Monday, April 20, 2009

CAA Transfers and Lunardi Gets It Right

The CAA has several players in the past couple of weeks transfer. First, JMU sophomore guard Ben Ratner realized the numbers game with the Dukes and decided best to transfer. Next, UNC Wilmington lost their two best freshman, as Kevon Moore and Jerel Stephenson have decided to transfer. This means this past season's stunningly bad Seahawks are now even worse. Coach Benny Moss' job is on the line this season. Seldom used Northeastern forward Erik Etherly transferred to Loyola Md. Finally, VCU's starting point guard, Joey Rodriguez, decided to transfer after coach Anthony Grant left to take the Alabama job. With the loss of Eric Maynor due to graduation and now a two year starter in Rodriguez, again I ask, is Larry Sanders soon to follow.

This past week, Joe Lunardi wrote two terrific articles on ESPN "Re-examining the At-Large Eye Test",and the followup, "Making the Case for Mid-Majors". In the first article, Lunardi discusses how the NCAA picks teams from the BCS conferences over non BCS teams that may be more deserving. Lunardi puts it "As in when 'doing everything you reasonably can' isn't enough to get into the NCAA tournament ahead of the big boys. Lunardi bases it on the following;

A few years back, a conscious and well-meaning distinction was made between the 34 "best" teams for at-large consideration and the 34 "most deserving." The former took precedence over the latter, whereas for me they had always been one and the same. I disagreed with the distinction at the time, and I am fundamentally opposed to it today.
Isn't it great that the NCAA, otherwise known in this column as No Clue At All, made that distinction?! If you read Lunardi's article, he uses various statistical categories to show that three teams, San Diego State, Wisconsin and Creighton warranted selection over Arizona, St Mary's and Penn State. Of course, Wisconsin did make it but Arizona made it over more worthy San Diego State or Creighton.

Lunardi also talks in the article about the NCAA selection committee using RPI more than they say they do.

The NCAA maintains that it only uses the RPI as an organizational tool, yet every team data sheet available to the committee is stuffed with RPI breakdowns. Teams are voted into the tournament because of things like top 50 wins (Arizona) and excluded because of an RPI subset like a sub-300 nonconference schedule (Penn State). That sounds like more than organization to me; it sounds like applied evidence.
If the NCAA is going to use pieces of the RPI for its selections, it might as well use the whole RPI set of criteria for its selections. Be consistent. Oh I forgot, this is the NCAA (more on that in a second).

I had a different take on who I thought was worthy for selection, as when I made my case for Creighton and St Mary's back in March, two teams that I thought that did 'everything they reasonably can" to make the tournament. But as a good friend of mine in college basketball has stated to me, each NCAA Tournament Selection Committee uses a different set of rules to justify their selections. In other words, no set criteria whatsoever. God forbid using a Moore Primer!

The second Lunardi article is even better. In that article, Lunardi comes right out and says the following in the beginning of the article.

What I object to is the at-large selection of a team (Arizona) to play for a national championship (twice, actually) with an 18-21 record in its own conference over the past two seasons. If you can't win at least half the time in your own league, what makes you worthy to compete for a championship against the best teams from every other league?
This is exactly what I noted in my article a month ago entitled "Just Some Post Selection Sunday Thoughts".

Message to the NCAA. Stop rewarding mediocrity. Stop giving .500 conference teams at large bids that go 2-9 on the road (with the two wins over the worst two teams in the PAC-10) because they won big home games and have a 25 year reputation..."
Finally, someone else gets that!

Lunardi goes on further to say the Jay Bilas idea of having "The best 64 teams in the tournament", thus getting rid of the automatic berths for low mid major conferences, would not work (more on that in a future posting). As Lunardi puts it, this would result in "a split on the order of the Football Bowl Subdivision and Football Championship Subdivision", that would in large part result in the question of whether the remaining upper division schools could schedule 30 games on a season.

