A New Year Ends An Old Streak (Recap of Northeastern vs George Mason)

Every once in a while, there’s a match up on the schedule that you circle when it first comes out, and feel just isn’t going to end well, for some reason. The CAA opener between George Mason and Northeastern this past Thursday was one of those games.

I knew that Northeastern expected to get their senior leader Jonathan Lee back from a foot injury a week or two in advance of the game. And I knew that there would be a small crowd on a weeknight in January, with the students home for winter break. Likewise, I’ve watched all season as Mason failed to defend the three point line, a place that Lee and Northeastern’s leading scorer during Lee’s absence, Joel Smith, both excel. Even worse, I realized that the Huskies were the last CAA team to come to Fairfax and win, in the final home game of the 2010 season, before Mason completed back-to-back perfect 9-0 home CAA performances. Would Northeastern be the bookend to that streak?

The game started a little slowly, with the Patriots trailing 4-0 at the 17:43 mark before redshirt junior Johnny Williams stuck back an Anali Okoloji miss for the home team’s first field goal. Quincy Ford immediately responded with a three-pointer to make it 7-2 Huskies. From there, Sherrod Wright went on a personal 9-2 run over the next two minutes to make it 11-9 in favor of George Mason -- aided by 3 Northeastern turnovers.

A beautiful pass from sophomore point guard Corey Edwards led to a Marko Gujanicic uncontested layup. Then, Jonathan Arledge turned an offensive rebound into another basket, stretching the lead to 15-9 before a Reggie Spencer layup broke the run.

The next four minutes saw more of a defensive struggle, as steals, turnovers, fouls, and missed shots by both teams slowed the pace up, with the score 20-16 Patriots at the under-8 media timeout. Out of the timeout, the Huskies scored 4 quick points to tie the game, but then Edwards found reserve guard Vertrail Vaughns all alone in the corner, and Vaughns knifed through the defense for a contested reverse layup. The shot seemed to give the slumping Vaughns some much-needed confidence, and he connected from long distance on the next possession,

But every time Mason got the lead, Northeastern had an answer. A pair of Ford free throws and a three-pointer by Jonathan Lee (20 points) from Ford tied the game yet again, with 4:58 to go in the half. From there, the Huskies offense experienced a drought that saw them score only three free throws and then one layup with 2 seconds to go, but with Edwards on the bench with two fouls, the Patriots offense slowed. Mason was only able to stretch the lead to 37-30 at the half.

Several things stood out to me in the first half, as I looked for signs of game-by-game improvement from George Mason in what has been a frustrating season. The biggest positive was the performance of Mason’s forwards, especially Jonathan Arledge and Erik Copes. Both have had their struggled catching and holding onto loose balls, whether in the post, at the rim, or on the floor, and yet they showed very good hands Thursday, as Arledge was good for 9 rebounds and 2 steals, and Copes for 9 rebounds and 3 blocks.

The second half began ominously, as Northeastern sank their first three shots, while Johnny Williams committed his third foul just 31 seconds into the half. A wide open three ball by Edwards off a beautiful kickout from Copes temporarily maintained some separation for the Patriots, 42-37, but the Huskies had returned from the locker room with increased intensity, while the Patriots seemed to have lost theirs. Arledge missed a dunk, which led to a Lee three-pointer in transition, and then David Walker tied it with a dunk at 16:14.

Out of the first media timeout, the Patriots showed better passing and better defense, forcing two Northeastern turnovers and stretching the lead to 50-44, with Wright doing the lion’s share.

Northeastern called a timeout with a little over 13 minutes remaining, and the game began to shift. Allen, spelling Edwards at the point, turned it over three times, and Walker assisted on three straight baskets as the Huskies tied the game up once more, at 52-all with 9:57 to play.

It seemed by now that Northeastern had found a strategy to break down the George Mason defense, and the pattern would repeat itself many more times: Drive toward the basket, then pass out to the perimeter, where at least one jump-shooter would be wide open as the Patriots defense collapsed inward, then never reset.

As the second half progressed, it seemed that the visitors from Boston couldn’t miss, but for a while, the home team hung right with them. Vaughns (twice) and Edwards traded three pointers with Zach Stahl (twice) and Demetrios Pollard, while Wright chipped in two for Mason and Stahl converted two free throws and a two.

