Back in the Saddle Again - The 2011-12 Hofstra Men's Basketball Preview

Last week was the Hofstra Season Ticket Holder Scrimmage and Reception.  As I entered the Mack Center, my son Matthew and I headed to an open seat.  There I saw my old friend, Mr. Defiantly Dutch himself, Jerry Beach.   Jerry was already there watching the scrimmage with his much better half Michelle.  As I walked up to the Dutchman, I started singing "I'm back in the saddle again".  Yes, I am old school and thanks to my country music loving parents, I got to know the classic Gene Autry ditty.   Thus in my sixth year of writing this blog, it's the perfect theme for today's post.

So when Hofstra hosted Division II Queens College yesterday in an exhibition game, even though it didn't officially start the college basketball season, it was the start of the season to me.  And the best way to give a preview of the Pride for the 2011-12 season was to base it around the game vs. the Knights.

A season ago, Hofstra was centered around Charles Jenkins, their three time Haggerty Award and two time CAA Player of the Year guard.   Jenkins led the Pride to a 14-4 conference record and a 21-11 overall record.  Based on statistical analysis, Jenkins was probably the most important player to his team in the country.  Due to the NBA lockout, Jenkins was on hand to watch Hofstra's exhibition game and spent a good part being interviewed by the WRHU radio announce team.

As you would expect for an exhibition game, the stands were lightly filled, despite free admission.  Only a few rows of students filled the Lions Den behind the east basket.   Hofstra had their cheerleaders, dance team and the pep band there as well.  The dance team was in fine mid-season form.  The pep band was also in midseason form.  Unfortunately that meant, as usual, they didn't sound good at all.

As for Hofstra's starting lineup, seniors Mike Moore and Nathaniel Lester, along with junior transfer Steve Mejia, comprised the backcourt.  Junior David Imes and freshman Moussa Kone started in the frontcourt.  

Moore was the second leading scorer on the Pride, averaging nearly fifteen points per game and is one of the top free throw shooters in the CAA.  He is no longer the wingman for Jenkins, but now one of the tri-captains of the team and the main scoring threat in his senior season.  Coach Mo Cassara is counting on Moore to fill the leadership void and also partly makeup for the scoring lost by Jenkins' graduation.

Lester is a redshirt senior, returning from a quad injury that sidelined him for the entire 2010-11 season.  In the 2009-2010 season, he played the sixth man under former coach Tom Pecora, averaging eight points per game. Lester is also another one of the tri-captains for Cassara and he is being counted on to average double digits in scoring.

Mejia is the transfer point guard from Rhode Island who sat out last season.  In his sophomore season with the Rams, he averaged 18 minutes, 3.5 assists and only 1.2 turnovers per game.  He now has a chance to play thirty plus minutes with the Pride and Cassara is counting on additional scoring from Mejia as well..

Imes, the most improved player from last season, is looking to improve again this season.  He averaged 7.6 points per game and 6.8 rebounds per game.  Imes seem to struggle at times yesterday, but later in the game he found his rhythm as he scored two baskets in a row to keep the Pride up thirteen, 59-46.  Cassara will be counting on Imes to be a consistent inside scoring force.

Kone was a surprise starter for the Pride.  He is a 6 foot 7 freshman from the Bronx who has a nice lefthanded touch around the basket and has impressed during practices.  Kone is one of two new frontcourt players for the Pride, who need to sorely improve on their rebounding from a year ago.

The game started out very sluggish with Queens getting an early 5-0 lead.  The Knights actually still had a lead 14-13 with 10:40 left before the Pride took the lead for good.   It was two bench players who sparked the Pride over the final ten plus minutes of the first half.  Sophomore Shemiye McLendon, who often provided instant offense for the Pride off the bench last season, provided several points off the bench.  Also, JUCO transfer Bryant Crowder provided points as well as solid defensive work to propel Hofstra to a 33-22 lead.  In the second half, Crowder had a thunderous slam off an entry pass that gave the crowd their highlight of the game.

The halftime stats exemplified the Pride's probable strengths, weaknesses and improvements for the season.  Hofstra was 12 of 17 from two point range in the first half but 0 for 6 from beyond the arc.  Moore had 12 points in the first half, most coming from driving the lane.  The Pride held the Knights to 35.7 percent shooting in the first half.   Most of Queens' points came from Khalil McDonald, who scored nineteen points in the game.

The second half showed promise for Hofstra.  Kone and Crowder were able to get down the court pretty quickly.. It was alsio impressive to see the two big men play very fundamentally sound basketball on both ends of the court.   With sophomore Stephen Nwaukoni filling out the frontcourt rotation, the Pride actually have more depth up front than last season.  If this game was any indication, the rebounding looks to be much improved as Hofstra outrebounded Queens 40-26.

In the second half, Queens got no closer than ten points the rest of the way.  Hofstra was up by as many as nineteen, 67-48 before cruising to a 71-57 win over Queens.  Moore led all scorers with 20 points.  Lester added 13, Crowder 12 and Mejia 10.   The Pride shot 48 percent from the field and eight players played 13 or more minutes.  Senior Dwan McMillan, who impressed me during last week's scrimmage, sat due to an apparent injury.  Once he is healthy, he will fill out what seems to be a nine man rotation.

The game made it very apparent how Hofstra will have to play this season.  As shown by the scoring breakdown, it will be much more of a team effort to makeup for the loss of Jenkins on offense.  Against Queens, Hofstra made a concerted effort to drive the lane and work the ball inside.  Due to their height, Lester and Moore provide difficult defensive matchups for opponents. .It made sense, because based on a 3-15 performance from beyond the arc, the Pride may be lacking a consistent three point shooting threat.

On the defensive end, the Pride played with a lot of effort and Cassara was doing a lot of coaching with his players when they missed assignments or didn't have the correct positioning.   As noted earlier, Crowder and Kone seem to bring better athleticism and rebounding to Hofstra.  I was also impressed on how both of them played on the defensive end.  Also, having two 6 foot 5 guards in Moore and Lester will help in rebounding.

Finally, the key is Mejia.  Mejia had a very solid game with ten points and nine assists (though he had four turnovers).  He did a very good job driving the lane and finding the open man. Mejia also went to the free throw line nine times, though he needs to improve on his percentage, as he only he hit five of those attempts from the charity stripe.

Jenkins was obviously the main reason why Hofstra was so successful in conference.  But another important element was that Hofstra did an excellent job in ball possession and free throw shooting.  Hofstra led the CAA in assists to turnover ratio and free throw percentage and was third in turnover margin (VCU and George Mason were 1-2).  Hofstra needs to be as good in those categories again because the window of margin is now much less with Sir Charles gone.

The Pride get their first test against a very good LIU team this Friday, November 11.  The Blackbirds are the defending NEC champions who have six of their top eight players returning.   LIU's high scoring, uptempo game will be a serious challenge to Hofstra's defense.

Hofstra Pride - 21-11 last season, 14-4 CAA.  Lost in CAA Semifinals to ODU.  Lost at Evansville in first round of CBI.

Strengths - Veteran guard leadership in Moore, Lester and Mejia.

Improvements - More athletic big men.  Deeper nine man rotation (once McMillan is healthy).

Questions  - Scoring options to make up for the loss of Jenkins.  Consistent outside shooting threat.

Prediction  - Seventh in the CAA.

NBA Lockout Got You Down? How About Being A College Hoops Junkie?

With the lockout potentially canceling the entire season, NBA fans are looking for other avenues to fill their sports fix.  For those of you who want to see some quality hoops, it's time you joined the rest of us fans of the college hardwood (and I mean the sport, not my blog, though I certainly will gladly take more readers and followers on Twitter at gmoore21566).  Thus, for those of you pro basketball fans new to following college basketball, here are some suggestions for you.

