost the Atlantic Sun championship game on its home court to Mercer, the #2 seed.   The Bears were returning the favor from a year ago when the Eagles won on Mercer's home court in the A-Sun championship.  Boston U, the #1 seed, lost the Patriot Conference Championship on their home court to the #2 seed, American.  Finally, Iona lost to the #2 seed Manhattan in the MAAC Conference Tournament final, a team they split with during the regular season.
3. "Neutral Site" Tournaments - This is where many of the mid major regular season champions got tripped up.  There are a good number of mid major level tournaments that are hosted on "neutral" sites for likely monetary reasons.   In one case in particular, the America East, the first two rounds conference tournament has been held on one of the conference member sites (the championship has been held on the higher seed's home court).  In this season and last season, it was hosted by Albany.  And in the last two seasons, Albany has knocked off the #1 seed in the semifinals (2013 - Stony Brook, 2014 - Vermont).  The Great Danes have used this momentum in both seasons to win the conference tournament, knocking off Vermont and Stony Brook on those school's respective home courts.
   
   The Big South also has a "neutral site" conference tournament that's hosted by one of its schools, Coastal Carolina, with a little help from the Myrtle Beach Chamber of Commerce.  High Point lost on a buzzer beater in the quarterfinals to Winthrop, which opened the door for the host Chanticleers to win the Big South Tournament.
   
   Once conference that used to be held in Albany and was moved to a true neutral site, due to concerns about Siena's home court advantage, is the MAAC.  The MAAC Tournament has been held in Springfield, "MAAChusetts" the last couple of seasons, which is where Iona lost to Manhattan in the championship this year.  However, attendance has been so bad in Springfield, the MAAC is considering other sites, including bring the tournament back to Albany.
   
   Other conference tournaments also use true neutral sites.  Asheville hosted the Southern Conference Tournament, where Davidson got knocked off by Western Carolina in the semifinals.  The WAC hosted their tournament at the Orleans Arena in Las Vegas, which is where Utah Valley lost to Idaho in the conference semifinals.   Finally the Big West was held in Anaheim, California, where Cal Poly used the momentum from knocking off #1 seed UC Irvine to beat CS Northridge in the Big West Championship.
   
   Many people, including myself, don't think neutral site championships are fair on the mid major level. It's one thing where Power Six conferences or next level conferences like the Mountain West and A-10 can hold neutral site tournaments based on crowd attendance (it even works with the Missouri Valley to a lesser extent).  But at the Southern, WAC or Big West levels, a neutral site doesn't really draw a large crowd to justify a neutral site.  And in the case of the skewered America East host school "neutral site" tournament, it certainly doesn't justify that.
   
   To me and others, it doesn't reward all the work that regular season championship teams have done to finish in first and it also often doesn't put the best conference team in the tournament.   That's why I think the Ivy League has no post season tournament.  The regular season champion that was consistently best all season earns the automatic bid.
   
   It's my opinion that mid major conferences either go to an Atlantic Sun/NEC based tournament, where the higher seeds host the conference games throughout the various levels of the tournament or move to a Horizon League Tournament, where the #1 seed hosts the first two rounds of the tournament and the championship is held on the highest remaining seed's court.  Thus teams will be rewarding for a regular season accomplishment.  But...
    
4. Even With Home Court Advantage, Some Schools Can't Stand Prosperity - Even with the home court advantage, four regular season champions fell by the wayside in their conference tournament.  Green Bay, the Horizon League Regular Season Champion, again lost to Milwaukee on its home court in the conference semifinals.  The Phoenix lost at home to the Panthers earlier in the season.   As noted, Florida Gulf Coast lost at home to Mercer in the A-Sun finals.  Finally, Robert Morris lost at home in the NEC finals to Mount St Mary's.

2011 CAA Tournament - VCU v. George Mason

It's been the craziest conference tournament season I can ever remember.  And as a result, a lot of NIT hopefuls will be now scrambling for bids to the CIT and CBI, Defiantly Dutch's favorite tournament.  This season has shown, now more than ever, with rare exceptions, the regular season doesn't mean a thing.

I love conference tournaments, especially considering all the years I have been to the CAA Tournament, let alone NEC and Big South championship games.  Some of my favorite memories have come from sitting in a usually cold Richmond Coliseum, especially the 2011 and 2012 #CAAHoops semifinals.  There's nothing better than a sold out, raucous crowd during a conference tournament.  I will always remember fondly sitting in the Blackbirds' student section during LIU's overtime win over Robert Morris in the 2011 NEC Tournament final.