The lead changed hands several times, until Northeastern went ahead for good, 65-63, on Stahl’s three ball off a kick-out from Quincy Ford (18 points) with 4:56 to play. Mason was helpless to stop the barrage, despite two Paul Hewitt timeouts, as the visitors suddenly went ahead 73-63. Northeastern would finish the game shooting 64% in the second half, including 6-of-9 on three point attempts.

Suddenly confronted with a ten-point hole, the Patriots seemed to get the message, and picked up their intensity, as they took 11 field goal attempts in the final 3 minutes, but they were simply out of time and Mason was forced to start giving fouls. After an Allen layup, they didn’t score another point until Wright’s pair of free throws (19 points) with 49 seconds to play broke the ice. The 6’9” Arledge made it 78-72 on his second three three-pointer of the season with 23 seconds remaining, but the Patriots could get no closer.

The Huskies (6-7, 1-0) made their last six free throws, winning 84-74, and putting up a very impressive 54 points in the second half against a Patriots squad that had come in holding opponents to a CAA low 64 points per game. After only losing one home game in the previous two-plus seasons, Mason (7-6, 0-1) has now lost back-to-back games at the Patriot Center.

All the more frustrating for me personally was that I saw some very good signs from individual players, before the game got out of hand. Corey Edwards has continued to develop as Mason’s starting point guard, finishing with 7 assists and 0 turnovers. The sophomore is now averaging 9 points, 3.5 assists, 1.5 steals, and only 1.8 turnovers in roughly 24 minutes a game over his last 4 games. Jonathan Arledge has struggled in the past with how to use his very long arms to play good defense without getting caught reaching in/around/over his man, but he showed improving skills around and above the rim on offensive and defense (evidenced by his 9 rebounds and 9 rebounds). Redshirt junior Vertrail Vaughns, who offered instant offense off the bench as a freshman (over 49% on treys) and averaged 8.8 points a season ago, finally reminded Mason fans what he can do, breaking out of a season-long slump with 13 points on 5-11 shooting.

As for Northeastern, I was most impressed by 6’5” freshman Zach Stahl, who finished 5 out of 8 from the field, including 2-for-2 on three pointers and 3-for-3 at the line, for a career high 15 points in 20 minutes of play. If Stahl can become a consistent fourth option to complement Ford, Lee, and Smith, the Huskies are going to be a very dangerous team in a weak year for the CAA.

Ugly, But Effective for Northeastern (Recap of William and Mary vs. Northeastern CAA Tournament Quarterfinal)

In the First Round of the CAA Tournament, often you get games that are not aesthically pleasing and are often downright rockfights. Such was the case in the first game of the Friday evening session between #10 seeded William and Mary and #7 seeded Northeastern.

In the first five minutes, the Huskies went out to an 11-4 lead.  The The Tribe had hit their first shot, a three pointer by Brandon Britt, which gave them their only lead of the game at 3-2.  But then William and Mary proceeded to miss their next six shots and turn the ball over three times. Meanwhile, Quincy Ford was showing the crowd why he was named to the CAA All Rookie team, scoring six of the first eleven Northeastern points.

Northeastern then extended the lead to ten, 20-10 with about six and half minutes left.  But after only hitting on four of their first seventeen shots, William and Mary hit on five of their next eight shots while Northeastern went cold from the field, as they only hit one of their nine three point attempts.  The score at the half was 25-22.  It looked like the first team to fifty would win the game.

A year ago, I watched from the Richmond Coliseum stands as Quinn McDowell set an all time CAA Tournament record for point scored in a game with thirty five.  McDowell led his team to an upset of sixth seeded James Madison in the last game of the evening session. It was one of the greatest individual performances I had ever seen in a college basketball game. It was not the first time though that I had witnessed McDowell have a great night.  A few weeks earlier, McDowell had twenty eight points in a classic overtime game vs. Hofstra.

A year later and McDowell has been a shell of himself.  Coming into the game, McDowell was averaging three points less than last season.  His shooting percentage has been way down; 39.9 percent as opposed to 47.5 percent the year before. His three point shooting is significantly down as well; 34.3 percent as opposed to 45.5 percent last season.  Finally, his free throw shooting is also way down; 77 percent as opposed 86.6 percent last season.  He's taking the same number of shots and playing the same number of minutes as last season.