1. Pick a Team to Follow - I certainly have no problems with people who love college basketball in general.  And of course, I will drop whatever I am doing if there is a good game to watch.  But what makes college basketball more fun is if you pick a team/college to root for whether it's live or on TV.  Now for those of you living in many NBA cities, you often have a lot of choices (especially for us in New York, more on that in a second), but some NBA cities don't have that many college basketball team alternatives (hello, Orlando!).
2. When Picking a Team, May I Suggest a Mid Major Team  - Now for many pro basketball fans in big market cities, many Lakers' and Clippers' fans likely will trend to USC or UCLA , while Knicks' fans will likely tend to veer towards St John's and Celtics' fans may go down the road to Chestnut Hill for Boston College.  However,  Bobcats' fans, you don't have to venture far to support the 49ers of Charlotte or Davidson, or even for those Bobcats' fans on the coast, UNCW over the more traditional staples of UNC and Duke.
   
   But if you are the supporter of a NBA team and have no particular allegiance to any big conference schools, there are plenty of mid major teams in your local area that you can support.   Pacers fans have Butler right down the road, or IUPUI, which is not the former mascot of the Expos, but the home of Michael Hadley's Jaguars of the Summit Conference.  Sixers' fans have plenty of choices besides Villanova.  There is Saint Joseph's, UPenn, Temple and my pick to win the CAA this season, Drexel.
   
   Nets' and Knicks fans have lots of mid major teams to choose from besides the usual duo of St John's and Seton Hall.   First, you have potentially the best mid major team in the country in New Rochelle in the Iona Gaels.   For those Nets' fans craving Brooklyn basketball, there are the entertaining Blackbirds of LIU- Brooklyn, the defending NEC champions who love to put the ball in the hoop.  If you are on Staten Island, the Hurley brothers are quickly turning Wagner into a contender. In the Bronx, there is Fordham and the underrated Rose Hill gym.  And out here on Long Island, you have two choices; Hofstra and Stony Brook, two programs definitely on the rise.
   
   And you have lots of other mid majors in NBA cities.  Detroit could be the favorite for the Horizon in Pistons' land, but UW Milwaukee might have a say about the Horizon in Bucks' land.  Jazz fans may finally have a chance to see the gem of a team Stu Morrill always has at Utah State.  Cavaliers' fans probably are glad to see the NBA lockout and now they can enjoy another good Xavier team this season.
3. Go to Live College Basketball Games -  Yes, watching college basketball on TV is fun. But it seriously pales in comparison to live games.  Live games are so much more fun.  You get a better appreciation for the skill level of talented college basketball players.   You have lively,often creative student sections and animated coaches like Bruiser Flint that will entertain you for two non stop hours.  It's also one of the most inexpensive outings you can find, plus some tasty food selections (see further down for Delaware BBQ).  Thus I recommend...
4. Bring a Friend or Better Yet, Bring Your Children to a Live Game -  There is never a better outing to hang out with a good friend or with your children than a college basketball game.  For almost ten years now, I have had Hofstra season tickets with my good friends Mal and Tony.  It's quality time with two longtime friends.  You can catch up on each other's lives, comment on the play of the game and throw in a good natured barbing of quality CAA officiating.
   
   But better yet, if you have a young son into sports, like my older son Matthew, college basketball is a very exciting sport to a child.  It also helps if your son's first game of the season with you is the game where Charles Jenkins ends up on SportsCenter....on your birthday no less.  There is no better bonding with father and son than a sporting event.  And a two hour college basketball game is the perfect sport for young children.  Matthew is now hooked on college basketball.
5. Take a Road Trip to See a Game  - One of my favorite things the past several years is taking a road trip.  Whether it was a pre-season tournament in Charleston, South Carolina, or a weekend trip to Atlantic City, then Philly for some good food and a Drexel-Hofstra Basketball game with Bruiser Flint at his foot stomping finest, a jaunt down to Newark for some bball and barbecue, or a long road trip to Dayton for a BracketBuster game and a terrific national museum, college basketball road trips with a good friend in support of your team are memories that you will treasure for years to come. But for the best college basketball road trip...
6. Go to a College Basketball Conference Tournament - Sans one year due to my younger son's surgery, I have been going to the CAA Tournament since the 2002-03 season.  Especially since 2005-06 when the Colonial became twelve teams, there is nothing better than seeing ten games in three days (alas, I have never been able to stay for the CAA Championship game).  I have also been to several Big East Conference Tournament games.
   
   There is nothing like a conference tournament live. The games are incredibly exciting, the atmosphere is often raucous and the level of play is tremendous.   I can't even begin to tell you the history I have seen at the Richmond Coliseum and MSG over the years.  You can not truly call yourself a college basketball fan if you have not gone to a conference tournament.
   
   And there are so many conference tournaments to choose from if you are a fan.  Especially for those in the Northeast/Atlantic in 2012, you have the MAAC Tournament in Springfield, Massachusetts, the CAA in Richmond, the Atlantic 10 in Atlantic City and yes of course, the Big East Tournament at the Garden.  You can't go wrong by attending any of those tournaments.
7. Go to a Mid Major Conference Tournament Championship Game -  Now what I mean by this is that several mid major conferences have their tournament championship game at the highest remaining seed's home court.   The America East, the Patriot League, the NEC and the Horizon are several conferences that have this in effect.
   
   I have been fortunate to see two of these games.  In 2001, I saw Hofstra defeat Delaware in the Mack Center in Hempstead for the America East Championship (in what would also be the swan song for both teams in the America East).  And this year, I was fortunate to see LIU win at home over Robert Morris to win the NEC Championship.   Talk about an incredibly amazing atmosphere in front of sold out, mostly partisan crowds.  And of course, you have fans storming the court at the end of the game.  Now that's fun.  But if you really want an event to remember...
8. Go to a NCAA Tournament Regional - In 2008, my friends Mal, Tony and I went to Raleigh for the first round regional.  It was the experience of a lifetime.  This was of course where Stephen Curry became a national star for his performances vs. Gonzaga and Georgetown.  You also had North Carolina basically playing home games as well in the same regional.  Talk about raucous. When the Wildcats made their historic comeback vs. the Hoyas, the place was rocking.   A NCAA Regional is definitely something a fan should see for themselves.

Now you have eight reasons to become a college basketball junkie. You can start by looking at various team's schedules.   The best place to go for that is Basketball State and click on Schools.  There you will find "Schedule/Results" on the left hand side.  And if you really want your fill of hoops, like me, you can plan out an entire year's schedule around several teams (that's my assignment for this weekend).

And if you follow my advice and pick a mid major team to follow, you can share your experiences by tweeting them.  You would be surprised on how few tweeters there are of mid major teams or of the CAA in general.  By tweeting some of the action, you will gain followers, trust me on this.

So NBA fans, do not despair.  You can get your fill of hoops by joining us in the world of the College Hardwood.  And yes, this time, that was a plug.

Miscellaneous Notes and Thoughts

I gave my RSVP for the Hofstra Men's Basketball Season Ticket Holder Practice and Reception on October 27th.   Can't wait for my first taste of college basketball season.  Last year's Hofstra Fanfest gave me a good first look at a much improved David Imes.  Looking forward to see who will surprise me in my first look at Hofstra for the 2011-12 season.

Today, the ESPN/USA Today Preseason Coaches Poll was announced.  North Carolina was voted the #1 team in the poll with 30 out of 31 first place votes.  Kentucky was ranked second.  If you are looking for a  mid major team in the poll, well depending on how you view Xavier and Gonzaga as mid majors, the Musketeers were picked 15th and the Zags were picked 23rd.

What I found most humorous was that the top rated CAA team in the Coaches Poll was George Mason who received 12 votes while Drexel received only 2 votes.  Anyone with significant knowledge of the CAA (Mike Litos, Brian Mull, John Templon, hell even dumb old me) has picked Drexel to finish first.  This is due to the fact that Drexel returns four starters, while Mason has lost three starters; Cam Long to graduation, Luke Hancock transferring to Louisville and Andre Cornelius due to suspension.  Goes to show you how much the Preseason Coaches Poll is really worth in the grand scheme of things .

