Just Another Selection Sunday

This is my 500th post on my new site.  Never thought it would coincide with the 2011 NCAA Tournament Selection Sunday.  I wrote last April that expanding to 68 teams would end or at least weaken the Bubble Talk of "who should have been in" or "who should be out".   Well as I said with my "Sunday Sausage Links and Selection Sunday Thoughts", I was so wrong on that.  And then came the bracket announcements last evening, and I didn't even realize how wrong I was.  Wow.  I think the Bangles "Manic Monday" is only fitting reviewing yesterday's bracket announcement (plus Susanna Hoffs is gorgeous). So let's talk about the bracket announcements.

The Good - #3Bids4CAA came true as VCU got an at-large bid, a first round play in game vs. USC.  The Rams got rewarded for their neutral site win vs. UCLA, the road win vs. ODU and the CAA Tournament semifinal win vs. George Mason, along with their conference record.  Had they not blown a 12 point lead with 5 minutes left at UAB, there would be none of the fuss about the Rams you heard today from the so called experts on College Gameday.

On the five year anniversary of when the CAA should have had three bids in 2006, this committee did the right thing and rewarded VCU for its good conference record and the non conference win over UCLA.  And yes, the win at Wichita State in the BracketBuster game definitely helped (Wichita State received a NIT bid).

The Bad -  The seedings were just downright terrible.   Texas had been in the Top 10 for most of the year and they get a #4 seed while Florida got a #2 seed?  Richmond won the A-10 tournament, beat Temple, beat Purdue neutral site, beat VCU and got a #12 seed?   Georgia, who everyone had as a bubble team was given a #10 seed?   Michigan an #8 seed? Seriously?

How the holy hell is ODU a #9 seed (and they have to play Butler to boot)?!  ODU beat Xavier, Richmond, Clemson, won the CAA Tournament and has a RPI of 20.  That's unconscionable.

The I Don't Know - I thought Colorado had made the tournament.  Yes, their best non conference win was a home win over Colorado State and their non conference SOS was bad.  But they beat Kansas State (three times), Texas and Missouri in conference.  They got to their tournament semi final legitimately (unlike another team that got left out).   The problem for the Buffaloes was the RPI was 66, the non conference SOS was 331 (which is 2009-10 Virginia Techesque) and they were only .500 in conference with losses to Oklahoma, Iowa State and Nebraska.  Had they finished above .500 in conference and/or had beaten Harvard or won at Georgia, they would be in.  Still, shocked they were left out.

I didn't think UAB was going to be in.  A bubble team should never ever lose in its quarterfinals, especially when you are the #1 seed in your conference.   Plus UAB's best non conference win was a home win over VCU, only because of the aforementioned blown lead by the Rams.  I guess the committee rewarded them for winning Conference USA.

What it came down to is that the committee rewarded some teams like USC and VCU for good non conference wins and UAB for winning Conference USA.  And the committee punished teams like Colorado and Virginia Tech for weak non conference schedules and mediocre conference records.    Plus, I guess the Westin Wise Men wanted to see how much they could upset the College Gameday folks like Digger Phelps, Hubert Davis and Jay Bilas.  Mission accomplished, guys.

So on the positive side, the committee rewarded the mid majors, especially the CAA.  On the negative side, the seedings were just wacked.   Ah, just another Selection Sunday.

Oh and don't feel bad Virginia Tech, Boston College, Alabama and Colorado fans.  You each got a #1 seed in the NIT.  Yes that lovely tournament run by C.M. Newton and the boys.   Talk about wacked seeding.  Harvard beat Colorado and won at Boston College.  They got a #6 seed.  C.M. was interviewed on the ESPNU NIT Selection Show and said they spent a lot of time deciding the #1 seeds.  Well after seeing Harvard get a #6 seed, I don't think they spent enough time.  And oh yeah, the CAA didn't get any NIT bids.  They had to settle for three CBI bids.

Selection Sunday is over.  Time for the First Four.   NCAA Tournament March Madness begins Tuesday.  Can't wait.

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Sunday Sausage Links and Selection Sunday Thoughts

Before we get into Selection Sunday, I have to take issue with something that I think has gone seriously under the radar.  Providence fired Keno Davis after just three seasons with the Friars.  Providence athletic director Bob Driscoll had some damning words for Keno Davis stating that with star player Marshon Brooks ""is probably going to the NBA and the kids coming in probably aren't as good, so it just felt like it was stalling and going backwards a bit."

Damn, that was just an open shot at Davis' incoming recruits and the team that will be returning.  Driscoll further stated  "There's no question we can be in the top half of the Big East, and if you're in the top half of the Big East, you're in the NCAA tournament. So it's absolutely doable with the right leadership and the right kind of support.

Well let's talk about the previous coach that Driscoll fired at Providence, Tim Welsh.  In Welsh's ten seasons at Providence, they made the NCAA twice and the NIT three times.  Welsh's career record was 145-126.  And Welsh was the coach who recruited Marshon Brooks.  Driscoll didn't think Welsh did a good enough job (geez a winning record overall as a Big East coach) and replaced him with Davis.

Driscoll seriously needs a reality check.  The Big East is by far the best Power Six conference and currently has 16 teams in it with TCU coming on board soon as well.  The conference will have eleven teams make the NCAA Tournament.  Three teams that ARE BELOW the top half of the conference - UConn, Villanova and Marquette will make the NCAA Tournament.  So to paraphrase Driscoll, to think without question that Providence can be in the top half of the Big East, well  it isn't going to be so easy.   Word of warning to coaches that are interested in that position.  Driscoll has all the patience of my five year old son.  Enough said.

Well it's Selection Sunday.  Unless you have been under a rock the last few days, you must have seen so many of the close games in conference tournaments.  And it hasn't just been the mid major tournaments, it's been the power six conference tournaments that have had games go down to the final shot as well.  Here's a list of a few of them.