But sometimes, on the fairness level of conference tournaments and regular season champions, I think the Ivy League knows best.

Miscellaneous Thoughts on Iona/Manhattan, Siena, Wichita State, Duquesne and Fordham

If you're a college basketball fan and you didn't watch Iona/Manhattan on ESPN2 last night, you missed an absolutely terrific game between two long time MAAC rivals.  The Jaspers won in overtime 80-77.  It was exciting, action packed, end to end, three point drilling (on Iona's side), small gym, capacity, loud crowd fun.  You could hear the crowd loud and clear on your TV.

Having been at Draddy for Iona vs. Manhattan previously for a SRO crowd between these two rivals, I can tell you how intense the Gaels-Jaspers rivalry is from a spectator's standpoint. And if you don't think this is a hot ticket, two years ago, tickets for the Iona- Manhattan game were going for $100, which is usually unheard of in NYC mid major basketball.  Jaden Daly of Daly Dose of Hoops was there last night and here's his writeup.

It's quite possible that Iona and Manhattan will face each other again in the MAAC Tournament.  Despite the loss, Iona has clinched the MAAC regular season championship and the #1 seed for the MAAC Tournament.   Manhattan is tied for second with both Quinnipiac and Canisius.  The Jaspers host the Golden Griffiths on Sunday for at least third place. 

Oh, one last thing.  If Iona wins at home over Rider on Sunday, it will be the fourth time in the four seasons Tim Cluess has coached in New Rochelle that the Gaels have won twenty games.  Four years ago, I gave a New York metro college advice on who to take as their head coach.  Iona took the advice instead and two NCAA Tournament later, with a possible third on the horizon, the Gaels must be quite happy with the decision.

Speaking of MAAC coaches, how about the job Jimmy Patsos is doing with Siena.  The Saints are now over .500 in the MAAC at 10-9 and with a win over Monmouth, will be the fifth seed in the MAAC Tournament.   Siena has already won six more games than all of last season and six more games in conference from last season as well.  Not surprising, given Patsos' history of success with Loyola Maryland.

One last MAAC note.  With Cluess, Steve Masiello, Patsos and Jimmy Baron, the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference has become a premier coaching conference.  MAACTION!

Wichita State has been getting a lot of flack lately on whether they are a #1 seed for the NCAA Tournament .  Several basketball "pundits" have questioned their non conference schedule (Yes, Jeff Goodman of ESPN, I am talking about you in particular).   Mark Adams, ESPN analyst, put this into excellent perspective on Twitter by stating that the eight power conference teams ranked in the top ten played eighty six percent of their non-conference games at either neutral site or home.   As I pointed out to Mark in a reply, I noted Wichita State only played seven of its twelve non-conference games at home (two were neutral site).  Saint Louis, the other non power conference team in the top ten played only six of its eleven games at home (two were also neutral site).

Furthermore, compare Wichita State's team to the last Missouri Valley team that went so far into the season undefeated, the 1978-79 Indiana State team.  That team of course was led by Larry Bird and went to the NCAA Championship game undefeated vs. Michigan State before losing to Magic Johnson and the Spartans.  

That 78-79 Sycamores team only played one NCAA Tournament team during the regular season, New Mexico State, which Indiana State beat twice in that season in conference.  In fact, the Sycamores had to have a 50 foot shot by Bob Heaton to force overtime on the road vs. the Aggies.  New Mexico State ended up getting an at large bid, losing to Weber State in a first round game.  At that time, only forty teams made the NCAA Tournament.  

Despite their lack of a signature non-conference win, Indiana State received a #1 seed.   Perhaps having Bird helped their chances of getting a #1 seed.  Still, Indiana State justified their seeding by making the NCAA Championship game.

This season, Wichita State has played two definite NCAA Tournament teams in their non conference; BYU and currently #10 Saint Louis.  The neutral site win over the Cougars was the championship game of the CBE classic and the win over SLU came on the Billikens home court.  Until their loss at home to Duquesne this week, Saint Louis had been undefeated in Atlantic-10 play, which is quite impressive considering there is a very good chance that there will be five A-10 teams in the NCAA Tournament (SLU, VCU, UMass, George Washington and St Joseph's).