For a while, I was wondering what was going to occur first, my younger son Jonathan's fourth birthday (November 17) or the NCAA's ruling on granting Momo Jones a waiver to play for Iona this season.  Well, it finally happened today, as the NCAA granted Jones a waiver to play for the Gaels this season.  Needless to say this makes the Gaels the prohibitive favorite in the MAAC.  But more importantly, the Gaels with Jones, Michael Glover and Scott Machado could possibly be one of the best mid major teams in the country.   Better get your tickets now for games at the Hynes Center.  I see lots of sellouts up in New Rochelle this season.  By the way, circle November 28th on your calendar.  Iona is home vs. LIU in what promises to be a very high scoring game.

I know I didn't talk about this in my CAA preview, but if you held a gun to my head, my picks for All First Team CAA this season would be Bradford Burgess (VCU), Quinn McDowell (W&M), Samme Givens (Drexel), Kent Bazemore (ODU)  and Ryan Pearson (George Mason).   If Bazemore's foot doesn't heal properly, then pick one from the following; Devon Saddler (Delaware), Mike Moore (Hofstra) and Chris Fouch (Drexel).  

By the way, I am very upset at the CAA schedule makers this season.  How dare they have Hofstra playing at Delaware on a weeknight?!  I need my fill of Blue Hen Barbecue!!  I guess I will have to go to a different Delaware Saturday home game.  I am targeting January 14 when they host VCU.  VCU and barbecue.  That rhymes!

Speaking of Hofstra, there is a lovely road trip I plan to take Thanksgiving weekend up to Rhode Island to see the Pride play in the Legends Classic along with Rhode Island, Cleveland State and Boston University, three teams who also made the postseason last season.   It will be my first ever road trip alone with my six year old son, Matthew, the college basketball maven.  Father and son bonding while watching college basketball in Rhode Island.   Should be memorable.

Three weeks from tomorrow is Hofstra's first home game vs. LIU.   It's just around the corner.  Thank god!

The 2011-12 CAA Preview - What Will the Colonial Do for an Encore?

The 2010-11 Colonial Men's basketball season will go down as the most historic in conference history.  Three teams in the NCAA Tournament, its second team ever in the Final Four, the first team ever to go from First Four to Final Four and for the third year in a row, a CAA player taken in the NBA Draft.  It was an absolute pleasure seeing the seeds sown throughout the season and being at the CAA Tournament for the eighth time in the last nine years.  The CAA was truly "Fun for the crowd" last season.

So what's in store for the CAA in 2011-12?  Well, the top four teams lost significant starters from a year ago either due to graduation or transfer (or, sadly, were arrested).   It's going to be asking a lot for the Colonial to have a multiple bid NCAA Tournament season, let alone another three team bid season. 

Teams in Predicted Order of Finish

The Top Five (And Yes, I Know Full Well Only Four Can Get a First Round Bye in the CAA Tournament)

1) Drexel - Could this be finally the year that the Dragons break "The Curse of the America East"?   For those of you who don't know, no former America East team has won the CAA Tournament since the core four - Delaware, Drexel, Towson and Hofstra joined in the 2001-02 season (Northeastern joined in 2005-06).  Drexel should be the team to beat since it returns four starters from the fifth place conference team in 2011-12.

The Good - The Dragons return guards Chris Fouch, Frantz Massenat and Derrick Thomas.  Fouch is Drexel's top scorer and by far, their best outside shooter.  Thomas will probably be the third starting guard and should increase his productivity.  The Dragons' strength though lies in their frontcourt.  Double double machine Samme Givens, up and comer sophomore Dartaye Ruffin and mammoth Daryl McCoy provide scoring, but more importantly to Coach Bruiser Flint, great rebounding.  Drexel was sixth in the country in rebounds per game.   The Dragons' physical style of play tends to lead to low scoring games, often ugly.  But also often effective, as Louisville found out the hard way at the Yum Center, as Drexel upset the Cardinals early in the regular season.

The Bad - Drexel had little depth last year, playing a seven man rotation. Gerald Colds was the only player who graduated out of that seven man rotation.  However, the Dragons need to hope that Bruiser's Flint recruiting class of five freshmen step up to add a few players to the rotation.   If Drexel wants to go from fifth to first in the rugged CAA, increased depth is a must.   Another shooter besides Fouch would also be a big help.  Freshman Damion Lee could be that guy.

The Key Player -  Dartaye Ruffin - If Ruffin continues to blossom and becomes a starter, the Dragons will be really tough to beat. 

The Likely Outcome - Of all the teams in the conference, the Dragons have the most experienced and most talented players returning.  Ruffin is my sleeper player of the year in the CAA.  I think he is going to be terrific.  Add him with Fouch and Givens, and I believe Drexel finally ends the "Curse of the America East".  If they make the NCAA Tournament, the Dragons can definitely win a first round game. It would be great to see Bruiser at his foot stomping finest on national TV in March.

2) VCU - The Rams incredible run in the NCAA Tournament was due in large part to four players - Joey Rodriguez, Jamie Skeen, Brandon Rozzell and Ed Nixon.   All of those players are gone.  But "Big Time" Bradford Burgess and some talented players who were very important reserves a year ago are now likely starters.  The Rams went ten deep in their rotation last year and five of those players, including Burgess return.  Also, Shaka Smart is a terrific recruiter and has added some talented new freshmen.  

The Good - Burgess is now the man at VCU and he can certainly handle the leading role.  But he is not alone.  Darius Theus will take over the point after backing up Rodriguez, Rob Brandenberg will take over for Rozzell, while Juvonte Reddic and D.J Haley will take over the frontcourt roles.  The question will be who becomes the second and third scorers from this group.  Look to Brandenberg to become the sidekick to Burgess.   Also look for Teddy Okereafor, one of the top 50 incoming freshman point guards in the country, to become one of the key reserves.

The Bad - After Burgess and Brandenberg, scoring could be an issue for VCU.  The only experienced true forwards that are back are Reddic and D.J. Haley, though Burgess certainly can play forward.  The Rams have six freshmen in the mix.  Who pans out and provides important minutes remains to be seen.

The Key Player - Juvonte Reddic.  With the lack of depth in experienced forwards, Reddic will need to step up in his sophomore season.

The Likely Outcome - Coach Smart is a terrific motivator and the fact that he went ten deep with his rotation last season bodes well for the reserves who are now starters.  The Rams, with their aggressive defensive style of play, will be in the hunt in the CAA all season.  It may take them a little while to get used to all the new starters though, so they may struggle during the non conference schedule.  But look out in March.

3) George Mason - After the NCAA Tournament ended, the Patriots were originally my pick to finish first in the CAA this season.  Despite All First Team CAA Cam Long and sixth man Isaiah Tate graduating, Mason Nation was returning four other starters.   But suddenly, the roof on the Patriot Center caved in.  Jim Larranaga left Fairfax for the fun and the sun in Miami, Florida.  Then Luke Hancock transferred to Louisville.  Finally, Andre Cornelius was arrested on the charge of credit card fraud and suspended indefinitely.   Cornelius may never return to the team.  What was a first place team with four starters returning is maybe now a third place team with only two starters returning.

The Good - The Patriots have one of the best frontcourt tandems in seniors Ryan Pearson and Mike Morrison.  Pearson is a handful in the post with his unorthodox left handed post moves and can shoot the occasional three.   Mason does have some talented guards returning in sophomore Vertrail Vaughns and redshirt sophmore Sherrod Wright to fill the void.  Former Georgia Tech coach Paul Hewitt replaces Larranaga, so the Patriots will have a new scheme on offense. Highly touted freshman forward Erik Copes will provide defensive intensity off the bench.

The Bad - With Long and Tate graduated, Hancock's transfer, Cornelius' status up in the air, and reserve forward Johnny Williams likely redshirted due to a shoulder injury, depth is now suddenly a problem for the Patriots. Who fills the fifth and final starting spot for Mason?  How deep is Hewitt's rotation?  How good of a coach is Hewitt?

The Key Player - Sherrod Wright.  Wright showed some major flashes as a freshman before he was redshirted last season due to injury.   How he progresses early on in the non conference schedule may determine how successful Mason will be this season. Wright will need to fill a huge void at scoring guard.