And I could see this from my seat on press row on the court of the Richmond Coliseum.  Though he was passing well (he had five assists), his shot was way off.  He missed four of his first five shots on the night.  And the man I saw last year drain free throw after free throw at the Mack Center and here on this court, missed all three free throws on the night.  It was as if I was watching a completely different player.

That was probably also the difference in the game.  As well as Tim Rusthoven and Marcus Thornton played, they were the only two players for the Tribe to score in double figures.  McDowell, a year removed from scoring thirty five points on this court, scored a total of six points on the night.

Meanwhile, Northeastern had more than enough to win the game.  They went out to a 14-5 run to start the second half to go up 39-27.  William and Mary would only get as close as three points, 46-43 ironically on a layup by McDowell, his last points on the night.

Ford led three Huskies' players in double figures with eighteen points, while Jonathan Lee had eleven points and Joel Smith had ten points. What makes Northeastern impressive is that their lone senior only played three minutes on the evening.  The Huskies would hit fourteen second half free throws and go on to win the game 57-49.

As I said, the first one to fifty won the game.  For Northeastern it was ugly, but effective.

As Usual, Havoc Prevails (Recap of Northeastern vs. VCU CAA Quarterfinal)

Coach Bill Coen had a huge task before him on Saturday evening.  His Northeastern team was playing VCU in the Richmond Coliseum in a "neutral" site game.  But as most people who follow the CAA know, that's about as neutral as Rush Limbaugh being a moderator in a Planned Parenthood debate. Still, the man who's suit jacket started a Twitter account would have his team ready, especially after a tough first round win over William and Mary.

The Richmond Coliseum was a sea of yellow as the Evening Session was sold out.  An announced crowd of 11,200 roared as Shaka Smart walked on the court.  The inventor of "Havoc" has a rock star following with Rams' fans, not unlike Anthony Grant did when he was the previous coach.  The difference is the VCU administration made a huge investment after last season's Final Four run to keep Smart here hopefully for the forseeable future.

The Rams started out strong, quickly jumping out to an 11-3 lead as they forced three quick turnovers on the Huskies.  Coen called timeout as he needed to find some way to calm his team down and quiet the raucous, but "neutral" Coliseum crowd.

Much to their credit, Northeastern hung around, due in their large part to their defense.  VCU continued to force a lot of turnovers on the Huskies, but couldn't  cash in.  Over the last seven minutes and forty two seconds of the first half, the Rams scored a total of three points.   As a result, what was a nine point lead slowly whittled away.   Jonathan Lee buried a three pointer to tie the game at twenty six at the half.

The great thing about the CAA Tournament is all the wonderful bands.   ODU, Drexel, JMU and Towson all have good bands.  George Mason is probably a step above them and VCU is right there with Doc Nix and the boys.

At the start of the second, VCU went out to a lead but Northeastern kept within striking distance.  When the Huskies weren't turning the ball over, they had success scoring against the Rams.  Northeastern shot nearly fifty four percent in the second half and fifty one percent for the game. The score was only 40-34 with fourteen and a half minutes remaining.

But then the walls came crashing down as VCU turned up "Havoc".  The Rams forced five Huskies' turnovers in the span of eight minutes.  This time, the Rams cashed in on those opportunities as their bench spurred them on.  Rob Brandenberg and Treveon Graham combined for twenty two points in a 24-9 run, which included five three pointers.   Brandenberg nailed three shots from beyond the arc and the score was 64-43 with about seven and a half minutes left.

Northeastern did not quit and actually cut the lead to eight, 71-63 with a little over a minute left.  But the hole was too big for the Huskies to climb out from and the Rams went onto win 75-65.   Brandenberg had nineteen points and Graham added eighteen to lead the way for VCU.  The Rams forced twenty five turnovers and their bench outscored the Huskies Bench 46-4 on the night.

Northeastern gave a spirited effort.  Lee, Joel Smith and Quincy Ford, all who are coming back next season, combined for fifty points on 17 of 35 shooting.  Coen has a terrific nucleus to work from next season.

But in this game, that nucleus just wasn't enough in the end.  Havoc and a three point shooting frenzy was just too much for the Huskies.

A Season Is Not Determined By Luck (Recap of Hofstra vs.Northeastern)

Over the years, there is luck involved in college basketball. I have seen several miracle half court shots go in.      Many times have I seen a buzzer beater to win a game.  There are strange bounces and questionable last second calls that have decided games.  And often I have seen as much bad luck as there is good luck.