But the main point of Lunardi's article comes up in the next couple of paragraphs. Lunardi actually breaks down the NCAA tournament records of teams with losing conference records that make the NCAA Tournament (taking into account not only the regular season but their conference tournament records - mostly one and done) . He also compares it to the record of non-BCS conference teams.

Overall, these 46 teams -- despite an average seed of 8.9 -- have won less than 40 percent of their NCAA tournament games (.395 to be precise). In the past 10 years, the numbers are even worse (13 teams, .350 winning percentage), when, by seeding, the figure should be much closer to 50 percent. Dare I suggest that we can do better than have losing conference teams in the NCAA tournament field?

Non-BCS at-large candidates, by comparison, win an even 40 percent of the time -- this despite being seeded to lose (a 10.9 seed average, two spots worse than their BCS counterparts) and less favorable geographic placement. We also have seen a Final Four team from this group -- George Mason, 2006 -- as well as four others in the Elite Eight.

Well, lo and behold, statistics that prove my point. Teams that are considered mid major or non power conference teams DO BETTER than mediocre BCS teams in the Big Dance. In fact, Lunardi states that in the 25 years since the 64/65 team format, 46 teams (FORTY SIX!) with losing conference records have made the NCAA Tournament. Of those 46, only six made the Sweet 16 and only one, NC State in 1986, made the Elite Eight. In other words, they are usually one and done.

But here's a scarier statistic. In light of mid majors doing phenomenally well in the NCAA Tournament in recent years, look what's happened

This all is such a big deal because, in spite of what you might have heard, the power conferences are a bit of a "closed system" with respect to scheduling. Membership in the BCS leagues has not changed in the past three years. Yet the number of games played by BCS schools against their closest competitors -- the Atlantic 10, Conference USA, MVC, Mid-American, Mountain West and WAC -- continues to decline. It has dropped more than 7 percent, in fact, in just the past two years. Worse, the non-BCS schools get home games against their BCS rivals less than a quarter of the time and neutral court matchups only slightly more often.
Think about it. In light of all the facts stating how non BCS schools fare as at large teams, if you are a big conference school, how do you make sure that you improve your chances of making the NCAA tournament? Schedule less games against the non BCS schools. I remember vividly Dick Vitale, of all people, making this case on the ESPN NCAA Post Selection Show and Jay Bilas shooting him down. Well guess what Jay, Dick is right and Lunardi just proved it.

So how do you solve this problem of the NCAA Selection Committee selecting mediocre BCS teams that go nowhere anyhow (Arizona folks was a fluke this season, lets face it)? Look at what Lunardi's solution would be.

Here's something the BCS folks should understand: You have to be tournament-eligible (just like being bowl-eligible in college football). I've written it a thousand times. Show me at least a .500 conference record -- and I'll even give you the chance to reach it (or blow it) in your conference tournament -- and I'll show you an at-large bid. If not, too bad.

The public, I think, understands this intuitively. The NCAA tournament should be for winners, and there is 25 years' worth of data supporting the notion. If that doesn't work for NC State or Alabama or Iowa State or Providence, no one is holding a gun to their heads to stay in power conferences (and I highly doubt we'll see a sudden exodus).

Now does that sound familiar? Look what I wrote a month ago, in the same article I mentioned above, right after the NCAA Selection Show.
If the NCAA had the kahones to do it, there would be an easy way to solve the at large bid process. This is something I am pretty sure I have noted before too. To be considered for an at large berth, you must have an above .500 conference record during the regular season.

Of course, below .500 conference teams can make the tournament by winning the conference tournament, but this way it makes teams EARN their way into the dance and doesn't reward mediocrity.

If you had this policy in place, the following teams wouldn't even had been under consideration; Maryland, Arizona, Minnesota and Michigan. There are a lot of angry Penn State fans tonight who would have been probably appeased had this rule been in effect. Chances are Penn State, 10-8 in the Big Ten would be in the dance as a result.
Lunardi says you have to be at least .500. To me, that's mediocrity. So I take it a step further. You have to be ABOVE .500. Unlike my case, in Lunardi's case, Maryland, Arizona and Minnesota would not have made it. Michigan would have. But that's ok, I would settle for Lunardi's criteria. Based on his criteria, you would have on average, two more teams from non BCS conferences that actually earned their way into the dance.