• Princeton defeats Harvard on a last second shot by Douglas Davis.
• John Holland hits two free throws with 2.4 seconds left to give Boston University their first lead of the day to defeat Stony Brook for the America East title.
• Isaiah Thomas hits a buzzer beater as Washington defeats Arizona in OT for the PAC-10 title.
• Akron blocks two shots in the final seconds to defeat Kent State by one in OT for the MAC title.
• Preston Knowles three point attempt to tie the game at the buzzer misses as UConn beats Louisville for Big East title.
• Memphis' Joe Jackson hits 2 free throws with 7 seconds left as Memphis downs UTEP by one for the Conference USA title.
• .NC's Tyler Zeller hits a shot with 45 seconds left to force OT vs. Clemson as the Tar Heels win semifinal game vs. Clemson.  The day before, Zeller hits a layup at the buzzer to defeat Miami.
• Virginia Tech defeats Florida State by one after an apparent game winning shot at the buzzer is overturned (incorrectly in my view) after officials review the replay.
• Carleton Scott hits a late shot in regulation to force overtime and Louisville eventually defeats Notre Dame in Big East semifinal game.
• Scoop Jardine hits a late three to force overtime for Syracuse.  But UConn wins in overtime.
• Luke Fabrizius hits two late free throws to give Dayton a win over Xavier.  Dayton then defeats St Joseph's to play for the A-10 Championship today.
• San Diego State barely holds off UNLV by two points in a Mountain West semifinal game.  The Aztecs then trounce BYU to win the MWC Championship.
• Wisconsin's Jordan Taylor misses a potential tying three point attempt at the end of the regulation and Penn State likely makes the NCAA tournament with a 36-33 win in the ugliest game I can ever remember.

That's thirteen close games in just the past two days.  That's incredible.  That doesn't even include Kemba Walker's buzzer beater heroics vs Pitt on Thursday. What does it all mean?  I think very simply that this might be the most wide open NCAA Tournament ever.   Yes, there is potentially a dominant team like Kansas that could very well reach the Final Four.  But Duke, Pitt, Notre Dame and San Diego State, all potential number one seeds, could easily get knocked off in the round of 32 by say an Old Dominion or a Butler (two potential #8 seeds).  Get ready for the most exciting NCAA Tournament ever.

There are a lot of bubble teams that don't know if they will get in or not today on Selection Sunday.  And complicating things is the fact that Dayton with a win over Richmond today gets an auto bid with the A-10.  Thus there would be one less slot for bubble teams.  Penn State is definitely in after making the Big Ten final.  After that, it's anybody's guess.  Teams considered on the bubble are Michigan, Michigan State, Boston College, Clemson, Virginia Tech, St Mary's, VCU, Harvard, USC, UAB, Alabama, Georgia and Missouri State.   You could put all these teams in a blender, set it on high, then dump out the contents to see what goes where.

And I though with the tournament expanding to sixty eight teams that it would be easier to figure out the bubble teams.  Well I was dead wrong.  If you would like, use the world famous (OK, maybe not world famous) Moore Selection Sunday Primer to figure out what teams should make it.  Here's my guess on it all.

Missouri State - Great RPI, not much else.  Name the best team they beat non-conference.  I dare you.  Double Dare you.  Sorry, Bears, Missouri Valley is a one bid league.

Boston College - Got smoked in the ACC quarterfinals by Clemson.   Lost to fellow bubble team Harvard AT BOSTON COLLEGE.   Sorry, you're out too.

UAB - Lost in the Conference USA quarterfinals.  That's a no no in the Moore Primer. Also lost to fellow bubble team Georgia.   Blazers meet the NIT.

St Mary's - Best wins are non conference home game vs. St John's and road win vs. Gonzaga.  Struggled down the stretch though losing four out of their last seven games including a really bad loss vs. San Diego.  Hunker down Gaels' fans,it's going to be close today.

VCU - Have the good non conference win over UCLA and a good RPI of 51. Wins over George Mason and ODU certainly help.  Negatives, a loss to UAB could be used against them.  Losses to Northeastern, Georgia State and South Florida not helpful.  Definitely in the mix on Sunday.  Would love to see #3BidsForCAA come true.

Alabama -  First in the SEC West with a 12-4 conference record.   Made the SEC semifinals but got smoked by Kentucky.  They do have two wins vs. fellow bubble team Georgia.  RPI is 80.  No t a single good non conference win.  Ruh roh.

Georgia -  They have a win over Colorado and a win over fellow bubble team UAB. Also wins over Kentucky and Tennsessee.  Good RPI #46.  Bad news- only a 9-7 conference record and lost both games to Alabama, one of which was in SEC Quarterfinals.   Will be very tense day for Bulldogs.

Harvard -  Good non conference wins at Boston College and Colorado.  #37 in RPI is very good as well.   Except for bad loss to Yale, only other losses were to Princeton twice, UConn, George Mason and Michigan, all teams in the tournament.    Very close call on Harvard.  Honestly, I would put them in before St Mary's.

Virginia Tech  -  If it wasn't for the referees incorrectly overturning the buzzer beater against Florida State in the ACC Quarterfinals (and folks that replay was not conclusive.  Just try proving to me otherwise), the Hokies would be done.  Their non conference schedule stinks and they lost to UVA twice.  Somehow I think they are in, especially since they made the ACC semis and beat Duke.

Clemson - Made the ACC semifinals and smoked BC to get there.  Barely lost to NC in overtime in the semifinal.  The fact that they also beat Virginia Tech and Florida State should get them in.  But their best non conference win is over Wofford, so the Tigers will sweat somewhat on Sunday.  But I think they are in.

USC - The good.  Non conference wins over Texas and Tennessee.  Conference wins over UCLA, Arizona and Washington.  All five of those teams are in the dance.  Bad news, 10-8 in PAC 10 not great. Two losses to Oregon, a loss to TCU and Bradley.  Ugh. Will be close for the Trojans on Sunday.

Michigan State - The trouncing of Purdue in the Big Ten Quarterfinals got them in.  Also beat Washington non conference and the Spartans also have wins over Wisconsin, Illinois and Penn State.   Pretty sure they are in.

Michigan - Good non conference wins vs. Clemson and Harvard (otherwise known as the Tommy Amaker Bowl).  Beat Michigan State twice and Penn State twice and defeated Illinois as well. Made the conference semis vs. Ohio State.  Despite .500 conference record, no really bad losses to speak of in conference.   They are in.

Some other things of note.

As you may know from my CAA Tournament preview, I love Frank Hassell.  And Hassell had an absolutely dominant performance in the CAA Tournament averaging nearly 23 points per game in the three ODU wins.  The Monarchs are 15-0 now when Hassell has a double double.  Did you also know that twelve of those fifteen double doubles were from January 15th on?  Also, did you know that Hassell has shot 73 percent from the field over his last six games.  Finally, Hassell has moved up to fifth in the John Hollinger College Player Efficiency Ratings, one spot ahead of Charles Jenkins. Agaiin, to quote Brian Mull as far as ODU goes, "Hassell drives their train."

Mike Litos has a terrific article comparing the resume of VCU to the other teams on the bubble.

Ryan Greene of the Yahoo Sports'  The Dagger has a great blog article on Princeton's win over Harvard.

Our man, Jerry Beach, has a great article on how skewered the NIT will be toward Power Six conference teams come selection time tonight.

Finally, John Branch of the NY Times has a good article on Brandon Davies of BYU.

