For Hofstra, The Time Is Now

It's been going on eighteen years since Hofstra Men's Basketball last made the NCAA Tournament.  The Pride moved from the America East to the CAA right after winning their second America East Championship in a row.    They would find the Colonial Athletic Association a much more difficult conference to make their mark in.

Hofstra has had very few significant chances to make the NCAA Tournament since moving to the Colonial.  Twice they lost in the CAAHoops Tournament Finals, both times to UNCW.  In 2006, after knocking off  George Mason in the semifinals, the Pride's late second half championship game rally fell short, losing 78-67 to the Seahawks.  The Pride thought they would get an at large NCAA bid.  But they would be snubbed out of the tournament, settle for a NIT bid and would have to watch George Mason make it to the Final Four that year.

Ten years later, after having a double digit lead for a good part of the game, Hofstra saw UNCW rally to take a lead late in the second half of the championship game.  Hofstra would respond and force overtime.  But the Seahawks would then eventually break a tie with 1:26 left in overtime and win the game 80-73.  Again the Pride would have to settle for a NIT Bid, their fifth in their history.

Needless to say Hofstra fans don't "Feel the Teal".  

When I moved down south nearly six and a half years ago, I kept two of my four Hofstra Basketball season ticket seats.  This allowed my friends Tony, aka Tieff, and Mal to continue seeing the Pride play at The Mack.   I still follow the Pride pretty religiously, watching the Hofstra home games via their online stream site.   Occasionally when the Pride is in the region to play and time has allowed it, I've been able to see the Pride at Appalachian State, Elon, and Charleston, where I got to see a Hofstra win and a good steel drum band.   Finally, when the CAA Tournament wisely moved down to North Charleston in 2017 (sorry folks, but there have been more fans at CAA Tournament games in Charleston than Baltimore), I got to see the Pride lose a first round Pillow Fight game to Delaware.  

During the Christmas holidays, my family travels back up to Long Island to see family and friends.   This allows me to go to a Hofstra game (and even other college basketball games when the schedule allows), see old friends there and relive all the fun I had over eleven years of regular home games at The Mack.  This holiday break was no exception as it allowed my color analyst, aka my older son Matthew and me to see the Pride play an old America East rival, the Fighting Blue Hens of Delaware the last Friday night in December in Hempstead.

After starting the season 3-3, the Pride were in the midst of a seven game win streak and offered up premium game tickets for $7.77.  I went online, got two tickets and we went to The Mack.  

May I digress for a minute?   

I love college basketball, whether it's men's or women's college basketball.  And now living in Columbia, I have had both season tickets to University of South Carolina Men's and Women's college basketball.  Due to travel baseball commitments, I have only kept my USC Women's tickets (and when you live in Columbia, the University of South Carolina IS USC).  

As much as I like watching basketball games in the Colonial Life Arena and I have very good season ticket seats for the women's team, there is nothing like having great season tickets in a 5000 seat mid major arena of your alma mater.    And for eleven years, it wasn't just having terrific seats often watching a lot of good games (and I saw my share when the Pride were in their 2004-2007 heyday).  It was also seeing all your friends, sharing laughs and funny comments.  

It wasn't just a game at The Mack, it was a night on the town, an experience.  That's what made the Hofstra games even more special.  I greatly miss that. 

After saying hi to some long time Hofstra folks, we went to our seats, which was in the same section and not far from my season tickets, section 111, Row D.  I immediately found out that two longtime friends that I knew when they were Hofstra Law students, Michael and Kari Langer, had season tickets right in front of my longtime season tickets.  Michael and Kari came down to say hi while I was saying hi to my good friends Jaden Daly and Bob Sugar.    Michael had a few extra seats in his section and he kindly offered them to me so I could sit near Tieff.  We happily accepted.  

The Mack has undergone some significant changes in the past year.  Gone is the above the court scoreboard.  In its place are two significantly large HD digital scoreboards on our side of the court and two smaller HD digital scoreboards on the other side.  It takes a little while getting used to turning your head on our side to see the large scoreboards.  But it's a significant improvement over the old scoreboard that was a good eighteen years old. 

Even though Hofstra came in on a seven game winning streak and Delaware had just lost to a very bad Delaware State team, you never know what happens in #CAAHoops, especially the first conference game of the season.  Delaware entered the game 8-5.  The Blue Hens had also played two teams Hofstra played; Maryland and Stony Brook.  They lost two close games to the Terrapins and the Seawolves, while Hofstra split with those two teams, losing to Maryland after having an early second half lead and they won at Stony Brook 71-64.  

As noted, Hofstra came into the game versus Delaware on a seven game win streak with a twenty point average margin of victory.   But outside of the solid road win over a now 10-3 Stony Brook that has won road games over South Carolina, Rhode Island and Northern Iowa, Hofstra has not faced any real challenges in their win streak.    Their three losses on the season were all on the road to a Marshall team that made the third round of the NCAA Tournament last season, Maryland and VCU in overtime.  Three teams that are now a combined 26-12.  In each game, Hofstra had a lead in the second half.  So the Pride had played well but now came their first conference test.

Delaware won the tipoff and Eric Carter, likely Delaware's best player, made a layup to give the Blue Hens an early 2-0 lead.

It was their only lead of the game.

Eli Pemberton quickly tied the game with a jumper.  It was the start of a 10-0 Pride run, capped by, what else, a Justin Wright-Foreman three pointer.  Delaware would get another layup to cut the lead to six, 10-4.  It was the closest the Fighting Blue Hens would get the rest of the way.  The score was 18-10 Hofstra with a little over eleven and a half minutes remaining in the first half.  

Over the next eleven plus minutes the Pride would go on a 28-5 run.  

Yes, 28-5.  

During those eleven plus minutes, the 1500 in attendance were treated to a dominating performance on both sides of the court.  The Pride moved the ball around on offense and seemingly buried every open shot.   At one point during the run, they made eight of ten shots from the field.   The Pride would finish the first half up 48-18.  They shot 17 of 27 from the field in the first half and 6 of 10 from beyond the arc.  They topped it by going 8 of 9 from the charity stripe.

Meanwhile, Hofstra limited Delaware to 7 of 30 from the field in the first half, including 2 of 13 from beyond the arc.   Makes sense that Hofstra is first in #CAAHoops in Three Point Field Goal Percentage Defense.

After Joe Geyer was kind enough to give Matt, Tieff and I halftime passes to the Hofstra lounge to eat brownies, the second half was really no different as Hofstra extended their lead further, winning the game by FORTY FIVE points, 91-46.  The Fighting Blue Hens only shot 26% from the field and 21% from beyond the arc.  The win became even more impressive after Delaware won their next two games, a road win at Northeastern and a home win over William and Mary, two teams that were picked to finish in the top four of the CAA.

What the stats don't show is how well Hofstra moves the ball on offense.  They also have four deadly shooters in the starting lineup; Wright-Foreman, the reigning 2018 CAA Player of the Year, Pemberton, point guard Desure Buie and transfer newcomer Tareq Coburn.    Throw in Jalen Ray off the bench and you had 75 of their 91 points on the game, including shooting 12 of 18 from beyond the arc.

However, Hofstra has never really had a problem with offense under Coach Joe Mihalich.  Since the 2014-15 season, Hofstra has finished no lower than third in scoring offense in the CAA.  Currently, Hofstra is first in scoring offense, averaging over 82 points per game and first in field goal percentage at 49.1%. 

  

The Achilles Heel has always been defense with the Pride.  Since Coach Mihalich has taken over the team, Hofstra has finished no higher than seventh in the CAA in scoring defense.  Each year, they have given up on average over seventy points per game.  In the last two seasons, the Pride have given up 77 points per game.  Even in the 2015-16 season when they finished first in the regular season, Hofstra gave up 73.7 points per game. 

This year, Hofstra has given up an average of only 66.8 points per game, a difference of over 10 points per game.  The difference?   A much more aggressive defense.  The Pride are second in the CAA in steals at 6.9 per game, as opposed to 5.0 last year.  Hofstra also leads in Three Point Field Goal Percentage Defense at 30.7% per game as opposed to 36.3% last year.  