The Outcome -  Something tells me that this is going one of two ways.  Either Hewitt rallies the troops, Vaughns and Wright prove to be more than adequate replacements for Long and Cornelius and Pearson is the big horse that rides Mason to at least the CAA Semifinals.  Or, due to lack of experienced depth, the likely loss of Cornelius and Vaughns and Wright not filling the void, this team will implode in a very big way and lose in the CAA Quarterfinals or even earlier. Your guess is as good as mine.

4) William and Mary - This is my sleeper team.  I love their Ghidorah guard trio (look up Ghidorah on Youtube) of Julian Boatner, Brandon Britt and my pick for CAA player of the Year, Quinn McDowell.  Plus they have one of the best coaches in the CAA in Tony Shaver.  No one gets more out of his players than Shaver.

The Good - As noted, McDowell is an elite player.  What he did vs. James Madison in the first round of the CAA Tournament was downright dominant.  He can shoot, he can drive and at 6 foot 7, he is a really tough matchup.  Boatner and Britt are only going to get better. Boatner scored in double figures in eight of his last twelve games last season and is deadly from three (37 of 79 from beyond the arc in those last twelve games).  Add shooting guard freshman Marcus Thornton, who is getting a lot of early publicity, and the Tribe frontcourt is dynamite.

The Bad - OK, who starts in the frontcourt?  Their best big man, Marcus Kitts, graduated.  Thus frontcourt minutes will be divided between Tim Rusthoven, Kyle Gaillard and JohnMark Ludwick.  At least one of those three needs to become a legitimate post scorer.  Tom Schalk, an incoming freshman who has the ability to hit the three as well as score inside, seems to fit well in Shaver's scheme.  He was highly recruited (Wichita State, Northern Iowa and Cornell also recruited him) and may see a lot of minutes

The Key Player - Julian Boatner.  Boatner was such a weapon for William and Mary in the second half of the season.  If he continues to progress in his three point shooting, it forces teams not to double team McDowell, who is a matchup nightmare (ask James Madison).

The Likely Outcome - With so many teams having lost a lot of experienced talent, the playing field has leveled for the Tribe.  With such a good coach as Shaver, McDowell being such a terrific scorer and especially William and Mary being the Achilles heel for Drexel last season, I could see the Tribe finally breaking their NCAA curse this season.  The only thing that could keep them from it is a middling frontcourt.  Someone in that group of forwards needs to step up.

5) James Madison - There is a reason why I call the Dukes "The Enigma of the CAA".  They have so much talent and they can be an absolute handful, but then they disappoint in a huge way.  Take their first round CAA Tournament game against William and Mary.   I never saw a team with such talent come out so flat, and stay flat for an entire game.  Now Denzel Bowles has graduated and Coach Matt Brady has to try to re-energize his group.

The Good -  The Dukes have four returning starters (Devon Moore, Humpty Hitchens, Julius Wells and Rayshawn Goins, plus talented sixth man Andrey Semenov.  Moore has always been a personal favorite of mine (and not because we share the same last name). Returning from injury, Moore was the second leading scorer on the team and increased his assists to turnovers ratio significantly from his first season (4.2 assists per game vs. 2.3 turnovers per game).  Wells, Hitchens, Goins and Semenov should all average around double figures in scoring, which should give Madison very good balance. A.J Davis, a transfer from Wyoming, is getting a lot of love this preseason.

The Bad - Who replaces Bowles as JMU's size up front?  Goins is wide, but not very tall.  Former Hokie Gene Swindle, part of the Matt Brady Transfer machine, fits the bill at six foot eleven. He was highly recruited by several teams besides Virginia Tech (South Florida, Nebraska and Penn State), but played in only one game before transferring.  Freshman Enoch Hood is another potential solution.

The Key Player - Julius Wells.  This kid has a boatload of talent, but he is the E in the Enigma that is James Madison.  His scoring average dropped by nearly six points per game from the season before, though his FG percentage did improve. Wells can shoot 7 of 14 in one game (23 point effort vs Hofstra), then go 2 of 9 in the next game (13 points vs. Drexel).  Wells needs to be more consistent if Madison wants to finish in the top four of the conference.

The Likely Outcome - Flip a coin.  Then flip it again.  Then one more time.  And you still won't have the answer.  A lot of it depends on whether the Dukes play as a team, or everyone on their own tries to replace Bowles.  Also, Moore is out for the fall semester due to academic eligibility  issues.  Can Swindle and Hood provide size?  Does Davis live up to the hype?  Can Julius Wells be consistent night in and night out?  Tune in to "As the Dukes Turn" to find out.

Next Four, Or, Four Teams You Can Throw Into A Blender And See Which Order They Come Out In

6) Old Dominion - I love Blaine Taylor.  I really do.  But, I am sorry, I miss the Lou Brown/Evil Henchman Cowboy look.  Please bring back the stache. Now.  Taylor wishes he could bring back his four starters from his terrific team of last season.  But Frank Hassell, Ben Finney, Keyon Carter and Darius James all graduated.  That leaves Kent Bazemore as his lone starter.  The problem is that Bazemore is out until at least December as he recovers from foot surgery.  Ruh Roh.

The Good - When healthy, Bazemore is truly one of the elite players in the CAA.  Not only can he score, but he is terrific on defense.  Just a very talented player.   A lot of Taylor's key reserves are back.  Chris Cooper and Nick Wright are the returning big men for the Monarchs, while Trian Iliadis and Marquel DeLancey are the returning guards.   All four played significant minutes last season and are now likely starters.  There is no better game manager though than Blaine Taylor  His team will always play hard and especially physical.

The Bad -  For the first time I can ever remember, ODU has rotation depth concerns.  Clemson transfer Dante Hill and Richard Ross will eligible in the spring semester, so Blaine's boys will be without three vital players for a good part of the beginning of the season.  Taylor has to hope freshmen like Jason Pimentel step up.

The Key Player - Chris Cooper.  I talked about this in last season's CAA preview. Taylor's offense ALWAYS has a major inside scoring threat.  See Alex Loughton, Valdus Vasylius, Gerald Lee and last season, Frank Hassell.   Cooper has to step up and claim that as his own.  If Taylor doesn't have a frontcourt scoring option, it could be a long season for the Monarchs.

The Likely Outcome - This team will struggle in non-conference to start the season.  It would be expecting a lot for ODU to be successful without three significant contributors and just nine scholarship players for the fall semester.  But once Bazemore is back in December and Hill and Ross return in January, I look for this team to be much better.  How much better depends on Cooper becoming a legitimate post scoring presence.  If Blaine can coax 20+ wins out of this team, it will be his best coaching effort ever.  And that's saying something about someone who has four NCAA Tournament appearances and six 20+ win seasons since 2005.

7) Hofstra - I have seen a couple of pre-season previews that have Hofstra tenth and eighth.  Both are too low.  Yes, Hofstra lost the two time CAA player of the year in Charles Jenkins, along with two other starters - guard Brad Kelleher and center Greg Washington.  However, the Pride got most of  of their minutes from their non seniors (and of that group, only reserve guard Yves Jules transferred). Highly regarded Rhode Island transfer Steve Mejia replaces Kelleher as the starting point guard.  Nathaniel Lester returns from being out for the 2010-11 season due to injury and will fill Jenkins spot.

The Good - Second leading scorer Mike Moore (14.9 points per game) returns as does junior forward David Imes.  A starting four of  Moore, Lester, Mejia and Imes is not bad at all.   The junior Mejia, who Coach Mo Cassara loves, is a talented point guard who averaged 3.5 assists and 1.3 turnovers in 18 minutes per game as a sophomore for the Rams.  Lester averaged 8.0 points per game off the bench as a junior.

The Bad - Can JUCO transfer Bryant Crowder provide quality minutes as the likely starter at forward/center for Hofstra?  After Crowder and Imes, the only other experienced forward is sophomore Stephen Nwaukoni.   It remains to be seen how freshmen Moussa Kone and Jordan Allen will contribute.  Also, will Moore, Lester and Imes make up for most of the scoring lost by the graduation of Jenkins?