Enjoy your Selection Sunday.

Review of the 2011 CAA Men's Basketball Tournament

The 2011 CAA Tournament lived up to its billing.  There were close games, major upsets, buzzer beaters, end to end action, raucous crowds and of course, bad officiating.  And what was at first a blowout in the championship game turned out to be an exciting finish and an opportunity for three bids for the conference.

When heading to Richmond Coliseum last Friday had anyone said to me that I would see four first round games that day where the margin of victory would be six points or less, I would have replied "Unlikely, but I will take it."  It's very rare that you see that many close games in a tournament.  But that's what you had on Friday.

I thought Georgia State would be deflated after their coach Rod Barnes was fired on Sunday.  And it sure looked like it after the Seahawks went out to a 16-8 lead.  But the Panthers responded with a 16-1 run over a six and a half minutes to go up 24-17 with six plus minutes left in the half.  Georgia State went into the half up 28-26.   They eventually won 58-52 in what was a very ugly game with a lack of scoring. 

UNCW was held to 29.5 percent shooting from the field.  Chad Tomko reverted to the Tomko pre 2010-11.  He struggled at the end missing five of his last six shots with three turnovers.  Tomko shot an ugly 7 of 21 for the game.

In the second game, twelve seeded Towson was looking for its first win in conference all season vs the fifth seeded Drexel Dragons.  And as I wrote in article for Defiantly Dutch, the three fans who came out to support their team got to see the Tigers play valiantly against the Dragons.  Unfortunately, Towson's late rally was not enough to get their first win in conference as Drexel moved on with a 75-69 win.  For more details, please click here for my article.

In the evening session, Northeastern came out smoking from the outside, shooting 8 of 16 including five three pointers, two by Chaisson Allen, to jump out to a 25-14 lead.  But Jawan Carter and his twelve first half points would lead the Blue Hens back as they outscored the Huskies 13-4 the rest of half as Delaware was down only two, 29-27 at the half.  In the second half, Delaware forced Northeastern to keep shooting from the outside and the Huskies only shot 32 percent while shooting 51 percent in a 60-58 win.  Chaisson Allen struggled in his final game for Northeastern as he only went 3 of 12 from the field.

In the last game of the day on Friday, #6 seed James Madison took on #11 William and Mary.  When the Dukes came out from the tunnel, they just walked on the court.  There was no sense of urgency, which was strange given the Tribe had defeated the Dukes at Harrisonburg.   The game was tied 34 at the half, yet when the Dukes came out of the tunnel early and sat on their bench while their dance team finished one routine and then did their final routine.   It was amazing how much it seemed that Madison didn't care.  Immediately I turned to Tieff and said, "They are going to lose. Mark my words."

The game was close throughout and one of the most bizarre moments in CAA Tournament history took place with W&M ahead 65-63 .  JMU  had two chances to tie or take the lead.  After missing the second opportunity, JMU Coach Matt Brady must have said something really bad to the official as he was running down the court on a W&M fast break.  The official stopped play right there and called a technical foul on Brady.  Quinn McDowell buried two free throws  and the Tribe were back out ahead 67-63.

JMU rallied and took the lead 68-67 on a Devon Moore layup with 1:21 left. But two Britt free throws gave W&M the lead back.   JMU couldn't score the rest of the way and the Tribe won, upsetting the Dukes 72-68.  Quinn McDowell was unreal that night.  He scored a tournament record 35 points on 10 of 12 shooting, including 5 of 6 from beyond the arc and 10 of 11 from the line.   He missed his last free throw attempt.

What was really strange in that game was that Denzel Bowles had zero points at the half and only five for the game.  W&M played a soft double team on him the entire night and took him out of the game.  He eventually took himself out of the game with five fouls and his body language all night was just bad.  There were many NBA scouts there that night sitting a few rows ahead of us.  I am pretty sure he didn't endear himself to them.

It was on to the quarterfinals where in three of the four games, the lower seed came out and took a substantial lead, only to have the higher seed comeback and win convincingly.   In the first game, Georgia State went out to an impressive 27-16 lead over George Mason with seven minutes left in the first half.  However the Patriots went on a 42-9 run over the two halves as they simply clamped down on the Panthers with incredible defense.

George Mason forced 21 Georgia State turnovers and the Panthers lack of a go to scorer killed them in the second half.  The Patriots went on to win the game 68-45.  Ten Mason players contributed points in the win.  And while Ryan Pearson had nine free throw attempts (hitting seven of them), it seemed like he was there even more than that.

Then you had the second game of the day, Drexel and VCU.  It was a classic Bruiser Flint game - low scoring for the most part, physical defense, lots of rebounds, lots of fouls and at times, damn ugly to watch.   And the crowd LOVED it.   The score was tied 23 at the half and what looked like was going to be a score in the fifties.  After the first fifty one minutes, the teams combined for only eighty points as the score was 41-39 VCU.

Yet somehow the teams managed to score forty two points in the last ten minutes of what turned out to be a very exciting game.  And a very badly officiated game.   First the foul differential was  unreal.  Drexel was called for 27 fouls while VCU had 19.  Second in free throw attempts, Drexel had 17 (only making 10 of them), while VCU had 37 (making 26 of them).

The coup de gras moment was with 4:12 left, Samme Givens hit a layup and went into Joey Rodriguez who was LITERALLY underneath the basket.  The referee called a charge on Givens which sent the non VCU fans howling and Bruiser Flint into a tizzy.   Bruiser literally walked to the corner of the court by the baseline so he could vent there by himself.   Meanwhile the officials gathered and in attempt to make it up, counted the basket yet kept the foul on Givens, which was his fourth.   Rodriguez hit two foul shots.  So instead of 51-50 VCU, it was now 53-50 VCU and Givens had four fouls and would eventually foul out.

The game looked over with the Rams up five 57-52 with 1:07 left.  But Drexel rallied as Chris Fouch hit two threes and a layup in the span of thirty four seconds while VCU missed three free throws, including two by Rodriguez.  The game was tied at 60.  But Jamie Skeen, who had been a horse all day with 24 points and 8 rebounds, hit a layup as time expired and the Rams won 62-60.   It was exciting but damn ugly.  Forty Six fouls, thirty one turnovers (seven by Rodriguez who had a horrid game) and eighteen missed free throws.  Typical Drexel-VCU game.

In the evening session, which was totally sold out, Delaware, who had split the regular season series with ODU, went out to a 17-8 lead.  ODU rallied and went into the half up 27-25.   The game remained close for the first ten minutes of the second half as Devon Saddler buried a three pointer to tie up the game at 35 with just about ten minutes left in the game.   But the Monarchs clamped down on Saddler and Jawan Carter while Frank Hassell and friends went to work.