What the stats don't show and my eye test last Friday night showed was Hofstra playing a much more aggressive zone defense, getting out and contesting shooters much more than they have in the past.  They also really hustle on loose balls and have done a lot better on winning 50-50 balls. Coburn in particular really works hard on the defensive end.  Six foot 10 graduate transfer Jaquil Taylor has also given the Pride a shot blocking presence. He's second in the CAA in blocks at 1.4 blocks per game.  He contests a lot of shots, forcing a lot of misses in the paint, he really moves his feet well on defense and gets his share of rebounds (he had 12 against Delaware).  Carter, who leads Delaware in scoring at 18.2 points per game, got into early foul trouble playing against Taylor and was limited to seven points in the contest.

It was amazing during the game as often I would turn to Tieff or Defiantly Dutch, Jerry Beach, when I was sitting with him and say "Who is this Hofstra team?!"  I was finally seeing a complete Hofstra team.  The team that limited Stony Brook to 64 points on the road. The team that won at Manhattan 80-50.   It was real.

The Pride would win their other game against Drexel in similar fashion on Sunday. They roared out to a 47-27 halftime lead, holding the Dragons to 1 of 9 from beyond the arc in the first half.  Drexel would have much stronger second half, shooting 51% from the field in the half and cut the lead to six, 70-64.  But Hofstra would outscore Drexel 19-11 the rest of the way and win 89-75.  

Hofstra is now on a nine game win streak and a chance for ten in a row today.  But it won't be easy as they play pre-season favorite Northeastern at The Mack.  The Huskies have struggled due to injuries starting out 7-7 on the year.  But they are deep and talented with Vasa Pusica, Jordan Rowland, Shawn Occeus and Donnell Grisham Jr.   It's a critical game for Hofstra to win, plus they need to hold onto the Barone Bowl (sorry Mike Brodsky! ).

Even with Hofstra's terrific start, the College of Charleston, the defending CAA Champions loom large again.  They have actually top the Pride's winning streak as the Cougars have won 10 games in a row.  They even have a big road win over VCU, a team that Hofstra barely lost to in OT.  Charleston has wins over UAB, Memphis and Rhode Island.   With Grant Riller and Jarrell Brantley, the Cougars have an elite 1-2 punch.   They are still the team to beat but this Hofstra team may be the Cougars' best challenger in the CAA.

With half of their rotation - Wright-Foreman, Buie, Taylor and reserve forward Dan Dwyer all seniors and after last season's third place regular season team lost a disappointing quarterfinal game to UNCW (the Teal again!), the Pride know their window to succeed is closing.   With an elite offense and a much better defense, Hofstra knows this is their best chance to finally break the eighteen year glass ceiling and make the NCAA Tournament.

I can tell you this team has me excited.  For the first time in a few years, I have got tickets to see a regular season Hofstra road game at Elon next Saturday evening.  And depending on my schedule, I hope to see them at UNCW and at the final CAAHoops tournament at North Charleston for at least the next few years.  Next year, the CAA Tournament will be in Washington, DC.  

For a long time fan of my alma mater, there's excitement again about the Pride.  However, I know how fleeting college basketball success can be.   

For Hofstra, the time is now. 

CAA Tournament - Lovely To See You Again My Friend

When Hofstra moved to the Colonial Athletic Association starting in the 2001-02 season, the first CAAHoops tournament the Pride was in down in Richmond, I was sitting at home in Seaford, NY, listening to the games on WRHU radio.  Chelle and I were renting an apartment on the side of a house from my brother's long time friend Tom Graziose.

The 2001-02 Hofstra season was somewhat similar to the 2016-17 Hofstra season.  The Pride started out the season 4-2, including a win over an eventual Elite Eight team in Kent State.  Then the wheels came off the car, as Hofstra would lose sixteen of their next twenty one games, including their last seven regular season games in conference (Hofstra would start 9-5 this season before a rough stretch in CAA conference play).

Yet in the 2002 CAA Tournament, the #10 seed Hofstra remembered that it had some talent with Rick Apodaca, Danny Walker and others.   They pummeled the #7 seed Towson 72-52 in the first round play in game.  Then in a quarterfinal against Jerry Beach's all time favorite coach, Jim Larranaga, and #2 seed George Mason, the Pride pulled off a huge upset and knocked out a Patriots team that had won thirteen conference games, defeating them 82-76.  Hofstra would lose their semifinal game to VCU 70-54.

It would turn out to be only one of two times from 2002 to 2012 that I didn't attend the CAA Tournament in Richmond.  Starting in 2003, I would attend nine of the next ten CAA Tournaments. There are so many memories, including spending my last CAA Tournament on press row.  From the first tournament in 2003, seeing Woody Souffrant play the game of his life for Hofstra in a quarterfinal loss to eventual CAA champion UNCW, to the 2006 tournament where Hofstra proved it was the better team than George Mason in the CAA Semifinals, despite an underhanded punch to the groin by Tony Skinn, to the 2012 tournament and seeing George Mason nearly coming back from an early 32-4 deficit vs. VCU, the CAA Tournament always provided a signature moment with this college basketball fan.  You'll see pictures from several CAA Tournaments I have attended sprinkled throughout this blog post.

Then in the beginning of August 2012, I accepted a position with the University of South Carolina School of Law.  I would move down to Columbia, South Carolina in the middle of August and the rest of my family would join me six months later after we sold our house in North Bellmore, New York.    In February 2013, I would get involved in Little League down here, head coaching one team and assistant coaching another team, before eventually joining the Trenholm Little League Board.   As a result, I would not attend the last four CAA tournaments in Richmond and Baltimore respectively.

Then a funny thing happened.   Realizing that Baltimore was not drawing respectable size crowds (the 2016 championship game drew only 3000 fans), despite being a midway point between the farthest northern point in the conference - Boston - Northeastern, and the farthest southern point in the conference - Charleston - College of Charleston, CAA officials decided to go to where the crowds in #CAAHoops are (UNCW and CofC are the #1 and #2 teams in home attendance) and agreed to play in North Charleston Coliseum for the next few seasons.

So yes, despite North Charleston Coliseum being a "neutral site", College of Charleston will have a hometown advantage.  But at least it's a fifteen minute drive or bus ride from George Street to the North Charleston Coliseum, unlike the seven minute walk from VCU to the Richmond Coliseum, another #CAAHoops "neutral site".

So what will the CAA Tournament be like this year.  UNCW is the favorite, having finished first in the regular season with a 15-3 record, just like they did in the 2002-03 season.  College of Charleston is the #2 seed, having finished with a 14-4 record.   Both teams should bring a good number of fans and you figure the North Charleston Coliseum, which seats a little over 13,000, should be at least half full, which is a lot better than the 3000 attendance figure for the 2016 CAA Championship game between UNCW and Hofstra in Baltimore.

As I look at the matchups, the play in games favor the higher seeds.  #7 James Madison swept #10 Drexel during the regular season, as did #8 Hofstra against #9 Delaware.    If both of those games go to form, which they should, JMU will play #2 CofC and Hofstra will play UNCW in the second round.  CofC swept JMU, though the game at Harrisonburg was decided by only two points.  Meanwhile, the Seahawks swept the Pride, but both were close games throughout, with UNCW winning both by single digits.

I think the best chance for an upset is in the quarterfinals where #3 Towson split the regular season series with #6 Northeastern and John Davis, who will be missing the CAA tournament due to a truly sad incident while visiting his family in Philadelphia, played in both those games.   The most entertaining matchup will be #5 Elon vs. #4 William and Mary, as both teams can put up points (William and Mary is second in CAA in scoring offense at 81.7 points per game, while Elon is fourth at 75.4 points per game).

Honestly, I think UNCW has a very hard road to repeating as champion.   They will likely get Hofstra in the quarterfinal round, which is a rematch of the 2016 CAA Tournament Championship, won by UNCW in overtime.  UNCW won both games this season, but both were close games as UNCW won each game by single digits,  In their 84-76 home win, UNCW was only up by three, 75-72 with less than a minute left before C.J. Bryce hit a three pointer to put the game away.   In UNCW's road win over Hofstra, the Seahawks were only up one point, 77-76 with forty two seconds left before scoring the final six points in an 83-76 win.