But the fact is, that will never happen. The No Clue At All won't allow that to happen. God forbid we have set criteria. But as Lunardi says isn't the idea "that every team in the field actually achieve something"? Or as I put it "As a result you will have an even better tournament. Isn't that the idea?! "

Yeah that's the idea. As Lunardi says, "There's still a place for a 7-9 team, by the way. It's called the NIT. " Yup, and don't worry guys, CM Newton will take care of you there.

Ladies and Gentleman, there's a new Mid Majors Champion. His name...Joe Lunardi. Maybe, just maybe more important voices like Lunardi's will pop up and maybe, just maybe, that .500 conference criteria might finally get put in place.

Friday, April 17, 2009

Mills Declares for Draft

St Mary's Sophomore Patty Mills announced that he was declaring for the NBA draft yesterday. However, Mills will not hire an agent, which is a terrific move. This way, as most of you know, Mills can drop out of the draft if he believes his draft status is not that strong prior to the draft, or is not drafted (highly unlikely) and can return to school.

I think the wisest decision Patty Mills can make is to talk to Marty Blake, the director of NBA Scouting Services and who runs his own scouting service. Mills will get a good idea of where he would be drafted. No one, I mean NO ONE, knows more about basketball talent than Marty Blake. I would love to hear where Blake thinks Mills would go in this year's draft.

Having watched Mills often enough this past season, I think he would benefit from another year in school. He needs to work on his point guard skills a little more as well as his shooting. Plus, his St Mary's Gaels return basically everyone sans Diamon Simpson. I think if Mills returns to the Gaels and teams up with the increasingly talented Omar Samhan, the Gaels could very well win the WCC. That would give Mills increased exposure for next year's NBA draft.

Sunday, April 12, 2009

Coaching Changes/Extensions and the NCAA Is At It Again

Things are always changing in the basketball universe.

In the world of mid major basketball, Anthony Grant left VCU for Alabama. So what do the Rams do? They pilfer another assistant from the University of Florida, Shaka Smart. Smart was an assistant at Florida last season. Prior to that, Smart was an assistant at Clemson for two seasons, and previously was an assistant at Akron for three seasons. Smart promises "the most exciting style of basketball in the CAA" and will continue the Rams style of pressure started by Grant.

Apparently VCU has a direct line with Florida Coach Billy Donovan. Rams' AD Norwood Teague said he frequently contacted Donovan during the process and Donovan highly recommended Smart. It's the second straight Florida assistant that VCU hired. Grant was previously Donovan's top assistant at Florida.

Smart wasted no time connecting with his players as noted by Rams' point guard Joey Rodriguez. Rodriguez stated "He told every kid on the team where he'd seen them play before." Apparently Smart is indeed that, smart. Hopefully he will be able to keep Larry Sanders there at VCU.

While some coaches change jobs, some get extensions. Hofstra coach Tom Pecora got an extension through the 2014 season. No financial terms were disclosed. Pecora has led the Pride to 2o wins in four of the last five seasons. In fact, Pecora and assistant coach Michael Kelly authored an article "Attacking Pressure Defense", that was recently publised in FIBA's magazine. No truth to the rumor that the article stated basically " Just Give the Ball to Charles Jenkins." :-)

Actually, when Pecora last had his guard trifecta of Carlos Rivera, Loren Stokes and Antoine Agudio together in the 2006-07 season , they did an excellent job in breaking VCU's press ( and yes, that's the VCU that beat Duke in the first round of the NCAA tourney) I was at that game and it was proof that given good guards, Pecora's style can break pressure defenses quite well.

Dell Curry said that his son Stephen should be making his decision on whether to declare for the NBA draft or return to Davidson for his senior season this week. Here's hoping for the latter. He needs one more season of getting stronger and working on his D.