The Key Player - Steve Mejia.   Yes, Jenkins was the main reason why Hofstra was so successful in conference last season.  He definitely improved his already excellent play as a senior.  But another important factor was better ball possession.  The Pride were one of the top teams in the CAA in assists to turnover ratio and turnover margin last season.  It starts with a good point guard and Mejia must live up to the hype.

The Likely Outcome -  Contrary to what some think, the Pride will do better than expected this season.  They have depth at guard as Dwan McMillan and Shemiye McLendon, both who saw significant minutes last season, will be coming off the bench.  Depth wise, the frontcourt is suspect.  Then again, it was last year as well.  If Mejia is as good as advertised, Crowder provides a presence in the middle and Moore, Lester and Imes all step up, which I think they will, this team will surprise.  For now, I am putting them here, but I think they might finish higher.

8) Delaware - This is another team that lost a good chunk of their rotation.  Leading scorer Jawan Carter and third leading scorer Alphonso Dawson are gone, plus two key bench contributors Brian Johnson and D.J. Boney.   However, CAA Rookie of the Year Devon Saddler returns as does the dominant inside presence of Jamelle Hagins.  The Blue Hens have talent and played ODU quite tough in the quarterfinals of the CAA Tournament before losing.

The Good - Saddler looks to be a star and Hagins is not far behind.  Josh Brinkley, Kelvin McNeil and Hakim McCullar round out a strong frontcourt.   Monte Ross brought in a group of five talented freshmen in Marvin King-Davis, Larry Savage, Khalid Lewis, Jarvis Threatt and Kyle Anderson.  Brinkley is now healthy and looks to resume his impressive play from January.

The Bad - The Blue Hens only experienced guard is Saddler.  So Lewis and Threatt will be thrown to the wolves early.   With the losses of Carter and Dawson, Hagins and Brinkley now have to step up and become consistent scoring options every night. We have been waiting for the Blue Hens' play to finally match their talent.  Is this the season?


The Key Player - Josh Brinkley.  Saddler and Hagins look to be a dynamic duo.  Brinkley needs to stay healthy and give them a third option.  The talent is there, ask George Mason and James Madison about Brinkley from last season.

The Likely Outcome -  Not sure if this team is as good as people think.  It's still a very young team and it now has to make up for the loss of four significant guards.  Saddler is terrific and the front court could be the second strongest in the CAA, outside of Drexel's front line.  But the rest of the guards are young and inexperienced.  This could be a team that suffers through a lot of sloppy play early on in the season.  Another team that will be better in February than it will be in November and December.  I think this team is a year away from being really good.

9) Northeastern -  The Huskies lost star guard Chaisson Allen and reserve forward Vinny Lima to graduation.  Talented freshman guard Alex Harris transferred to Cal State Fullerton.  However they return most of their main contributors from last season.   The starting five looks to be Joel Smith, Jonathan Lee, Alwayne Bigby, Ryan Pierson and Kauri Black.

The Good - Joel Smith and Jonathan Lee make a deadly combo from the outside.  Lee shot 47 percent from the beyond the arc while Smith was 42.5 percent from three. Black scored in double figures in four of his last eight games. Bigby and Pierson are talented frontcourt players who should get better.

The Bad - The Huskies defense was swiss cheese for a lot of last season.  The frontcourt did a very bad job in rebounding as they ranked 338th in the country in rebounds (that's pretty bad).  After the likely starting five, the Huskies have no experience on the bench.  Coach Billy Coen has brought in four freshmen, the best being forwards Quincy Ford and Reggie Spencer.

The Key Player - Ryan Pierson.  Pierson was a highly thought of recruit when he came in last season.  He showed flashes of it at times during the season.  Now is the time where he shows improvement on the defensive end. 3.7 rebounds per game will not cut it this season against the likes of Drexel, ODU and Delaware.

The Likely Outcome - The Huskies will be competitive in a lot of ball games due to Lee and Smith.  But Black, Pierson and Bigby have to give them other options and more importantly better defense in the frontcourt.  How it all works out, well it remains to be seen.

The Final Three Teams or Some Teams Have To Finish At the Bottom of The Conference

10) UNCW - The Seahawks lost their best player, Chad Tomko due to graduation.  The Wilmington Tasmanian Devil was Mr. Everything - first in scoring, first in assists and second in rebounding.  UNCW also lost fourth leading scorer Ahmad Grant and reserve Darryl Felder to graduation.   However, second leading scorer Keith Rendleman, another Moore favorite, returns along with eight talented freshmen.

The Good - Rendleman is on the verge of being a star. He can jump out of the gym, brings endless amounts of energy and is a handful underneath.  Trevor DeLoach, Tanner Milson, Donte Morales and Matt Wilson all return as well.  The key is the highly recruited freshmen class.  Based on Brian Mull's always insightful nuggets, Cedrick Williams has been the most impressive of the freshmen so far during workouts. Luke Hager was the most highly thought of recruit.  The Seahawks won't lack for size anymore. Hager and Williams are among the four freshmen who are 6 foot 7 or bigger to go along with Rendleman and the seven footer Wilson.

The Bad - Well, eight freshmen means eight freshmen.  In other words, this is a very young team and it's going to take time to mesh.  Coach Buzz Peterson will have to find a couple of scorers in his highly recruited group to go with Rendleman.  Who replaces Tomko as point guard?

The Key Player - Keith Rendleman.  With Tomko gone, this is his opportunity to step forward and become an All CAA caliber player.  Down the stretch last season, Rendleman scored in double figures in seven of his last eight games, along with grabbing at least eight rebounds in half those games.  He has the ability to average a double double on the season. Now is the time to do it.

The Likely Outcome - Another team that will be much better in February than in November.  It's going to take a good part of the season for this team to gel.  But if all reports are correct about this Great Eight group of freshman, this team will be a tough out come tournament time.  And a year from now, this will be an upper echelon team.  Just be patient Seahawks fans.

11) Georgia State - Ron Hunter left the friendly confines of IUPUI for the farthest most southern outpost in the CAA.  Since joining the CAA in the 2005-06 season, the Panthers have had only one season where they won more than six regular season games in conference (2008-09, the Panthers were 8-10).  Rod Barnes and his band of JUCOs could not turn around Georgia State's fortunes.  Now it's Hunter's turn to try to repeat his success at IUPUI.

The Good - Well at least Hunter was able to bring in his highly recruited son, R.J. But that's for next season.  But Hunter brought in for this season Tony Kimbro Jr., one of the top shooting guard recruits in the country.  The Panthers four leading scorers, Eric Buckner, Brandon McGee, Jihad Ali and Josh Micheaux all return.

The Bad - None of the leading scorers averaged in double figures last season.  Simply put, you can't win, if you can't score.  And you can't score, if you can't hit free throws.  Of the top five returning scorers, the highest free throw percentage was 62.9 percent (James Fields).

The Key Player - Tony Kimbro Jr.  It's asking a hell of a lot for a freshman to take the reins early. But considering there are not many scoring options, Hunter may give Kimbro Jr the opportunity to become the main scoring option for Georgia State.

The Likely Outcome - Hunter's team will play hard and they will be tough on the defensive end. Kimbro is a legitimate talent and my pick for CAA Rookie of the Year.  But unless Buckner steps up and this team learns to hit free throws, scoring will still be a struggle for the Panthers.  As I said earlier, you can't win, if you can't score.  Hunter needs a couple of seasons to bring his own talent in.  Give him two years and I think the Panthers will be on the right track.

12) Towson - New coach Pat Skerry takes over for what's left of the Tigers after Pat Kennedy decimated the program.  Towson went 0 for the season in 2011-12.  So things would have to be looking up, right?  Well, the Tigers' two leading scorers from last season, Isaiah Philmore and Braxton Dupree have transferred.  Two other Tigers' starters, Josh Brown and Brian Morris graduated.  However, Towson still has RaShawn Polk and welcome back Robert Nwankwo, who sat out last season due to academic issues.