Hofstra matches up very well for one main reason.  The Pride are third in the CAA in turnovers per game, only behind UNCW and Charleston, only averaging 10.8 turnovers per game.   Given Hofstra is second in the CAA in scoring, scoring 77.3 points per game, again only behind UNCW, the two games with UNCW have been predictably high scoring.

So here are my predictions.  In the Pillow Fight play in games on Friday, JMU takes down Drexel, Hofstra defeats Delaware.   In the Quarterfinals on Saturday, the afternoon session will see two exciting high scoring games.  UNCW barely holds off Hofstra, though I would not be surprised if Hofstra won that game.  In the other afternoon session quarterfinal, Elon squeaks by William and Mary.   In the evening session quarterfinals, College of Charleston handles James Madison, while Northeastern pulls off the upset against Towson.

In the semifinals, UNCW downs Elon in another high scoring game while College of Charleston ends Northeastern's run in the other semifinal.  In the final, I like College of Charleston, because a) they play excellent defense and b) the Cougars do not turn the ball over, which is what UNCW predicates their play on to win games, which they have done so well this season.  But the Cougars keep the mistakes at a minimum and CofC wins in a relatively low scoring affair in the high sixties, low seventies.

No matter what happens, it should be a lot of fun. It will be my tenth CAA Tournament.  My color analyst, aka my older son Matthew, my good friend Tieff and I will be in Section 113, Row A, seats 1-3.  Come visit us starting tomorrow night at 6:00 PM as Hofstra takes on Delaware.

March Madness.  Nothing like it and nothing like being back at the CAA Tournament.

CAAHoops - Lovely to see you again, my friend.

A New Year Ends An Old Streak (Recap of Northeastern vs George Mason)

Every once in a while, there’s a match up on the schedule that you circle when it first comes out, and feel just isn’t going to end well, for some reason. The CAA opener between George Mason and Northeastern this past Thursday was one of those games.

I knew that Northeastern expected to get their senior leader Jonathan Lee back from a foot injury a week or two in advance of the game. And I knew that there would be a small crowd on a weeknight in January, with the students home for winter break. Likewise, I’ve watched all season as Mason failed to defend the three point line, a place that Lee and Northeastern’s leading scorer during Lee’s absence, Joel Smith, both excel. Even worse, I realized that the Huskies were the last CAA team to come to Fairfax and win, in the final home game of the 2010 season, before Mason completed back-to-back perfect 9-0 home CAA performances. Would Northeastern be the bookend to that streak?

The game started a little slowly, with the Patriots trailing 4-0 at the 17:43 mark before redshirt junior Johnny Williams stuck back an Anali Okoloji miss for the home team’s first field goal. Quincy Ford immediately responded with a three-pointer to make it 7-2 Huskies. From there, Sherrod Wright went on a personal 9-2 run over the next two minutes to make it 11-9 in favor of George Mason -- aided by 3 Northeastern turnovers.

A beautiful pass from sophomore point guard Corey Edwards led to a Marko Gujanicic uncontested layup. Then, Jonathan Arledge turned an offensive rebound into another basket, stretching the lead to 15-9 before a Reggie Spencer layup broke the run.

The next four minutes saw more of a defensive struggle, as steals, turnovers, fouls, and missed shots by both teams slowed the pace up, with the score 20-16 Patriots at the under-8 media timeout. Out of the timeout, the Huskies scored 4 quick points to tie the game, but then Edwards found reserve guard Vertrail Vaughns all alone in the corner, and Vaughns knifed through the defense for a contested reverse layup. The shot seemed to give the slumping Vaughns some much-needed confidence, and he connected from long distance on the next possession,

But every time Mason got the lead, Northeastern had an answer. A pair of Ford free throws and a three-pointer by Jonathan Lee (20 points) from Ford tied the game yet again, with 4:58 to go in the half. From there, the Huskies offense experienced a drought that saw them score only three free throws and then one layup with 2 seconds to go, but with Edwards on the bench with two fouls, the Patriots offense slowed. Mason was only able to stretch the lead to 37-30 at the half.

Several things stood out to me in the first half, as I looked for signs of game-by-game improvement from George Mason in what has been a frustrating season. The biggest positive was the performance of Mason’s forwards, especially Jonathan Arledge and Erik Copes. Both have had their struggled catching and holding onto loose balls, whether in the post, at the rim, or on the floor, and yet they showed very good hands Thursday, as Arledge was good for 9 rebounds and 2 steals, and Copes for 9 rebounds and 3 blocks.

The second half began ominously, as Northeastern sank their first three shots, while Johnny Williams committed his third foul just 31 seconds into the half. A wide open three ball by Edwards off a beautiful kickout from Copes temporarily maintained some separation for the Patriots, 42-37, but the Huskies had returned from the locker room with increased intensity, while the Patriots seemed to have lost theirs. Arledge missed a dunk, which led to a Lee three-pointer in transition, and then David Walker tied it with a dunk at 16:14.

Out of the first media timeout, the Patriots showed better passing and better defense, forcing two Northeastern turnovers and stretching the lead to 50-44, with Wright doing the lion’s share.

Northeastern called a timeout with a little over 13 minutes remaining, and the game began to shift. Allen, spelling Edwards at the point, turned it over three times, and Walker assisted on three straight baskets as the Huskies tied the game up once more, at 52-all with 9:57 to play.

It seemed by now that Northeastern had found a strategy to break down the George Mason defense, and the pattern would repeat itself many more times: Drive toward the basket, then pass out to the perimeter, where at least one jump-shooter would be wide open as the Patriots defense collapsed inward, then never reset.

As the second half progressed, it seemed that the visitors from Boston couldn’t miss, but for a while, the home team hung right with them. Vaughns (twice) and Edwards traded three pointers with Zach Stahl (twice) and Demetrios Pollard, while Wright chipped in two for Mason and Stahl converted two free throws and a two.

The lead changed hands several times, until Northeastern went ahead for good, 65-63, on Stahl’s three ball off a kick-out from Quincy Ford (18 points) with 4:56 to play. Mason was helpless to stop the barrage, despite two Paul Hewitt timeouts, as the visitors suddenly went ahead 73-63. Northeastern would finish the game shooting 64% in the second half, including 6-of-9 on three point attempts.

Suddenly confronted with a ten-point hole, the Patriots seemed to get the message, and picked up their intensity, as they took 11 field goal attempts in the final 3 minutes, but they were simply out of time and Mason was forced to start giving fouls. After an Allen layup, they didn’t score another point until Wright’s pair of free throws (19 points) with 49 seconds to play broke the ice. The 6’9” Arledge made it 78-72 on his second three three-pointer of the season with 23 seconds remaining, but the Patriots could get no closer.

The Huskies (6-7, 1-0) made their last six free throws, winning 84-74, and putting up a very impressive 54 points in the second half against a Patriots squad that had come in holding opponents to a CAA low 64 points per game. After only losing one home game in the previous two-plus seasons, Mason (7-6, 0-1) has now lost back-to-back games at the Patriot Center.

All the more frustrating for me personally was that I saw some very good signs from individual players, before the game got out of hand. Corey Edwards has continued to develop as Mason’s starting point guard, finishing with 7 assists and 0 turnovers. The sophomore is now averaging 9 points, 3.5 assists, 1.5 steals, and only 1.8 turnovers in roughly 24 minutes a game over his last 4 games. Jonathan Arledge has struggled in the past with how to use his very long arms to play good defense without getting caught reaching in/around/over his man, but he showed improving skills around and above the rim on offensive and defense (evidenced by his 9 rebounds and 9 rebounds). Redshirt junior Vertrail Vaughns, who offered instant offense off the bench as a freshman (over 49% on treys) and averaged 8.8 points a season ago, finally reminded Mason fans what he can do, breaking out of a season-long slump with 13 points on 5-11 shooting.

As for Northeastern, I was most impressed by 6’5” freshman Zach Stahl, who finished 5 out of 8 from the field, including 2-for-2 on three pointers and 3-for-3 at the line, for a career high 15 points in 20 minutes of play. If Stahl can become a consistent fourth option to complement Ford, Lee, and Smith, the Huskies are going to be a very dangerous team in a weak year for the CAA.