But from my years experience of watching college basketball live, luck is not the overall determining factor in a team's overall success, whether a team is good or a team is a bad.  There are statistical reasons why teams are successful and why teams are not successful.  And if you watch the game closely, you can often see that play out on the court.  Good teams make their own luck and bad teams make their own luck too.

Case in point - Several basketball experts said Hofstra had a lot of luck going 14-4 in conference last season and 21-12 overall.   Ken Pomeroy's luck metric had  Hofstra as the sixth luckiest team in basketball in the 2011-12 season.  Furthermore, as John Templon of Big Apple Buckets stated on his site, Pomeroy's statistic noted that Hofstra won four more games than they should have last season.

This was noted in an article on this site called "Hofstra's 2010-11 Success Was All About Skill".  In my article, I disputed Pomeroy's statistic based on other statistics, specifically assists to turnover ratio, turnover margin and free throw shooting; three categories that Hofstra excelled in last season.  The Pride excelled in close games as well with a 9-4 record in games decided by seven points or less.  I noted it was because they had more possessions and hit their free throws down the stretch.  Basically, they did the little things right to win a game.

A week ago, the New York Times Quad Blog did a statistical historical analysis of the last ten seasons of teams in the CAA, which Hofstra is of course a member.  The analysis showed "that field-goal percentage defense and assist-to-turnover ratio are the statistics most correlated with teams winning the Colonial Athletic Association tournament."

In that same article, Hofstra Coach Mo Cassara stated "The most important statistic to me — that I really value — is assist-to-turnovers.. That’s the thing that I emphasize the most and I think correlates directly with winning.”

Shaka Smart was then quoted later in that same article stating " We look at turnover margin."  He went on further to say,"Sometimes it’s as simple as if we can force around 20 turnovers and have somewhere under 12 turnovers ourselves, then that’s 8, 10 extra possessions, and that’s huge for us."

Needless to say, I was thrilled to read all of those things. You had statistical correlation of why teams are successful.  And two successful coaches who valued ball possession, to me the most important part of a team's success.

But now here we are, one season later.  Hofstra entered their game with Northeastern with as many losses in conference this season than all last season and a losing record overall.  And of course, people have commented that luck has reversed its fate on the Pride this season.

And this season certainly has not been about a lack of heart or lack of talent.  The Pride have beaten Iona, Cleveland State and LIU, three very good teams that all currently lead their conferences.  I personally saw all three of those games and Hofstra played with intensity, grit and showed a lot of skill.

However, I am here to tell you again, it's not luck that Hofstra was 6-10 overall going into this game.  It's in the stats.  And the game against the Huskies sadly proved it again.

When I got to the Mack Center about twenty minutes before tipoff last night, I could tell the energy was lacking in the building.  First, there was no pep band, no cheerleaders and no dance team there.  The Lions' Den student section was barely noticeable due to there being no undergrad classes in session. Being a school night, there weren't a lot of kids there, sans the CYO team playing at the half and my six year old son, aka my color analyst Matthew.  It felt empty in Hempstead, and I wondered how that would affect the home team.

But it was the road team that came out flat.  The Huskies looked horrible at the beginning, missing their first seven shots.  Meanwhile, the Pride came out with energy and scored the game's first nine points as Stephen Nwaukoni continued his recent improved play with two hard earned layups.

But the reason the old, tired cliche of basketball is a game of runs is used so often is that it is so true so often.  And sure enough, Northeastern responded back with a run of their own, scoring the next twelve points as Hofstra forgot how to score, missing four straight shots and turning the ball over twice.  Joel Smith had eight of those twelve Huskies' point as they went up 12-9 with a little over eleven minutes left in the half.

Nathaniel Lester's three point play tied the game at twelve.  And then both teams managed to struggle together as they each scored an additional twelve points over the last ten plus minutes.  The game was tied at twenty four at the half and rightfully so, since their stats were so much similar.  Same number of field goals made, nine.  Same number of three pointers made; two.  Same number of free throws made; four.  Neither team shot well from the field; Hofstra 34 percent, Northeastern 39 percent.

The fans weren't pleased with the first half.  One season ticket holder I know said "This game is hard to watch".  My friend Tieff said "It's bad playing worse."  My color analyst was even harsher with his criticism.  At the start of the second half, I asked him "What do you think of the game so far?"  Matthew covered his eyes and grimaced.