ODU went on a 15-4 run over the span of a little more than five minutes to go up 50-39.   Delaware  would never get closer than six points the rest of the way as Old Dominion won 59-50. Hassell was his usual self, scoring 24 points, grabbed 10 rebounds and shooting 9 of 13 from the field. The Monarchs would shoot 48 percent from the field, which would be a trend for the team that was at the bottom end in the CAA in FG percentage.

In the last game of the quarterfinals, Hofstra was facing William and Mary for the third time. The Pride had swept the season series but both were very close games.    W&M went out to a 9-0 lead. But Hofstra rallied and using a suffocating defense and a strong second half surge, the Pride would defeat the Tribe 72-56.  For more on this game, click here.

So it was on to the semifinals, a capacity crowd at the Richmond Coliseum and a rocking atmosphere. There was the battle of the pep bands as George Mason's band took turns with VCU's band as they tried to one up each other. The funniest moment was after Mason did a rocking version of Thriller.  The VCU band started doing a few bars of their own version of Thriller which got the Mason band and student section howling.  The VCU band pranked them as they kicked into another song. The VCU band had Mason's band's number and soon the Rams would have the Patriots' number as well.

George Mason came into the game with a 16 game winning streak while VCU had the majority of the crowd in their favor. And Jamie Skeen ignited the crowd with two threes as the Rams went up 16-8 early.  The Patriots would come back and a Cam Long three point play put the Patriots up 20-18 ten minutes into the first half.  Mason Nation, most of which was sitting by us in our section, was quite pleased with GMU's 12-2 run. 

But Ed Nixon put the Rams back up 21-20 with a three pointer,  And it was the beginning of a monster 21-2 run by VCU as they would hit five three point bombs during the eight and a half minute span.  Long's layup before the half would cut the deficit to fourteen as the Rams entered the locker room with a fourteen point lead, 39-25.  VCU had nine threes at the half, three by Skeen.

The two questions starting the second half was one, whether VCU could keep up their torrid shooting and two, how would Mason respond starting the second half.   The Patriots quickly responded by working the ball inside for layups and they cut the Rams' lead in half, 44-37 not even four minutes into the second half.

But Jamie Skeen buried his fourth three of the game and the lead was back to ten, 47-37.  The Patriots would never get closer than ten points the rest of the way.  Mason couldn't stop VCU and they looked out of sync on offense.  Mike Morrison quickly fouled out in the second half and Long had more than a third of his team's points with 20.  The rest of his team scored 46 points.  Skeen and Burgess combined for 37 points, 17 rebounds and seven three pointers as VCU stunned the number one seeded Mason 72-56.  

The question for many fans was could Hofstra knock off Old Dominion and perhaps give CAA fans the strong possibility of three CAA teams making the NCAA Tournament (or as the tweet hashtag would say #3BidsForCAA).  The VCU fans stuck around to see if that possibility could be a reality while the Mason fans headed for the exits.

Both teams came out smoking from the field.  Hofstra hit eight of their first eleven field goal attempts while Old Dominion hit six of their first nine field goal attempts.  Barely ten minutes into the first half and the score was ODU 22 Hofstra 21. 

About one minute later, Hofstra's Greg Washington who had been a major part of the Pride's offense with seven points, most of which came on cuts to the basket off screens, picked up his second foul.  When Washington left the game, the Pride offense struggled for over five minutes shooting 2 of 9.  The Monarchs took advantage stretching their lead to eight, 33-25.  The Pride cut the lead back to three, 33-30 on a three pointer by Brad Kelleher and a jumper by Charles Jenkins, who had eight points and four assists in the first half.  But ODU would get the lead back to seven, 41-34 at halftime.

The question would be whether both teams could keep up such a high scoring pace, especially an ODU team that was for a good part of the season till recently towards the bottom in FG percentage , yet was first in scoring defense.  The answer turned out to be yes, much to the chagrin of the Hofstra faithful.

The Pride could not make up any ground on the Monarchs over the first few minutes.  In fact, ODU actually extended their lead to 52-41 on a Darius James' three as the Monarchs hit three of their first four FG attempts and also added four free throws as as well. 

Hofstra though came back and cut the deficit in half to 56-50 on a Jenkins three, his fourth with 12 minutes left.  The Pride had two chances to cut the deficit even further on their next two possessions as Kelleher got a five second inbounds call against him (only their fourth turnover of the game) and Jenkins missed on a layup attempt (yes, a definite rarity). 

The Pride would never get closer the rest of the way, though they did their best to hang around.  They just couldn't stop the Monarchs on the defensive end, especially Frank Hassell.  Hassell had 22 points on 6 of 9 shooting from the field and 10 of 12 from the line.  And while Hofstra did a really good job of holding their own against the best rebounding team in the nation (ODU only outrebounded Hofstra 29-26), the Monarchs as a whole shot a scolding 57 percent from the field.  So while Hofstra did a good job of scoring 69 points against the best scoring defense in the CAA (ODU only gives up 58 points per game), ODU scored 77 points. 

So while the final was set with the CAA's biggest rivalry VCU vs. ODU, Tieff and I made our way back up to New York on a very rainy Sunday evening.  As everyone knows, in the championship game, ODU went out to an eighteen point second half lead only to see VCU rally to cut the deficit to one.  The Monarchs held on for a 70-65 win in front of perhaps the loudest televised CAA crowd I can ever remember.

VCU has gained ground swelling support for an at large bid while George Mason seems assured of another at large bid, while ODU waits to see what seed they will get.   Sound familiar?  It should.  Just like I said in my CAA Tournament preview, it's 2006 all over again.  The question is, will VCU play the part of Hofstra this time?

WhiteOut in Brooklyn as LIU Defeats Robert Morris in Overtime To Win NEC Championship

Today was one of those days.  I got into work early to get some projects done.  As busy as the morning was, my day came to a screeching halt around 11:45 AM when I saw a familiar extension as my phone rang.  It was the Hofstra Day Care number and I knew there couldn't be good news.  As I answered the phone, I found out my younger son, Jonathan, had a 101.2 fever.  I called my wife, told her news and that I was going to pick him up and take him home.

I got to the day care to see my son being held.  He was quite warm and quite mushy.  I took him home, then gave him Tylenol.  Then I spent the afternoon between playing with him and his seemingly thousands of matchbox cars while trying to keep up with my work e-mail.

Around  5:00 PM, I picked up older son Matthew from his afterschool program.  Shortly thereafter my wife got home and I ran out of the house.  I had plans.  My friends Mal, Tieff and I were meeting up in Brooklyn to see the NEC Championship game between Robert Morris and LIU-Brooklyn.