Ugly, But Effective for Northeastern (Recap of William and Mary vs. Northeastern CAA Tournament Quarterfinal)

In the First Round of the CAA Tournament, often you get games that are not aesthically pleasing and are often downright rockfights. Such was the case in the first game of the Friday evening session between #10 seeded William and Mary and #7 seeded Northeastern.

In the first five minutes, the Huskies went out to an 11-4 lead.  The The Tribe had hit their first shot, a three pointer by Brandon Britt, which gave them their only lead of the game at 3-2.  But then William and Mary proceeded to miss their next six shots and turn the ball over three times. Meanwhile, Quincy Ford was showing the crowd why he was named to the CAA All Rookie team, scoring six of the first eleven Northeastern points.

Northeastern then extended the lead to ten, 20-10 with about six and half minutes left.  But after only hitting on four of their first seventeen shots, William and Mary hit on five of their next eight shots while Northeastern went cold from the field, as they only hit one of their nine three point attempts.  The score at the half was 25-22.  It looked like the first team to fifty would win the game.

A year ago, I watched from the Richmond Coliseum stands as Quinn McDowell set an all time CAA Tournament record for point scored in a game with thirty five.  McDowell led his team to an upset of sixth seeded James Madison in the last game of the evening session. It was one of the greatest individual performances I had ever seen in a college basketball game. It was not the first time though that I had witnessed McDowell have a great night.  A few weeks earlier, McDowell had twenty eight points in a classic overtime game vs. Hofstra.

A year later and McDowell has been a shell of himself.  Coming into the game, McDowell was averaging three points less than last season.  His shooting percentage has been way down; 39.9 percent as opposed to 47.5 percent the year before. His three point shooting is significantly down as well; 34.3 percent as opposed to 45.5 percent last season.  Finally, his free throw shooting is also way down; 77 percent as opposed 86.6 percent last season.  He's taking the same number of shots and playing the same number of minutes as last season.

And I could see this from my seat on press row on the court of the Richmond Coliseum.  Though he was passing well (he had five assists), his shot was way off.  He missed four of his first five shots on the night.  And the man I saw last year drain free throw after free throw at the Mack Center and here on this court, missed all three free throws on the night.  It was as if I was watching a completely different player.

That was probably also the difference in the game.  As well as Tim Rusthoven and Marcus Thornton played, they were the only two players for the Tribe to score in double figures.  McDowell, a year removed from scoring thirty five points on this court, scored a total of six points on the night.

Meanwhile, Northeastern had more than enough to win the game.  They went out to a 14-5 run to start the second half to go up 39-27.  William and Mary would only get as close as three points, 46-43 ironically on a layup by McDowell, his last points on the night.

Ford led three Huskies' players in double figures with eighteen points, while Jonathan Lee had eleven points and Joel Smith had ten points. What makes Northeastern impressive is that their lone senior only played three minutes on the evening.  The Huskies would hit fourteen second half free throws and go on to win the game 57-49.

As I said, the first one to fifty won the game.  For Northeastern it was ugly, but effective.

As Usual, Havoc Prevails (Recap of Northeastern vs. VCU CAA Quarterfinal)

Coach Bill Coen had a huge task before him on Saturday evening.  His Northeastern team was playing VCU in the Richmond Coliseum in a "neutral" site game.  But as most people who follow the CAA know, that's about as neutral as Rush Limbaugh being a moderator in a Planned Parenthood debate. Still, the man who's suit jacket started a Twitter account would have his team ready, especially after a tough first round win over William and Mary.

The Richmond Coliseum was a sea of yellow as the Evening Session was sold out.  An announced crowd of 11,200 roared as Shaka Smart walked on the court.  The inventor of "Havoc" has a rock star following with Rams' fans, not unlike Anthony Grant did when he was the previous coach.  The difference is the VCU administration made a huge investment after last season's Final Four run to keep Smart here hopefully for the forseeable future.

The Rams started out strong, quickly jumping out to an 11-3 lead as they forced three quick turnovers on the Huskies.  Coen called timeout as he needed to find some way to calm his team down and quiet the raucous, but "neutral" Coliseum crowd.

Much to their credit, Northeastern hung around, due in their large part to their defense.  VCU continued to force a lot of turnovers on the Huskies, but couldn't  cash in.  Over the last seven minutes and forty two seconds of the first half, the Rams scored a total of three points.   As a result, what was a nine point lead slowly whittled away.   Jonathan Lee buried a three pointer to tie the game at twenty six at the half.

The great thing about the CAA Tournament is all the wonderful bands.   ODU, Drexel, JMU and Towson all have good bands.  George Mason is probably a step above them and VCU is right there with Doc Nix and the boys.

At the start of the second, VCU went out to a lead but Northeastern kept within striking distance.  When the Huskies weren't turning the ball over, they had success scoring against the Rams.  Northeastern shot nearly fifty four percent in the second half and fifty one percent for the game. The score was only 40-34 with fourteen and a half minutes remaining.

But then the walls came crashing down as VCU turned up "Havoc".  The Rams forced five Huskies' turnovers in the span of eight minutes.  This time, the Rams cashed in on those opportunities as their bench spurred them on.  Rob Brandenberg and Treveon Graham combined for twenty two points in a 24-9 run, which included five three pointers.   Brandenberg nailed three shots from beyond the arc and the score was 64-43 with about seven and a half minutes left.

Northeastern did not quit and actually cut the lead to eight, 71-63 with a little over a minute left.  But the hole was too big for the Huskies to climb out from and the Rams went onto win 75-65.   Brandenberg had nineteen points and Graham added eighteen to lead the way for VCU.  The Rams forced twenty five turnovers and their bench outscored the Huskies Bench 46-4 on the night.

Northeastern gave a spirited effort.  Lee, Joel Smith and Quincy Ford, all who are coming back next season, combined for fifty points on 17 of 35 shooting.  Coen has a terrific nucleus to work from next season.

But in this game, that nucleus just wasn't enough in the end.  Havoc and a three point shooting frenzy was just too much for the Huskies.

The Colossal Colonial Ratings (CCR) for the Week of February 6th

With three weeks and five games left in the CAA regular season, there is now a clear line of delineation between the top four teams in the Colonial and the rest of the teams that will likely be battling out on Pillow Fight Friday, as @VCUPav puts it.  Two games separate fourth place Old Dominion from fifth place Georgia State.  So with that in mind, lets go "Down on the Corner" to get this CCR started.

1. Drexel (19-5, 11-2 CAA) - There is a three way tie in the CAA standings but the Dragons have the tiebreaker having beat VCU and George Mason (they also don't play either team again this season).  Drexel's also seems to have the easiest remaining schedule; at James Madison, home to Hofstra and William and Mary, BracketBuster game at Cleveland State, home to James Madison and at ODU.
   
   The Dragons, the hottest team in the CAA with eleven straight wins, are there usual defensive selves; first in scoring defense, third in field goal percentage defense, first in three point field goal percentage defense with a scary 25.9% three pointers allowed and of course, first in rebounding margin.  But what has made Drexel so effective this season is their offense is so much better than last season.  They are second in field goal percentage, first in three point field goal  percentage, third in assist to turnover ratio and still first in free throw percentage at 73.7 percent.  
2. VCU (20-5, 11-2 CAA) - The Rams are the second hottest team in the CAA, winners of nine straight and are tied with the Dragons and the Patriots for first place.  However, their remaining schedule is the toughest of the three teams; home to Towson, then at ODU and George Mason, home BracketBuster game vs. Northern Iowa, at UNCW, then home to George Mason to finish the season.
   
   The Rams commitment to forcing teams to turn the ball over has been what's most impressive to me.  In the two games I saw them play vs. Hofstra and Delaware they won the turnover battle in both games by a combined +12 margin (31-19).  Not surprisingly, the Rams are first in the CAA in turnover margin at +5.44 per game.  They are also first in assist to turnover ratio.
3. George Mason (19-6, 11-2 CAA) - The Patriots fell into a tie for first place after losing at Delaware, but they bounced back at home to knock ODU out of a four way tie for first.  Their schedule is not the easiest as well; home to Hofstra, at UNCW, home to VCU, home BracketBuster game vs. Lamar, then at Northeastern and at VCU to finish the regular season.
   