The Good -  Polk is a solid scorer and a legitimate threat from three.  In 2009-10, Nwankwo averaged about 10 points and 9 rebounds per game and had eight double doubles.  He could average a double double this season.  Not bad for someone who was a walk-on for the Tigers.  Deon Jones is a top recruit who can help immediately.

The Bad - Well, Skerry has to replace four starters.  Getting Nwankwo back helps.  But with only two other players who saw any playing time returning (Polk and Enrique Gumbs), Skerry has to rely on six freshmen.

The Key Player - Robert Nwankwo.  If he can average a double double per night, then the Tigers will at least have a legitimate threat inside.

The Likely Outcome - It's a shame Philmore and Dupree didn't stick around.  They would have been a part of a terrific foursome.  The six freshmen will see significant time and they can't be any worse than last year's team that had Philmore and Dupree.  Or can they?  Skerry already has four top recruits coming in next season, so things will get much better.  It just won't be getting much better this season.

So there you have it.  Another season.  Another CAA preview.  In less than a month, the season starts.

Can't Wait!

BracketBusters Make a Difference for Mid Major Teams

Last week, ESPN announced the pool of 142 teams for the 2012 BracketBusters.  It's the largest pool of teams in the history of the series that started in 2006.   Whether you like the concept or not, the BracketBusters series has helped mid major teams make a significant impact in the NCAA Tournament the past six years.

You can make a significant case that if it wasn't for the BracketBusters, neither George Mason in 2006 or VCU in 2011 would have made the NCAA Tournament and thus not make their Final Four runs.  It was those BracketBuster national TV spotlight games, George Mason winning at Wichita State and VCU also winning at Wichita State, that gave both teams signature non conference road wins that the NCAA Tournament committee really likes to see.

Furthermore, you could also make a case that the BracketBusters have helped in seeding mid major teams in the NCAA Tournament.  I truly believe that Davidson's road win at Winthrop in 2008 helped get them a #10 seed in the NCAA Tournament, which was quite high for a mid major conference champion.  Yes, the Wildcats had a tough non conference schedule in 2007-08, but they hadn't won any of their marquee non conference games until they won at Winthrop.  The win at Winthrop had some clout, because in the 2007 NCAA Tournament, the Eagles stunned Notre Dame in the first round and they would again make the NCAA Tournament in 2008.  Of course, we all know what happened with Davidson in 2008.  In fact, some of us were fortunate to be there to see that regional in Raleigh.

I think the BracketBusters also played a part in other seedings as well.  I don't think George Mason gets a #8 seed in the 2011 NCAA Tournament without their road win at Northern Iowa.  The Patriots would eventually knock off Villanova in the first round.  #15 Southern Illinois' nationally televised 68-64 road win over #12 Butler in 2007, broke the Bulldogs' 22 game home winning streak.  It also was the Salukis' first road win over a ranked opponent in over thirty years. It helped give Southern Illinois a #4 seed, which they used to propel themselves to a Sweet 16 run.  Butler would get a #5 seed and also got to the Sweet Sixteen that year as well.

The 2006 BracketBusters showcased 19 eventual NCAA Tournament teams that year, which is the most for any of that series.  The 2006 Bracketbusters also had the most wins by teams in the NCAA Tournament, twelve.  Yes, most of the wins were due to George Mason's Final Four run.  But the Missouri Valley teams did a lot of damage too, as Bradley and Wichita State each went to the Sweet Sixteen.  The 2010 series finished second with ten, due in large part to the National Championship run of Butler and the Sweet 16 run of  Northern Iowa.

Now the 2010 edition would have tied the 2006 edition had St Mary's played that year.  The Gaels, a usual member of the BracketBuster series, decided not to be a part of the BracketBusters that season.   Likewise, the 2011 edition would have broken the 2006 edition's record had Butler, another usual member of the BracketBusters, played last year.  The Bulldogs had become the darling of the national media and played a lot of high visibility games on national TV, so they didn't need the BracketBuster exposure.

But curiously enough, for the 2012 BracketBusters, both Butler and St Mary's are there.  One team that I wished was there, LIU, who lost to North Carolina in the first round of this year's NCAA Tournament, will not be a part of it.  In fact, no NEC teams will be a part of the BracketBusters, due to their demanding conference schedule.  

It's a shame because, like it or not, based on the evidence I have shown above, the BracketBusters has made a difference to mid major teams.  And for the Blackbirds, a team that I think will be a repeat champion in the NEC, a little national exposure and a big non conference win can go a long way.  Ask George Mason, VCU, Davidson and Southern Illinois.

Conference Realignment is All About the Money

I guess it was only a matter of time before we had serious conference realignment.  In the past several days, the dominoes have truly started to fall.  Texas A&M agrees to join the SEC.  Then Pittsburgh and Syracuse join the ACC, while UConn and Rutgers look to join them as well.  Meanwhile, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas Tech and Oklahoma State are looking to join the PAC-12.  Now comes news that what's probably left of the Big 12 is looking to merge with the Big East.

It's survival of the fittest and the loser in all this is the sports fan.  Basketball rivalries like Syracuse vs. St John's, Kansas vs. Oklahoma (anyone remember the 1988 NCAA Championship game?) and football rivalries like Pitt vs. West Virginia (depending on where they end up) could become a thing of the past.  Already, you have seen the demise of Oklahoma vs. Nebraska in football when the Cornhuskers left for the Big Ten.

And forget conferences based on geography.  Remember when the Big East was comprised of schools in the East and Atlantic Coast conference schools that actually resided near the Atlantic Ocean?  Syracuse and Pittsburgh are about as Atlantic as TCU is East or Utah and Colorado are Pacific (kudos to Brendan Loy for that last reference). 

And what's the root cause?  What else, money! Greed.  TV contracts.  In this case, football TV contracts.  That's why you are hearing that if the Big 12 and the Big East merge, it would be into the Big 12, due to the contract with Fox and ESPN/ABC.   

So college football seems to be the root of all this super conference evil.  It's why Utah and Colorado were grabbed up by the PAC 12 and soon some of their fellow Big 12 brethren.  And the Mountain West trying to be the new big kid on the block swooped up Boise State and Nevada.  I assure you, the Broncos and Wolfpack were not taken for their hoops teams.

Eventually, there will be the PAC 16, the SEC, the Big Ten (how many teams does it take before you change the name from the Big Ten?), the Big 12/Big East combo and the not so now Atlantic Coast Conference running the BCS landscape. 

But what does this mean for college basketball?   Well, the non football playing Big East members probably will decide to keep their own conference.  Whether it's still named the Big East is a huge question.  Notre Dame is obviously an independent in football.  What they decide to do as far as basketball is anyone's guess.  But for St John's, Villanova, Marquette, Providence, Georgetown, and Seton Hall, they will probably band up and try to do their own version of a super conference and pluck teams from the Atlantic 10 and maybe Conference USA.   

You could certainly see Xavier, Richmond, Temple and St Joe's in the sights of the Big East's remnants.  Of course, that would then leave a weakened A-10 trying to fight for survival.  Some, like Defiantly Dutch, say that would mean that several of the CAA's northeast teams would then join the Atlantic 10.  I  happen to agree somewhat with the Dutchman.   Since the CAA has positioned itself quite well now as a supreme football subdivision conference, the exodus will be small, limited to Drexel, Northeastern and Hofstra.  It has already killed A-10 football when most of the A-10 went to the CAA en mass after 2006.  Delaware will not leave, due to being an elite FCS program in the CAA.  Towson is also trying to develop its football team as well.   I am not sure they are willing to be a part of a A-10 conference that doesn't have football.

But here's where I differ with Dutch.   With the A-10 now only a basketball driven league and potentially weakened by a mass withdrawal to a reconfigured Big East, I think the CAA might swallow a good portion of the rest of the A-10, similar to the potential Big 12 acquisition of the Big East football teams.  You could see the CAA saying to Rhode Island and UMass "You're already here in the CAA in football.  Why not join us for the rest of your sports too?"    