Now this game had some interesting subplots, well as far as I was concerned.  First, you had Long Island, where I live, playing Robert Morris, which is in Pittsburgh, where my family is from.  Second, my familiarity with LIU stems from my good friend Tony Bozzella being the former coach of the Lady Blackbirds before he went to Iona.  In his first season at LIU Brooklyn in 2001, the Lady Blackbirds won the NEC Championship.  It was the only time in history that LIU Brooklyn went to the NCAA Women's Basketball Tournament.   They ended up traveling to Storrs and faced and lost to top seeded UConn.  It would also be one of the most memorable and hilarious road trips I ever took.

Finally, it was ten years ago this week that I saw Hofstra defeat Delaware at the Mack Center to win the America East Championship for the second year in a row (and before they headed to the CAA, much to the chagrin of Defiantly Dutch).  It was the last time I saw a team win a D1 mid major conference tournament championship.  I knew I was going to see one this night.  You had the defending NEC champion Colonials taking on the current regular season champion Blackbirds.  And it lived up to the billing and then some.

We got to the Wellness Recreation Athletic Center a couple of minutes into the game with Robert Morris ahead 9-7.  The WRAC, as it's known, is a 3,000 seat arena/gym that was built in 2005.  It has suites, an electronic scoreboard and it holds sound well.  Really well.  When we got there, the place was rocking.  And it was so packed that we were one of the last allowed in to the arena.  So even if you had tickets, you weren't getting in.

The only section available to us was the student section behnd the Robert Morris basket.  In fact we were sitting right next to the RMU pep band,   In the one section of seats was the pep band and Colonials' supporters (and RMU also had the entire section behind the RMU bench.  The rest of the seats on this end were entirely filled with Blackbirds' supporters.

So there was Mal, Tieff and I standing with the LIU students. most of them clad in white for "The Whiteout".  And we joined in on the cheering for the Blackbirds and heckling of the RMU players, especially at the free throw line.   In all the years of going to college basketball games, I never acted like a student (that's me in the green sweater), till  this game.  It was different and it was fun.

The game was a nip and tuck affair for the entire 45 minutes.  Robert Morris led most of the first half. Russell Johnson buried several threes in the first half for the Colonials.  But Jamal Olasewere kept the Blackbirds close with seventeen first half points. Olasewere actually had a chance to tie the game at the half, but only hit one of two free throws.  LIU struggled from the line at the first half shooting 6 of 13 from the charity stripe.   Instead of being up by a few points at the half, the Blackbirds trailed the Colonials 33-32.

The second half saw LIU finally take a substantial lead as the Blackbirds outscored the Colonials 18-8 over the first six minutes.  They were led by Jason Brickman, who reminded the three of us of Joey Rodriguez on VCU, only a little more disciplined.  Brickman nailed two three pointers, two free throws and assisted on a layup to put LIU 50-41 with 14:08 left.

But the Colonials would not go away. Robert Morris responded with a 8-1 spurt over a nearly two and half minute period.  Lijah Thompson would score five points and add an assist to make the score 51-49 LIU with 11:46 left.    The pace though was definitely in the favor of LIU.  And the Blackbirds would again go on a spurt, this time a 8-2 spurt as Brickman assisted on two more baskets as LIU went up  59-51.  The lead would still be eight,72-64 with 2:29 left. It looked like LIU was going to win the game.

But Robert Morris wouldn't quit.  The Colonials battled for two offensive rebounds on their next possession and scored a basket.  RMU pressed, forced a steal  and that would lead to a three pointer which cut the deficit to three.  After the teams traded baskets, with 55 seconds left and the ball, LIU tried to run the clock down instead of running their offense.  Towards the end of the possession, the Blackbirds tried to force a play and it ended up in the hands of Thompson.  The Colonials found Johnson for an open three point look and he buried it to tie the game at 74.  LIU missed a shot at the buzzer and it was only fitting that we had overtime.

The momentum appeared to be on Robert Morris' side and the Colonials scored the first basket in overtime to go up two.  The teams traded points and RMU was still up 80-78 with 2:29 left.  Then Olasewere made a jumper to tie the game and Robert Morris turned the ball over on their next possession.  Again, Olasewere scored and the Blackbirds were up two.

One of the key factors on the night was that both teams struggled at the free throw line and in the next three possessions,  three free throws were missed.   Johnson missed one, then Olasewere, then Johnson again.  Neither team could seemingly capitalize on the charity stripe.  The lead was only one, 83-82 with 44 seconds left and LIU had the ball.  The Robert Morris fans chanted DE-FENSE while the LIU fans were in a frenzy.

Again, one of the most prolific offenses in the NCAA decided to run the clock down instead of running their offense and fired up a three with only a few second s left on the shot clock. Fortunately for the Blackbirds, they grabbed not one but two offensive rebounds and Brickman was fouled with seven seconds left.  The Joey Rodriguez clone sank both free throws and Robert Morris called timeout after a long pass with six seconds left and the chance to tie.



The above video that I took at the end of the game tells the final part of the story.  But for those of you who don't want to sit through the video, Robert Morris had two semi open three point attempt looks but missed both and time expired with the LIU fans storming the court having won an 85-82 thriller in overtime.  Mr. Mid Majority himself, Kyle Whelliston was at the game in his suit and a very sweet bow tie.   Bally was by his side at courtside. But when the fans stormed, so did Bally and Kyle.  Their video is here (Notice Bally about ten seconds in).

Instead of storming the court, Mal, Tieff and I viewed the festivities for a couple of minutes and then left through a back door.  Thanks to some LIU fans at the parking garage, instead of driving back down Myrtle Avenue which took forever for us to get to the WRAC, we took Flatbush Avenue (where we saw the construction started for the new Nets Arena) then headed to the BQE and home.  We all agreed we had to go back to the WRAC to see more games as we were impressed with LIU's relatively new arena.

When I got home, my older son Matthew was on his little chair bed in the living room, his best friend by his side.   I don't if he was having visions of championships and court stormings in his head but he seemed content.  I brought him upstairs and tucked him in.

Someday, perhaps he too will be seeing a championship game with a court storming.   Perhaps I will be there with him too.  It's something you have to see, and I was glad to see one again, ten years later.

The Blog Swap Is On

Just got home from the CAA Tournament.  Yes, Hofstra lost, much to my chagrin.  But they played well and just happened to run into a very good ODU team.  More on that tomorrow.   Since sleep is needed, I just wanted to let you know that I have an article on Defiantly Dutch's website concerning three loyal Towson fans and their Tigers team playing Drexel in the first round of the CAA Tournament.   Click here to read the article.   Hope you like it.