   George Mason has been equally as balanced as Drexel.  They are first in field goal percentage at 45.4% per game while second in field goal percentage defense at 38.6 percent.   But to me, here is the most impressive stat.  They lead the CAA in scoring at 70.7 points per game despite being tenth in three point field goals made per game with 4.6 per game. The Patriots are averaging over fifty percent on their two point field goals.
4. Old Dominion (15-10, 10-3 CAA) -  Despite the road loss to the Patriots, the Monarchs have won eight of their last ten games.  The rest of their schedule is not exactly easy; away at William and Mary, home vs. VCU, home to UNCW, road BracketBuster game vs. Missouri State, road game at Georgia State, home to Drexel.  The game against the Panthers  may very well have a #4 seed on the line.
   
   The Monarchs are second in the CAA assists and third in steals. So it's not surprising they they are third in turnover margin in the Colonial.  Those categories make up for the fact they are tenth in field goal percentage and allow them to be fifth in scoring margin in the CAA.
5. Georgia State (16-8, 8-5 CAA) - If there is any team that has a shot of breaking into the top four of the CAA, it would be the Panthers. Their remaining schedule favors them; home to Northeastern and Delaware; away at James Madison, home BracketBuster game vs Texas San Antonio, home vs. ODU and away at William and Mary.  As previously noted, that home game against the Monarchs may be huge.
   
   The Panthers were impressive in their win this past Saturday vs. Hofstra.  Georgia State, behind Eric Buckner's league leading 3.3 blocks per game, leads the CAA in blocks per game.  The Panthers also lead the CAA in field goal percentage defense, second in steals, second in turnover margin and assist to turnover ratio.  
6. Northeastern (11-12, 7-6 CAA) -  The Huskies were right in the thick of things until losing their last two games against two of the top tier teams, Drexel and VCU.  Their schedule makes it unlikely for them to finish any better than fifth; road games at Georgia State and William and Mary, home to Towson, then BracketBuster home game vs. Stony Brook, home to George Mason, then at Delaware.
   
   What also doesn't bode well for the Huskies is that statistically they are in the lower half of the CAA in most categories.  They are fifth in the CAA in field goal percentage, third in three point field goal percentage, yet the Huskies are tenth in scoring offense at 61.3 points per game.  Perhaps it's because Northeastern averages the second most turnovers in the CAA next to Towson (15.5 per game). 
7. Delaware (11-12, 7-6 CAA) - The Blue Hens have righted themselves, winning their last two games including a home win over then first place George Mason.  Delaware's schedule also favors them for a late season run; home to UNCW, then road games at George Mason and Hofstra; BracketBuster home game vs. Hampton, then a road game at Towson and home game vs. Northeastern.
   
   The Blue Hens are statistically strong in several CAA categories; third in scoring offense, fourth in free throw percentage, fourth in field goal percentage defense, third in blocked shots.  Unfortunately, they struggle in assists and creating turnovers.  They are dead last in assists and steals, tenth in turnover margin and eleventh in assist to turnover ratio. 
8. UNCW (9-14, 5-8 CAA) - The Seahawks ended a four game losing streak by defeating William and Mary at home.  Hopefully the win will give them confidence with a tough remaining schedule; road game at Delaware, home game vs. George Mason, road game at Old Dominion, then BracketBuster road game at Manhattan, home game vs. VCU and road game at Hofstra.
   
   UNCW is fourth in the CAA in field goal percentage at 42.5%, fifth in three point field goal percentage at 33.3% and third in three point field goal percentage defense. The problem is they are only eighth in field goal percentage defense as they allow teams to score fifty percent of their two point field goal attempts.  
9. James Madison (10-15, 3-10 CAA) - The Dukes have lost six of their last seven games. However, there may be two wins on the horizon since they play the Tigers twice. Their remaining schedule is home to Drexel, at Towson, home to Georgia State, BracketBuster road game at Detroit, road game at Drexel, then home to Towson.
   
   It's the same old problem for James Madison; lack of defense. The Dukes are fourth in the CAA in scoring offense, first in assists and fourth in assists to turnover ratio and turnover margin.  Yet JMU is  eleventh in scoring defense, tenth in field goal percentage defense, eleventh in three point field goal percentage defense, eleventh in rebounding margin and eleventh in block shots.
10. Hofstra (8-17, 2-11 CAA) - The Pride couldn't keep the momentum after defeating Towson as they lost at home to Georgia State.  The first two games on their remaining schedule are the hardest; road games at George Mason and Drexel, home to Delaware, home BracketBuster game vs. Siena, at William and Mary, home to UNCW.
    
    The best indicator of how many close games Hofstra has lost is scoring margin, as the Pride are -1.1.  Hofstra is third in free throw percentage, fourth in steals, fifth in turnover margin and fifth in offensive rebounds.  Where they are struggling is next to last in three point field goals made at 4.3 per game, field goal percentage, ninth at 40.9 percent and ninth in field goal percentage defense at 43.9 percent.
11. William and Mary (4-21, 2-11 CAA) - The Tribe have lost eight games in a row.  However, they have a chance to improve their record as they have four of their five remaining conference games at home; home games vs. ODU and Northeastern, road game vs. Drexel, road BracketBuster game vs. VMI, home games vs. Hofstra and Georgia State.
    
    Statistically, it's been a very bad year for the Tribe.  They are ranked in the 300's in the nation in several categories, 321st in points per game - 59.6, 322nd in rebounds per game 30.4, 329th in assists per game - 10.0 and 312th in field goal percentage at 40 percent.  However, they can shoot their free throws as they are 2nd in the CAA at 72 percent and they are third in the CAA in three pointers per game at 6.7.
12. Towson (1-24, 1-12 CAA) - The Tigers ended their NCAA record winless streak when they defeated UNCW at home.   It will be tough for them to get another win since four of their remaining six games are on the road; at VCU, home to James Madison, at Northeastern, at New Hampshire, home to Delaware and at James Madison.
    
    As bad as it has been statistically for William and Mary, it's been worse for Towson; dead last in the NCAA in points per game, 49.8, next to last in assists per game at 8.0, second to last in field goal percentage at 36.8 percent.  They also average about 19 turnovers per game.  The bright side is they can rebound their misses.  They are second in the CAA in offensive rebound percentage and 28th in the country in that category.

The Colossal Colonial Ratings (CCR) for the Week of January 16

Another week has gone by in the CAA and the standings are getting a little clearer.  There are now three teams with a 5-1 record; Georgia State, George Mason and Old Dominion.  Another three teams have a 4-2 record; VCU, Drexel and Northeastern.  There is the middle of the road; UNCW and Delaware both 3-3.  Finally, the bottom tier is becoming pretty apparent; William and Mary is 2-4, James Madison is 1-5, Hofstra and Towson are both 0-6.

The next eleven days are critical as Dave Fairbank points out in which CAA teams are about "to dive into the competitive equivalent of running around to multiple holiday meals at various in-laws, step-families and blood relatives who may or may not be playing with a full deck."  Most Coloinal teams will play five games in eleven days.  The only exceptions are William and Mary and VCU who will play five games in ten days, which includes their game on ESPNU Thursday night at the Siegel Center (Tribe=Sacrificial Lambs).

With all this in mind, "I'm Lookin Out My Backdoor" at the latest Colossal Colonial Ratings, aka the CCR.

1. Georgia State (13-4. 5-1 CAA) - Yes, we perfectly know that if the season ended today,  George Mason would finish first since they have beaten both Georgia State and Old Dominion.  However, the season doesn't end today, so we give the number one ranking to the Panthers.  They are the team that's first in the CAA in both field goal percentage defense and assists to turnover ratio, two categories statistically proven to be the mark of championship teams in the CAA.
   