Then you would see the CAA become a mid major super conference, with two divisions, similar to the MAC.   Yes, there is the likely scenario that the A-10 could damage the CAA and take the teams that don't have football, Hofstra, Drexel and Northeastern. But only three of the northeast teams would really go.  So if you lose Hofstra, Drexel and Northeastern, but gain UMass, Rhode Island and say a third school like Appalachian State, some would say that makes the CAA stronger, not weaker.

My guess is that in the end, you will have both a stronger CAA and a weaker A-10, albeit.  Thus, the end result is that the CAA and the A-10 will be on a comparable level (where currently the A-10 is a level above).  

And of course, this will trickle down to the other mid major conferences as well.  What will the Horizon and the Valley do to keep their teams or strengthen their conferences?   Will St Louis finally decide that the Atlantic 10 doesn't fit and head off to the Missouri Valley, like it should?  Does that mean the Valley will try to find the Bilikens a partner, say Butler?  Will the WAC even survive? 

This is all conjecture right now.   The next few months promise even more upheaval and who ends up where is still anyone's guess.  But when the smoke finally clears, one thing will be apparent.  The college landscape is going to look a whole lot different than it did a year ago.

Looking Back on 2010-11 - The Season of the CAA

When VCU won the ESPYs award for "Best Upset", it capped an amazing season for the CAA.  Three teams in the NCAA Tournament, one team in the Final Four, former CAA players making a mark in the NBA playoffs and a second round draft pick in the NBA Draft.

As the 2010-11 college basketball season first started, I am sure CAA Commissioner Tom Yeager had a hopeful outlook for his conference.  There was the potential for multiple NCAA Tournament bids.   Old Dominion, which had won the CAA championship and defeated Notre Dame in the first round of the 2010 NCAA Tournament, returned most of its starting lineup.  VCU, which had won the CBI, returned most of is starting lineup from the season before.  George Mason had their entire starting lineup returning.  And finally, the reigning CAA player of the year, Hofstra's Charles Jenkins was returning for his senior season.

As play started, the non-conference schedule in November and December proved to be a boon for the Colonial’s chances to be a multi bid conference.   ODU, "the Ground and Pound of College Basketball", knocked off eventual NCAA Tournament teams in Clemson and Xavier in winning the Paradise Jam Classic, then later defeated eventual Sweet 16 member Richmond.  Meanwhile in the NIT, VCU defeated eventual NCAA first round winner UCLA in the consolation round (after barely losing to another NCAA Tournament team in Tennessee).   Drexel traveled to the Yum Center and knocked off host Louisville on national TV.

Meanwhile, Jenkins was off to a torrid start, including a 19 point first half against North Carolina in the nationally televised first round of the Puerto Rico Tip Off Tournament.  Jenkins’ strong play would garner national attention for himself and for the CAA as a whole.  That national attention would pay dividends for Jenkins later on in 2011.

As conference season started, it became apparent that the CAA was going to be extremely competitive.  Six CAA teams would be in the RPI 100 for most of the season and would remain so at the end of the season – ODU, George Mason, VCU, Hofstra, Drexel and James Madison.   The especially high RPI ratings for ODU, Mason and VCU started fueling the fire for #3BidsForCAA, a hashtag that was being tweeted heavily by CAA fans/supporters.

The aforementioned six teams would jockey for position during the first month of the season.  As the first half of the conference season ended, the CAA was rewarded for their outstanding play with five nationally televised Bracketbuster games.

And the CAA didn’t disappoint their fans on Bracketbuster weekend. Four of those teams won their televised games.  That Friday night, VCU won at Wichita State on two game ending free throws by Joey Rodriguez.  Afterwards, Drexel dominated Kent State.   Hofstra would lose their Saturday morning game at Wright State, but George Mason would rally to win at Northern Iowa later that evening.  Finally on Sunday, ODU convincingly won at home vs. Cleveland State.   #3BidsForCAA was now in full force.

As the second half of the season progressed, it was clear that Jenkins was receiving consideration for All American honors.   Jenkins would be torrid for the entire season shooting more than 50 percent from the field, including 42 percent from three.  He set the Hofstra scoring record and had his jersey retired before his last game at the Mack Center.   And his game tying and game winning shots vs. William Mary at home on February 15 (on no less my birthday) became a top ESPN Sportscenter highlight and a viral sensation. Jenkins was now not only garnering national attention, but significant attention by NBA teams.  Twenty-seven NBA scouts witnessed his 28 point performance vs. Georgia State.

As the conference season progressed, it was clear George Mason was on a roll.  After losing two straight early season conference games against Hofstra and Old Dominion, George Mason would not lose another game the rest of the regular season.  The Patriots finished first in the CAA at 16-2 and were ranked in the Top 25. 

Meanwhile, after a sluggish start, Old Dominion righted themselves and finished tied for second in conference with a 14-4 record.  Due to their strong non conference wins, the Monarchs were seen by many experts as a lock for an at large bid.    It was becoming apparent that at least two CAA teams that were going to make the NCAA Tournament.

As the CAA Tournament started, the four top teams were George Mason, Old Dominion, Hofstra and VCU.   VCU, which had been one point in first place in the CAA at 9-1, had limped to the finish of the regular season at 12-6. Their struggles towards the end of the CAA regular season seemed to have damaged their chances for an at large bid to the NCAA Tournament. 

Entering, that first weekend in March, the 2011 CAA Tournament so reminded me of the 2006 CAA Tournament.  You had a significant number of teams in the top 100 of the RPI just like 2006. And just like 2006, it was assumed that two CAA teams would make the NCAA Tournament.  Finally, George Mason was ranked in the Top 25 just like it had been briefly in 2006.  The stage was set for a memorable tournament.

The CAA Tournament started with a bang.  All four first round games were decided by six points or less.  The end of the first round day of action was capped by William and Mary's Quinn McDowell setting the tournament record for points in a game with 35 as the Tribe upset #6 James Madison.

After struggling at the end of the regular season, VCU redeemed themselves in Richmond.  After a rock fight win over #5 Drexel in the quarterfinals, the Rams stunned and absolutely dominated #1 George Mason in the semifinals in front of a very loud somewhat partisan Richmond Coliseum crowd.   The talk of #3Bids4CAA kindled anew after the win over the Patriots.

Meanwhile, ODU methodically went about their business.  Down early against Delaware, the Monarchs rallied and beat the BlueHens.   Then against Hofstra and the now two time CAA player of the year Jenkins, Old Dominion held off a very tough Pride team, who had stifled McDowell and William and Mary in the quarterfinals, to get to the finals. 

In the championship game, featuring the biggest rivalry in the CAA, Old Dominion went out to a big lead in front of another very loud crowd (especially loud for TV).  But VCU rallied to within two points,  but the Monarchs held off the Rams to win the CAA Tournament and the automatic bid.  Now the question was how many teams would the CAA get into the dance.

Leading up to Selection Sunday, as aforementioned, the CAA was guaranteed two bids.  George Mason’s dominant regular season run, plus the nationally televised Bracketbuster win on the road over Northern Iowa had the Patriots as a number 8 seed in most predicted NCAA brackets.  Old Dominion already had the automatic bid of course.  VCU seemed to be on the outside looking in but was part of the discussion.

Then the bids were announced on CBS and VCU was named one of the teams in the First Four games to be played on Tuesday. #3Bids4CAA had become a reality!   But the outcries came out from the supposed experts, including one Jay Bilas who noted that VCU "failed the laugh test."   It would turn out that the Rams would have the last laugh.

In the First Four, VCU came out and stymied USC's offense.  The Rams forced fifteen Trojans' turnovers and USC would have 21 less FG attempts in the game.  VCU would win the second ever First Four at large bid game in convincing fashion 59-46.