Hofstra Advances To CAA Semifinals By Knocking off William and Mary

Since the CAA went to twelve teams in the 2005-06 season, this was the third time Hofstra had a bye in the first round.  And it was also the third time the Pride was the third seed, which meant they played the last game on Saturday night.  As much as I love watching basketball, when your team is playing its first game as the eighth game on the second day of the CAA Tournament, you get nervous and a little impatient.  I was chomping at the bit waiting for Hofstra's first game.

After watching the other three top seeds hold serve in one fashion or another, Hofstra fans like me were prepared for the last game of the CAA Quarterfinals against #11 seed William and Mary last night.  The Pride faithful had to be concerned as several us had watched the Tribe played a spirited game in knocking off  #6 James Madison on Friday night.  Quinn McDowell, who scored 28 points in his last game against Hofstra, scored a tournament record 35 points vs. the Dukes.  And also there were the two close games Hofstra played against W&M, both wins.  The second win was of course the classic comeback against the Tribe that cemented Charles Jenkins legend in Hofstra basketball lore.

So the question was could Hofstra sweep William and Mary or would they fall victim to the old adage that you can't beat a team three times in a season? Then there was McDowell, who perhaps might be the hottest player in the CAA going into the game.  Then throw in a terrific game manager of a coach in Tony Shaver, and you had to be nervous.

Finally, a little after 8:30 PM, the game started and William and Mary picked up right where they left off the night before.  The Tribe jumped out to a 9-0 lead not even four minutes into the game.  Early on, Hofstra looked out of sync, settling for jumpers and Charles Jenkins missed two free throws to boot.  Meanwhile, W&M had worked it inside for layups by Marcus Kitts and Kendrix Brown.  And of course there was a McDowell three.

But the Pride found their stride and scored the next eleven points.  Jenkins hit a layup, then assisted on a three pointer by Brad Kelleher.  Six more points later and Hofstra was up 11-9 with 13 minutes left.   The teams would struggle to score for the next few minutes and the game would be tied at 15 with seven and a half minutes left in the first half.

But again, W&M would go on another run.  The Tribe would outscore the Pride 8-2 as Brandon Britt and McDowell contributed with two threes and W&M was up 23-17 with four minutes left.  But the Pride would rally with their own 8-2 run as Mike Moore's jumper tied the game at 25.   Two Marcus Kitts free throws on what seemed to be a phantom foul would end the half with William and Mary up 27-25.  

If you were one of the many Hofstra students that made the trip from Hempstead down to Richmond, you had to be happy that your team was only down two points at the half, despite Charles Jenkins only having five points in the first 20 minutes.  You knew The Man would have one of his patented second half runs.  It was only a matter of time.

The second half started with the Mary maintaining a small lead, 32-29 barely three minutes into the second half.  Then Hofstra started taking over with a balanced attack. Moore buried a three to tie the game at 32.  Then Jenkins hit a layup to put Hofstra up for good 34-32.   Jenkins, Kelleher and Moore would combine for another eleven points and the Pride lead swelled to 45-36.

W&M would briefly cut the lead to six, 47-41 with 10:15 left.  Then Hofstra used suffocating defense to force three William and Mary turnovers to ignite a 15-0 run over the next four minutes.  Jenkins three pointer started the run and two Jenkins free throws ended the run.  The Pride was up 62-41 with six minutes left and the Tribe was exhausted, having spent a lot of their energy beating JMU the night before.   Now Hofstra had pressured them to the point of expiration.

After scoring a CAA Tournmament record 35 points vs. James Madison, McDowell was hounded by Hofstra all night, whether it was David Imes, Moore, Yves Jules or Jenkins guarding him.  He was only 2 of 6 from the field.  Also, after shooting 10 of 11 free throws Friday night, McDowell didn't have a single free throw attempt against the Pride.   With their best scorer held to six points, the Tribe were done.  Hofstra would win their third game against W&M this season, this time winning easily 72-56.

Having seen Hofstra all season, I honestly think it might have been their best defensive performance, especially the last 20 minutes.  The Pride forced fifteen Tribe turnovers while only committing two turnovers themselves.  Hofstra also had great balance.  Jenkins had 20 points of course, but Kelleher added 12, Moore 11 and Imes had 10 points and 8 rebounds. Shemiye McLendon again was a great spark off the bench with 9 points.  The Pride are now 19-1 when three or more players score in double figures.  Hofstra was also 19 of 22 from the line.   Finally, Coach Mo Cassara's game plan to take McDowell out of the game worked perfectly.

As the team celebrated with their fans after the game, the Pride know they have a quick turnaround later today with #2 seed Old Dominion.  If Hofstra can continue the suffocating defense they had vs. the Tribe and limit the Monarchs on the offensive glass like they did vs W&M (only four offensive boards), then they have an excellent chance to move to the finals.

This time, I won't have to wait nearly two days to see this next game.

Greetings from Richmond! It's CAA Tournament Time

Greetings from Richmond!  We got into our hotel room at 4:00 am this morning.  But not before we had a late night dinner at Waffle House.  OK, a late night breakfast.

Before I head out to the Friday afternoon session, I wanted to let you know that Defiantly Dutch, aka Mr. Jerry Beach, and I will be doing our annual blog swap just in time for the CAA Tournament.   Both of our stories are hush hush. However, I will say that my article for his blog will be based on an idea he gave me.

The trip to Richmond last night/this morning was quite interesting.  I had met up with Tieff in New York City where he works.  He already had my luggage from the night before, so we attempted to go from midtown Manhattan to the Prudential Center, AKA, the Rock.  Seton Hall was hosting St John's last night and as you may know, the Pirates upset the Johnnies 82-70.   That will be for a later article.

We only got to the arena a little before halftime due to a nasty accident in the Lincoln Tunnel which forced a lot of traffic to go to the Holland Tunnel where we went instead.  After an exciting game with a very wild ending where St John's coach Steve Lavin and St John's forward Justin Burrell were both ejected in separate incidents, we tried to head to a restaurant in Hoboken (Arthur's Steak Tavern).  

We never made it there due to their closing at 11:00, but we got to learn about the backstreets of Newark.  Let me tell you, there were so many potholes on those roads, it looked like the streets of Dresden after World War II.  Yes, it was that bad.   We got back to the Turnpike and hit a Waffle House off exit 109A on I-95 in Maryland.

Today is the first round of the CAA Tournament.  The afternoon session starts at noon, the evening session at 6:00 PM.  I may not be able to tweet updates, but I will write about today's action later this evening.  Follow along on CAASports.com for all the action.