   Plus, we have to give props to a coach, Ron Hunter, who, despite having his team hold the opposition (Towson) to forty two points, was so unhappy with his team's effort he tweeted "I love my basketball team, but tomorrow, practice will be epic. Bring your lunch pail."  I can't wait to see Georgia State in person when they play Hofstra on February 4th at the Mack Center.
2. George Mason (13-4, 5-1 CAA) - The Patriots finally suffered their first loss in conference at Drexel last week.  Based on their schedule, they may not lose another game until their last two games of the regular season; road games at Northeastern and VCU and they don't play Georgia State again.  The Patriots are first in the CAA in field goal percentage offense and second in field goal percentage defense.  They also lead the CAA in blocks per game (having Erik Copes and Mike Morrison helps) and assists per game.
   
   Interesting statistic;  George Mason is only one of four teams in the CAA with not a single player in the top ten in minutes played (the others are Old Dominion, UNCW and William and Mary).  Yet while averaging only 30.6 minutes per game, Ryan Pearson is third in the CAA in scoring at 17.4 points per game.  Both Mike Moore, 20.4 points per game and Devon Saddler, 18.6 points per game average 35.5 minutes per game, basically five minutes more per game than Pearson.
3. VCU (13-5, 4-2 CAA) -  I got to see the Rams live again at Newark this past Saturday and once again, I left very impressed.   The Rams are third in the CAA in scoring defense, allowing only 59.7 points per game.  Of course, "Havoc" plays a large part in their play, as they are first in steals in 9.6 per game.  Finally, in Shaka Smart's favorite category, turnover margin, VCU is again first in the CAA with + 5.67.
   
   Briante Weber makes the most of his minutes played.  Weber averages twenty minutes per game, yet leads the CAA in steals at 2.5 steals per game.  The other top fourteen players in the steals category rounded off average thirty or minutes with the exceptions of Quincy Ford (twenty six minutes) and Josh Micheaux (nearly twenty nine minutes).
4. Drexel (12-5, 4-2 CAA) -  The Dragons have rebounded nicely winning three games in a row against good competition; VCU, George Mason and UNCW.   Damion Lee, Frantz Massenat, Chris Fouch and Samme Givens usually get the most attention, but Derrick Thomas has played well of late.  In his last three games, Thomas has averaged twelve points a game and has shot thirteen of twenty five from the field and seven of nine from the free throw line.
   
   Perhaps this is "The Year of the Dragon" because Drexel is first in the CAA in free throw shooting percentage at 73.1 percent.  Yes, the team that's since it has been in the CAA has never finished shooting from the line higher than 68.3 percent (2006-07 season) is shooting 73.1 percent on the season.
5. Old Dominion (10-8, 5-1 CAA) - The Monarchs have played only two teams above .500 in conference so far and they have split those games; won at Northeastern and lost at George Mason.  Still ODU is winning with its trademark defense as the Monarchs are fourth in the CAA in scoring defense at 62.9 points per game, third in steals at nine per game and second in rebounding margin.
   
   Trian Iliadis has stepped up his game for the Monarchs.  Once considered mainly a three point shooter, Iliadis has added to his game. He averages 3.4 rebounds, 2.7 assists and is one of the leaders in the CAA in steals at 1.7 steals per game. Strangely, he is only shooting twenty five percent from beyond the arc this season.
6. Northeastern (8-8, 4-2 CAA) - The Huskies had a nice week, winning both their games over Hofstra and William and Mary.   The most impressive stat is the team averaging the second most turnovers in the CAA at nearly sixteen per game had only one turnover in the last fifteen minutes versus the Pride.   They also create turnovers as they are fourth in the CAA in steals, averaging eight per game.
   
   Jonathan Lee has been huge the past four games for the Huskies.  Lee is averaging nearly eighteen points per game and has shot twenty five for forty three from the field (fifty eight percent).  Lee is also averaging nearly five rebounds per game.  Lee is only six foot two inches tall.
7. UNCW ( 7-9, 3-3 CAA) - The Seahawks faced stiff competition the past week which saw both opponents score in the mid to high seventies and the Seahawks lost both games handily.  UNC Wilimington defends the three pointer well as the Seahawks are second in the CAA in three point field goal percentage defense.  It's been their two point field goal percentage defense that has been a problem.  Opponents are shooting two point field goals at a fifty two percent clip.
   
   Adam Smith gets most of the press of the UNCW freshman class, but K.K. Simmons is having an impressive rookie season as well.  Simmons has averaged thirteen points per game over his last four games.  Simmons also shoots eighty two percent from the line and has hit eighteen of his last twenty one free throws.
8. Delaware (7-9,3-3 CAA) - The Blue Hens were another team that went 0-2 for the week. Delaware lost two games at home; in overtime to Old Dominion and by thirteen to VCU.  The Blue Hens have been successful largely due to their field goal percentage defense, third in the CAA at 38.4 percent.  The Blue Hens' problem has been turnovers as they are tenth in the CAA in turnover margin at -3.5.
   
   Jamelle Hagins and Devon Saddler are the two main reasons why Delaware has been competitive in the CAA this season. But Josh Brinkley has been a force lately. Over his last three games, Brinkley has averaged fourteen points and ten rebounds per game.  He is shooting fifty five percent from the field on the season.
9. William and Mary (4-14, 2-4 CAA) - The Tribe went 1-1 last week as part of their three game road trip that concludes at VCU tomorrow night.  Yes, their win was over Towson, but they were ahead early against Northeastern before the Huskies rallied.   W&M is at the bottom of most CAA categories sans free throw shooting.  The Tribe are fourth in the CAA at 71.9 percent.
   
   I am starting to really wonder if Quinn McDowell is playing hurt.  After his record setting performance in the first round of the CAA Tournament last season, McDowell has struggled since.   His average points per game is down three points from last season. McDowell's field goal percentage is way down ; it was 47.5 percent last season, this season it's 39.4 percent.  His shooting from three point range is also significantly down; 45.5 percent last season, this season 37.2 percent.  The Tribe need the re-emergence of the Mighty Quinn.
10. James Madison (8-9,1-5 CAA) - The Dukes went 0-2 last week. They were drubbed at VCU and outscored at home by George Mason.   They dug themselves holes in both games.  The Dukes were down nine at the half to the Rams and down by fifteen at the half at home to the Patriots.  Part of that has to do with rebounding. They were outrebounded 42-26 to VCU as the Rams had fourteen offensive rebounds.  JMU is tenth in the CAA in rebounding margin.
    
    A.J. Davis is doing his best to help out the Dukes.  Davis has averaged seventeen points and three steals in his last three games.  He is also sixteen of twenty one from the free throw line in his last three games.
11. Hofstra (6-11, 0-6 CAA) - The Pride had leads in the second half of both of their games against Northeastern and Old Dominion last week, only to lose both games.  Offensively, the two halves were completely dissimilar.  Hofstra shot sixty percent against Northeastern in the second half, but only shot twenty seven percent vs. ODU in the second half.  What was consistent was their lack of defense in the second half.  The Huskies shot fifty eight percent in the second half while the Monarchs shot fifty percent in the second half.
    
    Nathaniel Lester has played much more consistently lately.  In his last three games, Lester has averaged nineteen points per game and has shot twenty of twenty four from the line.  Lester has scored in double figures in ten straight games and has three double doubles in those ten games.
12. Towson (0-18, 0-6 CAA) - The Tigers played quite respectably in both their losses last week. Towson actually had leads against both William and Mary and Georgia State before losing.  Ron Hunter commended the Tigers on their play saying that Towson came out with more effort than his own team.
    
    Robert Nwankwo continues to play hard for Towson.  Against the big front line of Georgia State, Nwakwo had seventeen points, thirteen rebounds, six blocks and four steals. He also had eleven points, eight rebounds, three blocks and two steals against William and Mary.   Nwankwo is doing everything he can to help Towson find that elusive first win.

A Season Is Not Determined By Luck (Recap of Hofstra vs.Northeastern)

Over the years, there is luck involved in college basketball. I have seen several miracle half court shots go in.      Many times have I seen a buzzer beater to win a game.  There are strange bounces and questionable last second calls that have decided games.  And often I have seen as much bad luck as there is good luck.

But from my years experience of watching college basketball live, luck is not the overall determining factor in a team's overall success, whether a team is good or a team is a bad.  There are statistical reasons why teams are successful and why teams are not successful.  And if you watch the game closely, you can often see that play out on the court.  Good teams make their own luck and bad teams make their own luck too.