The three CAA teams did their fans proud in the First Round of the NCAA Tournament.  Old Dominion fought tooth and nail with Butler for the entire game.  But the Monarchs would eventually lose to the now two time National Runner-up Bulldogs on a buzzer beater putback by Matt Howard.  George Mason would rally to win their first round game against Villanova, as the Patriots beat former Hofstra coach Jay Wright, much to the chagrin of Defiantly Dutch.    Then on Friday night, VCU flat out dominated Georgetown, using twelve three pointers to bomb the Hoyas out of Chicago 74-56.

In the second round, the Patriots stormed out to a 11-2 lead over the Buckeyes.  But Ohio State went on a 50-15 run and George Mason was eliminated in Cleveland.  Mason would suffer another loss a few months later when long time coach Jim Larranaga left Fairfax for the sun and the sand at the University of Miami.

But the Rams would continue their magical run.  First, VCU would change tactics against Purdue, foregoing their three point shooting for driving the lane at will vs. the Boilermakers.  With 57 percent shooting from the field and 26 assists, VCU literally ran over Purdue 94-76 for their third double digit win in a row in the NCAA Tournament in five days.

In the Sweet Sixteen, VCU took on defensive minded Florida State.  The game went into overtime where Brandon Burgess took an inbounds pass from Joey Rodriguez for the game winning layup as the Rams knocked off the Seminoles 72-71.   The First Four team from Richmond was now in the Elite Eight against mighty #1 seed Kansas.

And with a chance to go to the Final Four, it was VCU that played like the #1 seed.  The Rams jumped out to a 39-21 lead before going into halftime up fourteen.  Then VCU withstood a furious Kansas rally that cut the margin to two 46-44.  But the Rams lowered their heads and battering rammed the Jayhawks with a 10-2 spurt.  VCU would go onto a 71-61 win.  VCU would be the first team ever that went from the First Four to the Final Four.

The Rams would face another mid major in the Bulldogs of Butler in the National Semifinals, giving Mid Major fans everywhere a guaranteed mid major team in the final for the second year in a row.  As hard as they tried though, it wasn't going to be the Rams.  Butler held off VCU 70-62 and the Rams' magical run ended on the court of Reliant Stadium.  But VCU truly excelled in the tournament, where the Rams each beat a team from the PAC-10, Big East, Big Ten, ACC and Big 12.  Four of those wins were by double digits.

And it was not just in college basketball where the CAA excelled.  In the 2010-11 NBA season, several CAA alums made their mark on pro basketball.  Former VCU star, Larry Sanders enjoyed his first season in the NBA with the Milwaukee Bucks.   Another former VCU star, Eric Maynor averaged 13 minutes per game for an Oklahoma City Thunder team that made the Western Conference finals.   In his first season in the NBA for San Antonio, Towson’s Gary Neal played significant minutes off the bench. The former Tiger sharpshooter nailed a game tying three-point buzzer for the Spurs that forced overtime in their playoff series against the Memphis Grizzlies.

Then there was J.J. Barea.   The former Northeastern Huskie, who used to terrorize CAA backcourts, has become a fixture off the bench for the Dallas Mavericks.  More importantly, Barea played an important part in the Mavs’ series wins over the L.A. Lakers and the Thunder.  Barea then finally had a big game in Game Six of the NBA Championship as Dallas defeated the Miami Heat to win the NBA championship.

To cap the CAA's mark in the NBA, Charles Jenkins was drafted in the second round of the NBA draft by the Golden State Warriors.  It marked the third year in a row a CAA player was taken in the NBA draft (Maynor in 2009 and Sanders in 2010).  The CAA is now known as a conference that has NBA talent.

All of this evidence shows that the 2010-11 basketball season truly was the Season of the CAA.

Hofstra's 2010-11 Success Was All About Skill

John Templon, the author of the very informational and fun to read Big Apple Buckets site, does a lot of statistical analysis of teams.  Recently, he has been doing a series of "Team Similarities", comparing teams from this past season to teams of recent past.  

One of those teams in his series was Hofstra.  In his Hofstra Team Similarity, John states that Ken Pomeroy's "luck metric" notes that "Hofstra was the sixth luckiest team in basketball last season according to his metric which compares pythagorean record to actual record."  Furthermore Pomeroy's statistic says that Hofstra won four more games than they should have.  And based on John's team similarities, of the five teams in recent history that were most similar, only the 2006-07 Wisconsin Green Bay team was more than one game above .500 (18-15).

Now for the few, the proud, the readers of my site, you know I am not the biggest fan of Ken Pomeroy's statistics.  In my April 9 article called "NCAA Double Standards and Basketball People", I took issue with some of Pomeroy's ratings, specifically when it came to both Virginia Tech and Maryland.  So this is not the first time I am disagreeing with a Pomeroy metric.

Having become friendly with John via Twitter, we went back and forth on the Hofstra article and I told him that I was going to do a little statistical research of my own.   Teams play well often due to the less glamorous stats, like ball possession and free throws.  I told John that I thought it was mainly due to Hofstra's very good assists to turnover ratio this past season.  But I decided to dig a little deeper and did some research on three categories that might explain why Hofstra was 21-12 (well other than Charles Jenkins of course).

Team	Record	APG	TPG	FT %	Record 7 Pts or less Margin
2010-11 Hofstra	21-12	14	10	76.1	9-4
2006-07 Wisc Green Bay	18-15	11	12	76.0	3-3
2009-10 Stanford	14-18	13	12	66.4	5-6
2006-07 Rider	16-15	14	14	71.9	8-5
2005-06 Utah Valley State	16-18	14	12	70.3	7-4
2009-10 Montana State	15-14	13	11	68.8	8-7

(assists and turnovers were rounded to the nearest number)

As you can see from the above table, when you do the math, Hofstra (13.6 assists per game) had the best assists to turnover ratio of the six teams listed. In fact, the Pride led the CAA in assist to turnover ratio with a 1.3 ratio and had the fewest turnovers in the CAA, 342 .  Hofstra also had the best free throw percentage of the six teams listed.  Only VCU made more free throws in the CAA this past season than Hofstra.  Finally, of the teams listed above, the Pride had the best record in games decided by seven points or less, along with having the most wins in those games.

Finally, including their quarterfinal win over William and Mary, Hofstra was 11-0 in vs. teams below .500 in the CAA.  George Mason was the only other CAA team above .500 that accomplished that feat this past season.  Beating the teams that you're supposed to beat is a very important factor in conference play, especially in such a competitive conference like the CAA.

John also noted in a tweet to me though that he couldn't statistically prove it, he thought having a go-to guy helps.  Now I certainly agree with John's statement because Jenkins was dominant this season and certainly it could be said based on John Hollinger's Player Efficiency Ratings, Luke Winn's statistical analysis and even my own article that he was one of the most important players to his team in the country.  

Also, two of the teams that Hofstra was compared in John's similarities had go-to guys that have eventually had successful NBA careers - 2006-07 Rider had Jason Thompson (20.1 ppg) and 2009-10 Stanford had Landry Fields (22.3 ppg).  So those comparisons bode well for Jenkins, the recent second round pick of the Golden State Warriors.

But in fairness to the Pride, Jenkins was the go to guy in his two previous seasons at Hofstra as well.  And one could argue that the Pride had as much talent in those two previous seasons as he did this past season.  But those Hofstra teams were nowhere near as successful in conference those two seasons (10-8 in 2009-10 and 11-7 in 2008-09) and did not make it past the CAA Quarterfinals in either season.

A lot of that had to do with assists to turnover ratio.  In 2009-10, Hofstra's was sixth in the CAA in assists to turnover ratio at 1.0 and in 2008-09, the Pride was last in the CAA with a .7 assists to turnover ratio.  Hofstra was also third this past season in the CAA in turnover margin (+2.29).  In their two previous seasons, the Pride had a negative turnover margin; - .24 in 2009-10 and -1.38 in 2008-09 which was last in the CAA.

So to paraphrase Ross Perot, charts and stats don't lie.  Hofstra's success was based on a lot of statistical categories, especially when it came to assists to turnover ratio and turnover margin.  That's how Hofstra won 21 games and finished third in a very competitive and talented CAA with a 14-4 conference record.

That has to do with skill and talent folks, not luck.