It's 2006 All Over Again - The 2011 CAA Tournament Preview

Before I start with my CAA Tournament preview, I just wanted to chime in about the firing of Georgia State's Rod Barnes.  Couldn't Georgia State AD Cheryl Levick wait until after the CAA Tournament was done to let Barnes go?  I mean we are talking about not even ten days.  Yes, the Panthers lost 79 games during Barnes' four years as coach.  But you are not going to start the hiring process until after the CAA Tournament anyway.    They could have let Barnes finish the season with his dignity.  Just sends the wrong message to everyone, especially any potential candidates for the job.

This is my sixth time writing a preview for the CAA Tournament.  It all started with what many CAA men's basketball fans think is the most glorious season for the conference - 2005-06.  Yes there was the at large George Mason Patriots going to the Final Four.  There was also UNC Wilmington winning the CAA Tournament defeating in the finals a Hofstra team that would be snubbed out of the NCAA Tournament six days later.  There was the combined 9-4 record of the CAA teams in the NCAA and NIT that postseason.  March 2006 was truly a special time for the CAA.

Five years later, here we are in March 2011.  Again there is talk of a multi-bid CAA contingent in the Big Dance, just like 2006.  Again George Mason is in the thick of the talk, along with Old Dominion as both teams sport RPIs in the 20's.  But in 2011, there are other similarities to 2006 that make it even more incredible.

2006

UNCW 15-3 , 25-8
George Mason 15-3, 27-8
Hofstra 14-4, 26-7
ODU 13-5, 24-10
Northeastern 12-6, 19-11
VCU 11-7, 19-10

2011

George Mason 16-2, 25-5
Old Dominion 14-4, 24-6
Hofstra 14-4, 20-10
VCU 12-6, 21-10
Drexel 11-7, 20-9
James Madison 10-8, 21-10

In 2006, you had four teams with 20 or more wins and two teams that just missed 20 wins. In 2011, six teams have 20 or more wins.

RPI 2006 - George Mason 15, Hofstra 30, UNCW 31, Old Dominion 52, VCU 80, Northeastern 88
RPI 2011 - George Mason 24, Old Dominion 27, Drexel 64, VCU 66, James Madison 74, Hofstra 81

In 2006, six teams were in the top 100 of the RPI ratings.  Likewise, six teams in 2011 are in the top 100 of the RPI ratings.

Wilmington Star News UNCW beat writer Brian Mull correctly noted in a reply tweet to me that similar to 2006, 2011's top players are senior laden.  In 2006 you had  Jose Juan Barea, Lamar Butler, Jai Lewis, Tony Skinn,  John Goldsberry, Vladimir Kuljanin, Alex Loughton, Isaiah Hunter, Aurimas Kieza, Adrian Uter and Nick George among others.  In 2010-11, you have Charles Jenkins, Cam Long, Frank Hassell, Ben Finney, Jamie Skeen, Joey Rodriguez, Denzel Bowles, Chad Tomko, Chaisson Allen and Jawan Carter among others.

So before I go into what's going to happen in the CAA Tournament, here's my two all CAA Teams, my All CAA Favorites and my choice for CAA First Team.


College Hardwood's All CAA Favorites

Charles Jenkins
Quinn McDowell
Frank Hassell
Jamie Skeen
Keith Rendleman

College Hardwood's CAA First Team

Charles Jenkins - Player of the Year
Cam Long
Frank Hassell
Chaisson Allen
Denzel Bowles

My favorites team and my All CAA first team have two similarities - Jenkins and Hassell.  Jenkins and Hassell are both in the top ten of John Hollinger's Player Efficiency Ratings.  Jenkins has improved every year he has been at Hofstra and is definitely NBA material.  Think about the fourth leading scorer in the country shooting 53 percent from the field.  Unreal.

Everyone I think by now knows how great Jenkins is, but Hassell also deserves a lot of love.  ODU is 14-0 when Hassell has a double double.  And Hassell is nearly averaging a double double, scoring 14 points and averaging 9.8 rebounds per game. As Brian Mull so aptly puts it, Hassell "drives their train".  The Hollinger efficiency ratings prove how important Hassell is to the Monarchs.

As for the rest of my favorites, well first, I love Quinn McDowell.  Kid can bury the three, drive to the basket and is just fundamentally sound.   Jamie Skeen impressed the hell out of me during the two Preseason NIT Tipoff games at MSG.  Sound inside, knows how to get to the free throw line and can even shoot the three.  Works real hard too.  And finally, I love the energy Keith Rendleman brings to the game. He can jump out of the building, has a nice touch around the basket and will only get better.

As for the First Team All CAA, Jenkins and Hassell are no brainers.   So is Denzel Bowles, who is such a load inside and has developed a nice touch from the outside.  Cam Long has improved a lot from last season.  He is very deserving of first team all CAA this season.  The last spot comes down to Allen, Skeen and Ryan Pearson.  Pearson's a junior so he has another season to get his first team All CAA.  Skeen tailed off at the end.  Allen scored 20 or more points in seven of his last ten games and he also averages six rebounds per game.  Give Allen the last spot.

Since the CAA expanded to twelve teams in the 2005-06 season, no team that hasn't had a first round bye has won the tournament.  In fact, in eight of the last nine tournaments, the team that was the number one seed has gone on to with the CAA Tournament.  In 2008, #1 VCU was upset by #5 William and Mary in the semifinals.

So based on that, I am going to discuss how the top teams in the CAA Tournament need to play to win the tournament.  And even though I think Drexel and JMU are long shots since they have to win four games in four days to win the tournament, since both teams have 20 wins and RPIs in the 60's and 70's, I will include them in as well.

George Mason - The Patriots win because on offense they are balanced as they have four players who average in double figures led by Long and Pearson.  But it has been better defense that has propelled the Patriots to their fifteen game winning streak.  If Mason gives up 69 or more points, they are 3-5.  When they give up less than 69 points - 22-0.  Mason will continue to roll if they have Luke Hancock, Andre Cornelius, Long and Pearson all average double figures and they play D as a whole.  Key Stat -  In five of their last seven games, Mason has held their opponents under 39 percent shooting.

Old Dominion - The Monarchs, the Ground and Pound of College Basketball, lead the nation in rebounding margin.  And a lot of that is due to their work on the offensive glass.  ODU leads the CAA in offensive rebounds with 475, averaging nearly 16 per game.  When they lose, it's because the rebounding margin isn't that great and the Monarchs are ninth in the CAA in FG percentage at 43 percent.  For ODU, it's just shoot well enough, clean up on the offensive glass, hold opponent under 60. Win. Key Stat - Again, when Hassell gets a double double, ODU is 14-0.