Case in point - Several basketball experts said Hofstra had a lot of luck going 14-4 in conference last season and 21-12 overall.   Ken Pomeroy's luck metric had  Hofstra as the sixth luckiest team in basketball in the 2011-12 season.  Furthermore, as John Templon of Big Apple Buckets stated on his site, Pomeroy's statistic noted that Hofstra won four more games than they should have last season.

This was noted in an article on this site called "Hofstra's 2010-11 Success Was All About Skill".  In my article, I disputed Pomeroy's statistic based on other statistics, specifically assists to turnover ratio, turnover margin and free throw shooting; three categories that Hofstra excelled in last season.  The Pride excelled in close games as well with a 9-4 record in games decided by seven points or less.  I noted it was because they had more possessions and hit their free throws down the stretch.  Basically, they did the little things right to win a game.

A week ago, the New York Times Quad Blog did a statistical historical analysis of the last ten seasons of teams in the CAA, which Hofstra is of course a member.  The analysis showed "that field-goal percentage defense and assist-to-turnover ratio are the statistics most correlated with teams winning the Colonial Athletic Association tournament."

In that same article, Hofstra Coach Mo Cassara stated "The most important statistic to me — that I really value — is assist-to-turnovers.. That’s the thing that I emphasize the most and I think correlates directly with winning.”

Shaka Smart was then quoted later in that same article stating " We look at turnover margin."  He went on further to say,"Sometimes it’s as simple as if we can force around 20 turnovers and have somewhere under 12 turnovers ourselves, then that’s 8, 10 extra possessions, and that’s huge for us."

Needless to say, I was thrilled to read all of those things. You had statistical correlation of why teams are successful.  And two successful coaches who valued ball possession, to me the most important part of a team's success.

But now here we are, one season later.  Hofstra entered their game with Northeastern with as many losses in conference this season than all last season and a losing record overall.  And of course, people have commented that luck has reversed its fate on the Pride this season.

And this season certainly has not been about a lack of heart or lack of talent.  The Pride have beaten Iona, Cleveland State and LIU, three very good teams that all currently lead their conferences.  I personally saw all three of those games and Hofstra played with intensity, grit and showed a lot of skill.

However, I am here to tell you again, it's not luck that Hofstra was 6-10 overall going into this game.  It's in the stats.  And the game against the Huskies sadly proved it again.

When I got to the Mack Center about twenty minutes before tipoff last night, I could tell the energy was lacking in the building.  First, there was no pep band, no cheerleaders and no dance team there.  The Lions' Den student section was barely noticeable due to there being no undergrad classes in session. Being a school night, there weren't a lot of kids there, sans the CYO team playing at the half and my six year old son, aka my color analyst Matthew.  It felt empty in Hempstead, and I wondered how that would affect the home team.

But it was the road team that came out flat.  The Huskies looked horrible at the beginning, missing their first seven shots.  Meanwhile, the Pride came out with energy and scored the game's first nine points as Stephen Nwaukoni continued his recent improved play with two hard earned layups.

But the reason the old, tired cliche of basketball is a game of runs is used so often is that it is so true so often.  And sure enough, Northeastern responded back with a run of their own, scoring the next twelve points as Hofstra forgot how to score, missing four straight shots and turning the ball over twice.  Joel Smith had eight of those twelve Huskies' point as they went up 12-9 with a little over eleven minutes left in the half.

Nathaniel Lester's three point play tied the game at twelve.  And then both teams managed to struggle together as they each scored an additional twelve points over the last ten plus minutes.  The game was tied at twenty four at the half and rightfully so, since their stats were so much similar.  Same number of field goals made, nine.  Same number of three pointers made; two.  Same number of free throws made; four.  Neither team shot well from the field; Hofstra 34 percent, Northeastern 39 percent.

The fans weren't pleased with the first half.  One season ticket holder I know said "This game is hard to watch".  My friend Tieff said "It's bad playing worse."  My color analyst was even harsher with his criticism.  At the start of the second half, I asked him "What do you think of the game so far?"  Matthew covered his eyes and grimaced.

The second half was strange.  At times, Northeastern's 3-2 zone gave Hofstra fits, as the Pride turned the ball over three times in the first four and a half minutes.  Yet when they solved the Huskies' defense, they hit their shots, hitting ten of their first sixteen attempts in the second half, often easy layups in the paint .  With nine minutes left in the game, Hofstra was up 50-43.

In particular, Lester was having a huge second half for the Pride. He would score fourteen of his nineteen points in the second half.  He got help from Nwaukoni, who had seven second half points and David Imes who also had seven second half points. Based on a Newsday report, Mike Moore struggled with a groin injury all night and had only nine points, twelve less than his season average.

But the stats started adding up and were not in Hofstra's favor.  First, the Pride turned the ball over four times in the next five minutes. They would have sixteen turnovers on the game.  Meanwhile, Northeastern, the team that averaged the second most turnovers in the CAA coming into the game at sixteen per game, only had ten turnovers on the night and had only one turnover in the final fifteen minutes of the game.

Also,  the Huskies couldn't miss from the field down the stretch, or perhaps the Pride couldn't stop them.  Coming into the game, Hofstra's two point field goal percentage defense was an unseemly 50 percent.   And Northeastern took advantage over those last nine minutes.  During those final nine minutes, the Huskies would shoot eight of twelve from the field, all two point field goals.

Northeastern would tie the game at fifty six on a jumper by Jonathan Lee.  Lee scored nineteen of his twenty one points in the second half, as he hit big shot after big shot.  And if it wasn't Lee, it was Smith who came through for the Huskies. His old fashioned three point play tied the contest at sixty with a little less than two minutes remaining in the game.

After Quincy Ford put the Huskies up two with two free throws, Lester came back with a strong layup to tie the game at sixty two.  But just like their losses to Florida Atlantic and James Madison,  Hofstra would again feel the sting of a late jumper.  Lee hit one with ten seconds left to put Northeastern up 64-62.

But unlike those two previous games, this time the Pride  had more than enough time left to tie or win the game.  After a timeout, Nathaniel Lester drove up the court against the Huskies' pressure.  But he would dribble the ball off himself out of bounds.  Their last and most crushing turnover of the game. After Hofstra fouled Lee off the inbounds play, Lee missed the front end of an one and one.  The Pride grabbed the rebound, but Lester's half court shot fell way short.  Another close game, another Hofstra loss, 64-62. The Pride were now 0-5 in conference and 6-11 overall.

As DefiantlyDutch, Jerry Beach noted in a tweet, the Huskies would score on seventeen of their last nineteen possessions.  So despite Hofstra shooting sixty percent in the second half, Northeastern shot fifty eight percent.   And when Northeastern didn't hit a field goal down the stretch, they went to the line, hitting five of their seven free throws.

Coming into the game, Northeastern was tenth in the CAA in free throw shooting at 66.5 percent.  Last night, the Huskies shot 71.4 percent from the line, hitting fifteen of their twenty one free throws.  Meanwhile, Hofstra which was third in the CAA in free throw shooting at 71.5 percent, shot only eleven of seventeen last night, 64.7 percent.  Perhaps the free throw shooting was lucky in different ways for Hofstra and Northeastern.

But you couldn't say that about the turnover margin.  As mentioned Northeastern had ten turnovers, Hofstra sixteen. That meant several more possessions for the Huskies than the Pride.  In a two point game, you could definitely say that was the difference.

Hofstra had seventeen assists to sixteen turnovers. Coming into the game, Hofstra was ninth in the CAA in assist to turnover ratio at 0.7.  Last season, the Pride were first in the CAA at 1.3.  And last season Hofstra was third in the CAA in turnover margin at + 2.29 per game.  Entering the game last night, they were fifth at +.69 per game.

This season, the Pride are 1-6 in games decided by seven points or less. And based on the statistics, you can say that most of that has to do with assist to turnover ratio and two point field goal percentage defense.  It doesn't have to do with luck.

The 1,654 fans that were mostly quiet for the entire game left the arena seemingly numb.  They had already seen the last second losses to James Madison and Florida Atlantic.  Perhaps they knew when the game was close, the statistics didn't favor the home team.   It didn't again last night.