Wichita State has also won over bubble team Tennessee, along with wins over Davidson, the Southern Conference regular season champion, who knocked off the current #2 team in the SEC, Georgia and NC Central, who won at North Carolina State and who at 22-5 and 13-1 in the MEAC, is the likely MEAC regular season champion (the Eagles have a two game lead over Hampton).  Throw in the fact that with basically the same team from last year's Final Four team, if the Shockers can make it through the rest of the Valley regular season and the MVC Tournament undefeated, they should definitely be a #1 seed and have serious consideration as the #1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament.

Gregg Marshall is my coach of the year (and Jaden Daly, I knew about Marshall for years even before his Winthrop team knocked off Notre Dame).

On Thursday night, I watched on TV two bottom A-10 teams play, Fordham and Duquesne.  Both teams played good first halves against their respective opponents, VCU and St Louis, as I noted, two definite NCAA Tournament teams.    In their respective second halves, only one team maintained their composure and heart.  The road team Dukes withstood the Billikens and gave St Louis their first loss in A-10 play.

Duquesne at one time was tied with Fordham in the A-10 standings.  Yet, Jim Ferry's 12-15 team has not given up and won two of its last four games.   Of their four conference wins, three of those are on the road, including a win over the Rams.  The Dukes have lost fifteen games on the season, nine of those fifteen losses have been by nine points or less, including six A-10 conference games.  Duquesne's scoring margin on the season is - 0.3.  You can certainly say the Dukes have been competitive for the most part this season.

I'm not surprised by Ferry's Dukes playing so hard.  His successful LIU teams were high scoring, yet very gutty.  I was there when the Blackbirds won over Wagner at a hostile, sold out Spiro Center two years ago in what was quite possibly, given the game was on ESPNU on a Saturday night, the biggest regular season game in the history of the NEC (see picture of the game on the left).

Ferry's LIU teams made the NCAA Tournament two years in a row before he took the Duquesne job. Already the Dukes have a four win improvement from last season.   Given his ability to recruit nationally (several of his LIU players came from Texas), Duquesne is in good hands.

Meanwhile, VCU went on an early second half run and Fordham looked like they got run over by a truck.  They looked clueless on defense, showed no fundamentals on boxing out as VCU got offensive rebound after offensive rebound (in fact VCU had twenty four offensive rebounds) and basically showed no heart the last twenty minutes of the game.  VCU scored FIFTY ONE second half points beating Fordham 85-66.   One team looked Ram Tough and another looked Rammed.

Then to top it, Fordham Coach Tom Pecora just torched his team's effort after the loss, as per another great Jaden Daly writeup.   Yet not anywhere in the post game press conference notes does Pecora accept any blame for his team's failures that night.  He even notes that "Teams that win find ways to win, teams that lose, they know how to lose".

Well who's responsibility is for that demeanor and play?  It's the coach. 

I have already written about Fordham's struggles this season, in fact, it's been my most read article of the season, and taken Pecora to task.  So yes, it's like beating a dead horse.  But after his VCU post game press conference comments, the dead horse needs to beaten some more.

Fordham has lost five straight games, all by double digit margins.  In their last nine A-10 conference losses on the season , the Rams have lost each game by double digits and by an average margin of NINETEEN POINTS.  In fact, in Fordham's seventeen losses on the season, thirteen have now come by double digit margins.    

Think about that.  In only four of their seventeen losses was Fordham even close to winning.  

And even the defensive intensity that Pecora's Hofstra teams used to have is now gone.  He now goes with a four guard lineup, yet laments that "You can't let them beat you up on the offensive glass".  The Rams are DEAD LAST in the A-10 in scoring defense, allowing seventy nine points per game.  They are also dead last in field goal percentage defense, allowing teams to shoot forty six percent from the field.  The Rams also allow teams to score fifty two percent of their two point field goal attempts.

I think this last quote about Pecora when there is a question about his team's effort sums it up best  

"Oh, without a doubt, and I think that's been an issue for us throughout the season. There's been two major issues in my mind: One is getting that kind of team effort for 40 minutes consistently..." 

That comes down to one person and one person only.  The coach.

I Have Seen the Light - End the BracketBusters

So, if you're a mid major college basketball fan, unless you have been hiding under a rock, you should know by now the BracketBuster Pairings.