Hofstra - The Pride are one of the better offensive teams in the CAA, fourth in scoring offense, first in free throw percentage and third in assist to turnover ratio.  When they lose, it's due to their very weak rebounding and the inability to keep opponents off the offensive glass.  Hofstra is next to last in the CAA in defensive rebound percentage.   But their ability to win close games (9-3 in games decided by seven points or less) will be important for the tournament.  For the Pride to be successful - be balanced on offense, get to the line and keep the rebounding deficit reasonable.  Key Stat - When Hofstra has three or more players in double figures they are 18-1.

VCU - The Rams were in the hunt for an at large bid when they were first in the CAA at 10-1 and 18-5 overall.  But the Rams lost five of their last eight and in the three games they won, one was in overtime and the combined margin of victory in the other two games was a total of five points.  VCU is successful when they force turnovers as they are first in the CAA in steals, turnover margin and assists to turnover ratio.  VCU's game plan - shoot well from the outside, get Skeen involved and force the opponent to turn the ball over.  Make the game high scoring.  Key Stat - Rams are 12-1 when scoring more than 73 points in a game.

Drexel - The Dragons were 7-1 after they upset Louisville at the Yum Center.  Then they went 4-5 over their next nine games and were 3-4 in conference.  Drexel rallied to win 9 out of their last 12 to finish fifth.  They win due to defense, first in CAA in FG percentage defense, and their rebounding (ninth in the country).   They lose when they don't have enough defense and rebounding to overcome their next to last standing in the CAA in FG percentage.  Drexel wants to keep the game in the 60's at most, rebound and play defense.  Must stay out of foul trouble as well.  Key Stat - Seven players average more than 23 minutes.  Only one other player averages more than 5 minutes.

James Madison - The Dukes were the chic pick to finish in the top four of the CAA (hey, I had them finishing third).  On January 15, they were 15-3 overall and 5-1 in conference.  JMU went 6-7 the rest of the way and finished 10-8 in conference.  And what's strange is that they are in the top part of the CAA in most offensive categories and not really at the bottom of any defensive categories.  They just seem to find unique ways to lose games.  Dukes like a high tempo game with lots of points scored.  Madison 11-2 when they score 74 or more points in a game.  Key Stat - The Dukes have played 17 games decided by seven points or less (10-7 record).

Can other teams do well in the CAA Tournament?  Well, Delaware did give ODU fits and their two guards, Jawan Carter and Devon Saddler are very good.  Northeastern played very well the second half of the season and with Allen, Jonathan Lee and Joel Smith, they can score.  Interesting matchup there between the Huskies and the Blue Hens.  William and Mary beat James Madison on the Dukes' home court and have been very tough lately, so it won't be an easy game for the Dukes.   UNCW has the duo of Chad Tomko and Rendleman, so they could be a handful.   Georgia State likes low scoring games but the firing of Rod Barnes won't help.  And Towson, well, they had several offensive chances late against Drexel and could have had their first win in conference.

Of the bottom six teams, I think Delaware has the best chance to do damage.  They match up well with ODU for some reason, perhaps because their guards cause matchup problems for teams.

Now it's time for predicting the tournament.  At the beginning of the season, I predicted ODU to win the CAA Tournament.  They haven't disappointed with their second seed, their impressive non conference wins and of course they have Hassell.   There is of course George Mason, winners of fifteen straight, the Top 25 ranking and the #24 RPI.

Now if you know your CAA tournament history, the last two times the CAA had an at large, 2006 and 2007, the at large team did NOT make the CAA Finals.  In 2006, George Mason lost to Hofstra.  In 2007, Old Dominion lost to George Mason.   Both 2006 George Mason AND 2007 Old Dominion were #2 seeds.  And to make matters more interesting, in 2006, George Mason had to rally to force overtime  before beating Georgia State in the quarterfinals.  In 2007, Old Dominion barely held off Towson 58-55 in the CAA quarterfinals.

So that doesn't bode well for #2 seeded ODU.  And in fact, potentially staring the Monarchs in the face in the quarterfinals is #7 Delaware, who split with ODU during the regular season.  The Blue Hens won at Newark and barely lost to the Monarchs at the Ted.

So how do I think it goes?  Here's what I think happens;

First Round

UNC Wilmington defeats Georgia State (Tomko and Rendleman combine to beat a deflated Panthers team)
Drexel defeats Towson (but Dragons will struggle due to cold shooting)
Delaware defeats Northeastern (Blue Hens sweep Huskies on the season thanks to Saddler and Carter)
James Madison defeats William and Mary (in a very close game)

Quarterfinals

George Mason defeats UNC Wilmington (handily...too much balance by the Patriots)
VCU defeats Drexel (The Dragons again are cold from the field and the home Richmond crowd spurs the Rams to victory in a game where neither team breaks sixty)
ODU defeats Delaware (barely in the rubber match.  Hassell hits a late layup to give Monarchs the lead)
Hofstra defeats JMU   (Pride take the lead early and hold on barely as Jenkins goes for 32 points and 9 assists in another high scoring affair.)

Semifinals

George Mason defeats VCU as the Rams porous defense can't stop the Patriots from the field. 
Hoftra upsets ODU as the #2 at large jinx continues.  Hofstra rallies in the 2nd half as ODU goes cold from the field (similar to their losses to Drexel and VCU).  Monarchs though get an at large and go to the Sweet 16.

And that brings us to the finals.  C'mon, in a season that is so hauntingly familiar to 2006, where someone high up in the CAA administrative offices (Tom Yeager?) had the sense of humor to sit the Patriots' fans next to the Pride fans, you have to have Hofstra vs. George Mason in the CAA final.  It's the team that got snubbed from the dance but swept the Patriots in 2006 vs. the team that got one of the last at large bids and had the magical run in 2006.

So how will this play out?  Conventional wisdom would say George Mason will win based on their stunning 15 game winning streak.  However, being a history buff, let me throw this one out at you.  Until this season, George Mason was ranked in the Top 25 in the regular season (before the NCAA Tournament) only one other time.  Yup, 2006.  The team to knock George Mason out of the Top 25 in 2006.  Yup, the Hofstra Pride.  And why not, Hofstra is only one of two teams that beat George Mason in conference all season.

And a lot of the CAA Twitter feeds I saw for a week or so before VCU melted away their at large bid hopes had the hashtag #3BidsForCAA.   And as I stated in a tweet, the NCAA has the chance to right a wrong from 2006.  Three CAA teams in the tournament.  That's what it should have been in 2006.  The five year anniversary seems about the time to have this happen.

Hofstra upsets George Mason.   Hofstra, Mason and ODU all go to the dance.  You heard it here first.  And if I am wrong, like I have been with most of my CAA Tournament predictions, hey what else is new.

But history has a tendency to repeat itself.