The second half was strange.  At times, Northeastern's 3-2 zone gave Hofstra fits, as the Pride turned the ball over three times in the first four and a half minutes.  Yet when they solved the Huskies' defense, they hit their shots, hitting ten of their first sixteen attempts in the second half, often easy layups in the paint .  With nine minutes left in the game, Hofstra was up 50-43.

In particular, Lester was having a huge second half for the Pride. He would score fourteen of his nineteen points in the second half.  He got help from Nwaukoni, who had seven second half points and David Imes who also had seven second half points. Based on a Newsday report, Mike Moore struggled with a groin injury all night and had only nine points, twelve less than his season average.

But the stats started adding up and were not in Hofstra's favor.  First, the Pride turned the ball over four times in the next five minutes. They would have sixteen turnovers on the game.  Meanwhile, Northeastern, the team that averaged the second most turnovers in the CAA coming into the game at sixteen per game, only had ten turnovers on the night and had only one turnover in the final fifteen minutes of the game.

Also,  the Huskies couldn't miss from the field down the stretch, or perhaps the Pride couldn't stop them.  Coming into the game, Hofstra's two point field goal percentage defense was an unseemly 50 percent.   And Northeastern took advantage over those last nine minutes.  During those final nine minutes, the Huskies would shoot eight of twelve from the field, all two point field goals.

Northeastern would tie the game at fifty six on a jumper by Jonathan Lee.  Lee scored nineteen of his twenty one points in the second half, as he hit big shot after big shot.  And if it wasn't Lee, it was Smith who came through for the Huskies. His old fashioned three point play tied the contest at sixty with a little less than two minutes remaining in the game.

After Quincy Ford put the Huskies up two with two free throws, Lester came back with a strong layup to tie the game at sixty two.  But just like their losses to Florida Atlantic and James Madison,  Hofstra would again feel the sting of a late jumper.  Lee hit one with ten seconds left to put Northeastern up 64-62.

But unlike those two previous games, this time the Pride  had more than enough time left to tie or win the game.  After a timeout, Nathaniel Lester drove up the court against the Huskies' pressure.  But he would dribble the ball off himself out of bounds.  Their last and most crushing turnover of the game. After Hofstra fouled Lee off the inbounds play, Lee missed the front end of an one and one.  The Pride grabbed the rebound, but Lester's half court shot fell way short.  Another close game, another Hofstra loss, 64-62. The Pride were now 0-5 in conference and 6-11 overall.

As DefiantlyDutch, Jerry Beach noted in a tweet, the Huskies would score on seventeen of their last nineteen possessions.  So despite Hofstra shooting sixty percent in the second half, Northeastern shot fifty eight percent.   And when Northeastern didn't hit a field goal down the stretch, they went to the line, hitting five of their seven free throws.

Coming into the game, Northeastern was tenth in the CAA in free throw shooting at 66.5 percent.  Last night, the Huskies shot 71.4 percent from the line, hitting fifteen of their twenty one free throws.  Meanwhile, Hofstra which was third in the CAA in free throw shooting at 71.5 percent, shot only eleven of seventeen last night, 64.7 percent.  Perhaps the free throw shooting was lucky in different ways for Hofstra and Northeastern.

But you couldn't say that about the turnover margin.  As mentioned Northeastern had ten turnovers, Hofstra sixteen. That meant several more possessions for the Huskies than the Pride.  In a two point game, you could definitely say that was the difference.

Hofstra had seventeen assists to sixteen turnovers. Coming into the game, Hofstra was ninth in the CAA in assist to turnover ratio at 0.7.  Last season, the Pride were first in the CAA at 1.3.  And last season Hofstra was third in the CAA in turnover margin at + 2.29 per game.  Entering the game last night, they were fifth at +.69 per game.

This season, the Pride are 1-6 in games decided by seven points or less. And based on the statistics, you can say that most of that has to do with assist to turnover ratio and two point field goal percentage defense.  It doesn't have to do with luck.

The 1,654 fans that were mostly quiet for the entire game left the arena seemingly numb.  They had already seen the last second losses to James Madison and Florida Atlantic.  Perhaps they knew when the game was close, the statistics didn't favor the home team.   It didn't again last night.