St Mary's vs. Murray State
Long Beach State vs. Creighton
Nevada vs. Iona
Wichita State vs. Davidson
Drexel vs. Cleveland State
Akron vs. Oral Roberts
Valparaiso vs. Loyola Marymount
Northern Iowa vs. VCU
Buffalo vs. South Dakota State
Drake vs. New Mexico State
ODU vs. Missouri State
UNC Asheville vs. Weber State

After seeing the pairings, I am considering hiding under a rock.  And here's why (you will see I added three non televised BracketBuster teams for comparison.  Also you can click on the image for a full sized image);

As far as the televised game team selections, I had most of the teams from my predictions yesterday; ten of the thirteen home teams and eleven of the thirteen road teams.  I completely missed out on New Mexico State, since they deserved a spot (I did say yesterday though that I had an open home team).  What I didn't figure on was Missouri State and Loyola Marymount getting televised home games.

As for road teams, I had Drake in the discussion, so I am OK with that. As I noted in my article yesterday, the road teams were much weaker than the home teams and the statistics above prove that.  You have three road teams with nine losses, one with eight losses and another three teams with seven losses.  Compare that with the home teams where only three teams had seven losses or more.

You can see the wonderful, brilliant folks (once again, sarcasm by the author) selected their teams in most part by RPI.  It's the only explanation for Missouri State, only one of two home teams lower than second place in conference and the only home team with ten losses.  I could understand that if they had a record like ODU in conference, but they are only 6-5 in conference with an equal number of non conference losses.

As for the explanation of Loyola Marymount, I simply have none. Their numbers are worse across the board compared with both George Mason and Loyola Maryland.  To not have the first place CAA team in a televised BracketBuster game is criminal. Equally as criminal is not having Loyola Maryland, tied for first place in the MAAC, in a televised game.  Missouri State and Loyola Marymount stick out like sore thumbs in the home team comparisons and should not have got televised home games.

But the most serious transgression is giving Northern Iowa a televised game.  They are 4-7 in conference. Four and freakin seven and tied for seventh in the Missouri Valley!  Yes, they have good RPI and KenPom numbers.  But to quote Dennis Green, when you are 4-7 in conference, "They are what we thought they were". Meanwhile that leaves Stony Brook the only other BracketBuster eligible first place team besides George Mason without a televised game.  ESPN has just told the mid major basketball world what it thinks of the America East.

The pairings are not the greatest either. Based on region and RPI, I would have given St Mary's to Creighton, Wichita State to Murray State, Long Beach State to Iona and Nevada to Oral Roberts.   Yes, I know Davidson won at Kansas, but if you are going to base things on RPI, then Wichita State deserved the second best game.  If you are going to give Iona a west coast team, Long Beach State is somewhat better than Nevada based on numbers.

But again to not have the first place teams in the CAA or America East have televised games and instead have three teams that have at least nine losses and are not at least tied for second place in their conference have televised games; Northern Iowa, Missouri State and Loyola Marymount is criminal.   And if you are not going to reward a team like Stony Brook that's 7-1 in conference and in first place, why include the America East at all in the Bracketbusters?

Basically what ESPN said with yesterday's pairings is that a) the third place team in the Missouri Valley, a team with equal number of losses in conference and non conference is better than the first place team in the CAA that has only one loss in conference and half the losses overall, b) the seventh best team in the Missouri Valley that is 4-7 in conference is more rewarding of a televised game then the one loss first place team in the America East and c) Loyola Marymount is the best Loyola named school in the BracketBusters despite not being in first place and having four more losses than their Maryland counterpart.

If I was a George Mason, Stony Brook or Loyola Maryland fan this morning, I would be quite upset.

I have long been the defender of the BracketBusters.  But after yesterday's pairings, the decisions were as bad as some past NCAA Selection Committees.  For all the hassle with the home and road requirements, at least if you had selected teams based on merit and pairings that made sense, I could see it being worth the trouble.  But you didn't have that yesterday. I see only three games that can really help teams as far as at large bids; St Mary's vs. Murray State; Long Beach State vs. Creighton and believe it or not, Drexel vs. Cleveland State (a road win could definitely help the Dragons' numbers).  Otherwise, ESPN didn't do anybody any favors.

I have seen the light.  It's time to end the BracketBusters.

Conference Realignment is All About the Money

I guess it was only a matter of time before we had serious conference realignment.  In the past several days, the dominoes have truly started to fall.  Texas A&M agrees to join the SEC.  Then Pittsburgh and Syracuse join the ACC, while UConn and Rutgers look to join them as well.  Meanwhile, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas Tech and Oklahoma State are looking to join the PAC-12.  Now comes news that what's probably left of the Big 12 is looking to merge with the Big East.