Meanwhile the NCAA again shows why their initials stand for "No Clue At All". Now Facebook fan groups are now considered "recruiting sites". A NC state student puts up a Facebook group site called "John Wall PLEASE come to NC STATE!!". Over 700 people signed up for the group, which has all the recruiting power of a gnat. Then the NCAA forces NC State's compliance director to send a "cease and desist letter" to Taylor Moseley, the student who put up the site. Moseley had to comply, otherwise he would face "further action".

What further action would that be? CM Newton coming to his dorm room to discuss how to seed a NIT bracket? NO, NO, NOT THAT!! By the way, did anyone notice what happened to San Diego State once they were on a neutal site in the NIT? A fourteen point loss by Baylor. Still can't get over them getting a one seed over St Mary's despite a neutral site loss to the Gaels earlier in the season. If you don't think the Cox Center was the difference in that game vs. St Mary's in the quarters, you weren't watching.

Sorry to digress. Back to point. So say if a recruit gets a free cup of lemonade from a kid's lemonade stand and the little kid says "Come to Hofstra", is that stand now a recruiting site? Would that mean a Hofstra compliance officer would deliver "a cease and desist" letter to a five year old? Based on the No Clue At All, the answer to both questions is yes!

Another example why the NCAA is a joke. A bad joke. The NCAA needs to be spending more time getting its athletes to graduate than spending time overseeing Facebook groups.

Thursday, April 2, 2009

The Universe is Back

It may not be in order, but the universe is back.

This is the first real post of the Alternate College Basketball Universe since I changed the name. A lot has gone on since that last post.

Anthony Grant IS the new head coach at Alabama. He is making two million a year. TWOOO MILLLLLION. About 4-5 times he was making at VCU. As I noted in a previous post, the question of the day...does Larry Sanders follow him to Alabama? For those who don't remember, when Ron Everhart left Northeastern a few years back for Duquesne, shotblocker extraordinare Shawn James went with him. The similarities are there. Both sophomores, both dominate in the paint and have increasingly potential scoring abilities.

By the way, had not Shawn James stupidly declared for the NBA draft last season, do you think Duquesne might have won the A10 championship this season? They made the finals of the A10 Tournament without him. Yup, what could have been. Another example of someone who should have talked to Marty Blake (Google him to find out who he is).

As much as I am happy for a CAA team to win the inaugural CIT, did anyone really know that ODU won that thing? However, the win over Bradley in the championship game wasn't the interesting note there. I am still trying to figure out how they beat fellow CAA member James Madison 81-43 in the semifinals! The teams during the season actually won on each other's home courts with the margin in either game no larger than eight. Don't cry for the Dukes though. They will be VERY good next year with that nucleus of Julius Wells, Devon Moore, Pierre Curtis, Andrey Semenov and Dazz Thornton.

By the way in that final against Bradley, Frank Harrell had 18 points and 15 rebounds in that 56-52 at Bradley for ODU. Harrell played the second half of the season with a stress fracture in his leg. But his postgame comments are what did it for me too. As you know, I am a big fan of Monarchs coach Blaine Taylor, and wrote a story about him earlier in the season. Here's what Harrell had to say after the win over the Braves.

"I'm just so glad we won. It's the first tournament championship I've ever won. Ever. What a great team and what a great coach."

And Taylor cemented his status with me with this gem of a quote.

"I feel kind of bad for Bradley. They played a great game. But we won it and we ain't giving it back."


Not so awesome is hearing the news that Seth Curry is transferring to the Evil Empire, aka Duke. After all the speculation of it being an A10 team or perhaps even Wake Forest. No, it has to be the Dukies. Hey good for Seth Curry. Maybe Coach K is learning what I have been saying for the past three years. Their guards (which he recruits obviously) are not very good. VCU exploited that two years ago and Villanova exploited it again in the Sweet 16. Teams with good guards will beat Duke. Perhaps Seth Curry will change that. But I will say this, I have more respect for his brother Stephen now. You never saw Stephen transfer after his freshman year at Davidson. Or his sophomore year when he led the Wildcats to the Elite Eight. The kid is class all the way.

Next posting, the year in pictures.