The Colossal Colonial Ratings (CCR) for Week of January 9 - Post Gauntlet

So,  CAA gauntlet week ended with Drexel's come from behind win at home over VCU on Sunday night.   There's only one undefeated team left in CAA conference play, George Mason.  Then there's a whole bunch of surprises at 3-1 and also surprises at 2-2.  Finally there is the back of the pack and one of those teams has as many losses in conference as they did all of last season.

So with the all the voodoo going on in the Colonial, it's only fitting that our Colossal Colonial Ratings, aka CCR, this week should be accompanied by the CCR song "I Put A Spell on You".  Remember the ratings are based on my rankings of how good the teams are, not necessarily their current standings in the league.  Over time though, the CCR will generally reflect their standings in the league.

1. George Mason (12-4, 4-0 CAA) - The Patriots pulled off one of the two sweeps by a team during a gauntlet week. First, they struggled with but eventually overwhelmed William and Mary.  Then the Patriots won impressively at Old Dominion.  Finally, in a dogfight in Fairfax, Mason held onto beat Georgia State.
   
   Mike Morrison was huge for Mason during gauntlet week.  In the three games, he averaged nearly thirteen points and ten rebounds per game.  He had a double double, fourteen points and fifteen rebounds vs. the Panthers stout front line.  Impressive.
2. Georgia State (11-4, 3-1 CAA) - The Panthers were only a few seconds away from pulling off an almost impossible task of sweeping Drexel, VCU and George Mason, the last two games on the road.  Still, a 2-1 showing was quite impressive for Georgia State.
   
   Jihad Ali was an important factor in the Panthers' success.  In the last three games, Ali has averaged fifteen points per game and was a perfect twelve for twelve from the line.  Ali has increased his free throw percentage from forty six percent last season to seventy three percent this season, which is an amazing improvement. 
3. Old Dominion (8-8, 3-1 CAA) - Rumors of the Monarchs demise have been greatly exaggerated.  The Monarchs had a solid 2-1 week   It wasn't pretty, but it was effective. They rallied to force overtime at James Madison, then beat the Dukes in overtime.  After struggling at home in a loss to Mason, the Monarchs completely crushed Towson, winning by thirty seven points.
   
   Chris Cooper has become the latest member in a long line of solid ODU forwards. Cooper is averaging a double double this season with 10.4 points and 10.3 rebounds.  Last season, Cooper only had 154 field goal attempts on the season.  This season, he already has 148 field goal attempts.
4. Drexel (10-5, 2-2 CAA) -  Things looked a little bleak at the start of the week for the Dragons.  They lost convincingly at Georgia State.   But then came the lock down of Towson at home,.60-27.   Then in a typical classic VCU-Drexel rockfight, the Dragons rallied to beat the Rams in what was a must win for Drexel.
   
   Frantz Massenat.has improved his games by leaps and bounds.  The sophomore has more than doubled his scoring from last season to 12.7 points per game. His three point field goal percentage is a very impressive 47 percent and he has increased his free throw shooting percentage from 61 percent last season to 73.5 percent this season.
5. VCU (11-5,.2-2 CAA) - The week started off promising for the Rams. They soundly defeated Hofstra.  But they ran into two defensive struggles and came out on the losing end both times; at home to Georgia State and at Drexel.  The second best free throw shooting team in the CAA shot an uncharacteristic 9 of 20 from the free throw line against the Dragons.
   
   Troy Daniels has become a major weapon off the bench for VCU.  In his last three games, Daniels has hit twelve three pointers while averaging thirteen points per game.  After only averaging four plus minutes per game last season, Daniels is averaging twenty one minutes per game this season, while shooting forty percent from three.
6. UNCW (7-7, 3-1 CAA) -  The Seahawks were the only other team besides the Patriots to successfully run the gauntlet last week.  They won at home over Delaware, then traveled to Boston and beat Northeastern.  Finally they held on at Trask to defeat Hofstra. And they did it with offense, averaging seventy nine points per game.
   
   Freshman Adam Smith has created a lot of buzz with his outstanding play so far this season.  But my favorite Seahawk has been for a while Keith Rendleman.  Rendleman was a horse last week for UNCW.  He averaged twenty points and twelve rebounds in those three wins while shooting 19 of 31 from the field and 22 of 26 from the line. Definitely all first team CAA material.
7. Delaware (7-7, 3-1 CAA) - Imagine you're 3-1 in conference and that only gets you seventh place in these ratings.  That's not a knock on the Blue Hens, just speaks of the depth of this conference.  They got off to a bad start losing a tough game at UNCW. Then they barely just held on beating Hofstra at home 67-66.  Delaware then toughed one out beating William and Mary on the road.  All in all a good week for the Blue Hens.
   
   We love double double machines here at the College Hardwood.  Thus we have to give a lot of love to Jamelle Hagins.  Hagins averaged eighteen points and twelve rebounds in the three games last week.  He also shot an impressive 21 of 35 and is shooting 56.6 percent from the field this season.  And oh yeah, he averaged three blocks per game last week.
8. Northeastern (6-8, 2-2 CAA) - The Huskies had a good week overall, going 2-1.  They won at Towson, then lost a close game at home to UNCW, then had another road win at James Madison.  The Huskies seem to like the road, as five of their six wins have come away from home. Perhaps they should check into a hotel when playing in Boston.
   
   Mike Litos loves Quincy Ford, another talented freshman in the CAA this season.  And why not, because Ford stepped up his game during gauntlet week. He averaged nearly fourteen points per game while shooting 16 of 31 from the field.  Ford also had ten steals in those three games.
9. James Madison (8-7, 1-3 CAA) - The Dukes were one of three teams that got swept last week. It was how they got swept that was so agonizing.  JMU had ODU beaten but missed several key free throws down the stretch.  The Monarchs forced overtime and eventually won.  Then they rallied in the second half vs. William and Mary, only to fade down the stretch and lose to the Tribe.  Finally, a depleted Dukes roster lost at home to Northeastern.
   
   A.J. Davis has been a solid addition to JMU.  In his last three games, including a win over Hampton last night, Davis has averaged eighteen points, six rebounds and four steals.  Davis though might want to work on his three point shooting.  In his last five games, he is 1 of 19 from beyond the arc.  No, that's not a misprint.
10. Hofstra (6-10, 0-4 CAA) - Talk about a complete reversal from a season ago.  Last season, Hofstra swept through gauntlet week, which helped catapult them to a third place finish in the CAA.   Last week, Hofstra got swept.  First, VCU outclassed them at the Mack Center.  Then the Pride lost a heartbreaker at Delaware by a point, when they missed three free throws in the last twenty two seconds in the game.  Then Hofstra lost at UNCW by six. The Pride have now lost as many games in conference this season, four, as they had all last season.
    
    If there is any silver lining to an 0-3 week, it has been the play of Stephen Nwaukoni.  Nwaukoni has earned a starting role due to his tireless work on the boards. He averaged nearly ten rebounds per game during gauntlet week. 
11. William and Mary (3-13, 1-3 CAA) - The Tribe did their best this past week.  They gave Mason fits at the Patriot Center, leading for most of the first half before losing.  Then they knocked off JMU at home.  Finally, they held their own for most of the game at Delaware before losing to the Blue Hens.
    
    W&M has their own talented freshman in Marcus Thornton.  In the three games last week, Thornton averaged nineteen points and shot 16 of 20 from the free throw line.  Over his last four games, he is eight of seventeen from beyond the arc.
12. Towson (0-16, 0-3 CAA) - The Tigers gauntlet week received a lot of negative publicity due to their record tying and record breaking losses.  First, Towson played respectably at home, losing to Northeastern by nine points.  Then it got ugly.  First was the 70-27 loss at Drexel, where only one Tiger had more than one field goal in the game and had eight baskets for the entire game.  Then Towson set the NCAA Division I mark for most consecutive losses with thirty five in a row as they got pummeled at ODU 75-38.
    
    It's hard to find a bright spot on a winless team that has scored sixty or more points only twice this season.  But Robert Nwankwo was a stat sheet stuffer against Old Dominion.  Nwankwo had eleven points, seven rebounds, five blocks and two steals vs. the Monarchs. Nwankwo on the season averages eleven points and eight rebounds per game.