It's survival of the fittest and the loser in all this is the sports fan.  Basketball rivalries like Syracuse vs. St John's, Kansas vs. Oklahoma (anyone remember the 1988 NCAA Championship game?) and football rivalries like Pitt vs. West Virginia (depending on where they end up) could become a thing of the past.  Already, you have seen the demise of Oklahoma vs. Nebraska in football when the Cornhuskers left for the Big Ten.

And forget conferences based on geography.  Remember when the Big East was comprised of schools in the East and Atlantic Coast conference schools that actually resided near the Atlantic Ocean?  Syracuse and Pittsburgh are about as Atlantic as TCU is East or Utah and Colorado are Pacific (kudos to Brendan Loy for that last reference). 

And what's the root cause?  What else, money! Greed.  TV contracts.  In this case, football TV contracts.  That's why you are hearing that if the Big 12 and the Big East merge, it would be into the Big 12, due to the contract with Fox and ESPN/ABC.   

So college football seems to be the root of all this super conference evil.  It's why Utah and Colorado were grabbed up by the PAC 12 and soon some of their fellow Big 12 brethren.  And the Mountain West trying to be the new big kid on the block swooped up Boise State and Nevada.  I assure you, the Broncos and Wolfpack were not taken for their hoops teams.

Eventually, there will be the PAC 16, the SEC, the Big Ten (how many teams does it take before you change the name from the Big Ten?), the Big 12/Big East combo and the not so now Atlantic Coast Conference running the BCS landscape. 

But what does this mean for college basketball?   Well, the non football playing Big East members probably will decide to keep their own conference.  Whether it's still named the Big East is a huge question.  Notre Dame is obviously an independent in football.  What they decide to do as far as basketball is anyone's guess.  But for St John's, Villanova, Marquette, Providence, Georgetown, and Seton Hall, they will probably band up and try to do their own version of a super conference and pluck teams from the Atlantic 10 and maybe Conference USA.   

You could certainly see Xavier, Richmond, Temple and St Joe's in the sights of the Big East's remnants.  Of course, that would then leave a weakened A-10 trying to fight for survival.  Some, like Defiantly Dutch, say that would mean that several of the CAA's northeast teams would then join the Atlantic 10.  I  happen to agree somewhat with the Dutchman.   Since the CAA has positioned itself quite well now as a supreme football subdivision conference, the exodus will be small, limited to Drexel, Northeastern and Hofstra.  It has already killed A-10 football when most of the A-10 went to the CAA en mass after 2006.  Delaware will not leave, due to being an elite FCS program in the CAA.  Towson is also trying to develop its football team as well.   I am not sure they are willing to be a part of a A-10 conference that doesn't have football.

But here's where I differ with Dutch.   With the A-10 now only a basketball driven league and potentially weakened by a mass withdrawal to a reconfigured Big East, I think the CAA might swallow a good portion of the rest of the A-10, similar to the potential Big 12 acquisition of the Big East football teams.  You could see the CAA saying to Rhode Island and UMass "You're already here in the CAA in football.  Why not join us for the rest of your sports too?"    

Then you would see the CAA become a mid major super conference, with two divisions, similar to the MAC.   Yes, there is the likely scenario that the A-10 could damage the CAA and take the teams that don't have football, Hofstra, Drexel and Northeastern. But only three of the northeast teams would really go.  So if you lose Hofstra, Drexel and Northeastern, but gain UMass, Rhode Island and say a third school like Appalachian State, some would say that makes the CAA stronger, not weaker.

My guess is that in the end, you will have both a stronger CAA and a weaker A-10, albeit.  Thus, the end result is that the CAA and the A-10 will be on a comparable level (where currently the A-10 is a level above).  

And of course, this will trickle down to the other mid major conferences as well.  What will the Horizon and the Valley do to keep their teams or strengthen their conferences?   Will St Louis finally decide that the Atlantic 10 doesn't fit and head off to the Missouri Valley, like it should?  Does that mean the Valley will try to find the Bilikens a partner, say Butler?  Will the WAC even survive? 

This is all conjecture right now.   The next few months promise even more upheaval and who ends up where is still anyone's guess.  But when the smoke finally clears, one thing will be apparent.  The college landscape is going to look a whole lot different than it did a year ago.