Only Brownies and Ice Cream Can Ease This Pain (Recap of George Mason vs. Hofstra)

Coming into last night's game, in six of their eight conference losses, Hofstra has lost by a total of twenty five points.  It's never been a question of heart.   The Pride have played hard all season, and with very few exceptions, they have been very competitive in their games this season.  Hofstra even has three non conference wins over teams that are in first place in their conference (LIU, Cleveland State and Iona).  That's what makes it so surprising that they didn't have a single CAA win entering last Saturday evening.

In an earlier article this season, I wrote about why the Pride have lost so many games this season.  Turnovers and two point field goal percentage defense have been their achilles heels for the most part.  Still, having seen in person this team beat several good teams is what makes it most frustrating.  I am sure that many fellow Hofstra fans probably have felt the same frustration this season

But there was a glimmer of hope last Saturday evening as my friend Tieff and I stood outside the entrance to the Spiro Sports Center Gym on the campus of Wagner College before the LIU-Wagner game.  We were listening to the end of the Hofstra-James Madison game on my WRHU app for the IPhone.  The Pride had led most of the way until losing the lead late.  It was like the story line to many of their games this season; lead for a good part of the game only to lose at the end.  But Steve Mejia, who had struggled all season in part due to injury, hit a three point play with six seconds left to give Hofstra their first conference win of the season; a 71-69 win over JMU.

Finally, the Pride had some momentum entering their Wednesday night contest vs. George Mason. This time Hofstra was back home at the Mack Center as the students were back as well.  It was nice to see the Lions' Den packed again. In fact, we had two enterprising students dress up as referees.  Before the game, they followed the CAA officials around, mimicking their every move.  Too bad they couldn't officiate the game as well.

My son Matthew and I took our usual seats.  It was another free give away night as we were each given coffee mugs.  I don't have to worry about my six year old son drinking coffee for a while.  He was content to have his pre game ritual of a pretzel and a bottle of water.

If the Pride were going to build upon their success from Saturday night, they would have to do so against the first place Patriots, who had only lost one conference game entering last night's contest.  Mason Nation was in full force as they filled the entire section behind their bench.  Have a first place team, will travel.

But it was Hofstra that came out looking like the best team in conference.  The Pride went out to a 9-0 lead, looking aggressive and confident.  Mike Moore and Nathaniel Lester combined to score the Pride's first nine points as Hofstra looked sharp on offense.

Meanwhile, Mason couldn't hit the side of barn nor could they hold onto the keys to the barn.  In the first five minutes, the Patriots missed their first five shots and matched that with five turnovers.  But George Mason had recent history on their side.

That's because during this season, Hofstra had started out strong in several games, building big leads, only to hit an ice cold stretch and allow their opponents back in the game.  In a recent game vs. Northeastern, Hofstra scored the first nine points of the game as well, only to see the Huskies score the next twelve points.  Northeastern would end up winning a nailbiter 64-62.

Sure enough, the Pride's shooting went frigid as they went without a field goal for almost six minutes.  Little by little, Mason cut into the lead.  But the Patriots' shooting was equally as arctic.  Over the first twenty minutes, George Mason would be four of twenty three from the field.

The first nearly twenty minutes of the game were comical.  You had brutally bad shooting, two teams carelessly turning the ball over, lane violations and rugby scrums. All that was missing was music from the Benny Hill show.  After eleven minutes of game action, the score was incredibly Hofstra 12 George Mason 7.

What kept the Patriots in the game though was their foul shooting, especially from Jonathan Arledge.  Mason, who came into the game with the second most free throw attempts and the second most free throws made, went eleven of thirteen from the free throw line, with Arledge a perfect six for six from the charity stripe.  The eleven free throws accounted for nearly fifty eight percent of their points in the first half.

Though Hofstra was not shooting well and not careful with the ball, they were playing hard as they always do. Poor Stephen Nwaukoni crashed to the floor during several rebound attempts.  I thought on the third time they were going to have to carry him back to the bench.  But with help from his teammates he kept getting back up and stayed in the game.

Nwaukoni was in better shape than Ryan Pearson though, who had to leave the game due to being hit in the face with a tipped pass.  Pearson, the Patriots leading scorer on the season, was on the sideline bleeding being attended to by the trainer.  To say  the first half was physical was an understatement.  After a particularly hard foul by Arledge on Dwan McMillan, Matthew turned to me and said "I hate George Mason right now."  Probably McMillan felt the same way too.

The first half mercifully ended with Hofstra holding a 20-19 lead.  Despite shooting seventeen percent and turning the ball over eleven times, George Mason was amazingly down one point at the half, thanks to defense, rebounding and free throw shooting.  The teams combined for twenty turnovers and twenty fouls in the first half.  Hofstra shot only eight of twenty three from the field and  was only two of five from the free throw line.

It didn't take very long for the Patriots to come out firing.  With a Hofstra student holding a giant Andre Cornelius credit card in the front row due to his arrest last summer for using a stolen credit card, Cornelius buried two three pointers to start the second half to put George Mason out to a 25-20 lead.  Then Pearson started getting into the action with a three pointer and a couple of free throws.  The lead was extended to eight, 36-28 with about ten and a half minutes left.

But as I noted, despite their record, the Pride have played hard all season.  And Hofstra rallied, scoring eight straight points over the next two and a half minutes.  David Imes nailed a three pointer from the left corner and the game was tied at thirty eight with a little more than eight minutes left.   The crowd was finally into the game.  Then the fans had even more reason to cheer as Mike Moore's three pointer gave Hofstra their first lead of the second half, 41-40.

The Pride actually took a three point lead before Cornelius hit his third three pointer of the night to tie the game at forty three with five and half minutes left.  The teams then exchanged the lead three times over the next couple of minutes.  An Imes jumper gave Hofstra the lead 50-48 with a little more than two minutes left in the game.

But George Mason would respond with a Sherrod Wright jumper and one.  Wright would hit his free throw to put the Patriots up one, 51-50.  Free throws would be the deciding factor down the stretch.  And as fate would have it, just like all conference season, Hofstra missed four open jumpers in the last ninety seconds in the game.  Four more Patriots free throws would seal Hofstra's fate.  After Shemiye McLendon's layup was blocked with Mike Morrison, George Mason ran out the clock.   Another close game, 55-50.  Another close loss for the Pride.

Moore, the leading scorer in the CAA, led all scorers with eighteen points. Lester added twelve points for Hofstra.  Pearson, the third leading scorer in the CAA, only had seven points on the night.  But the Mason bench had his back.  Reserve guard Sherrod Wright led the Patriots with fifteen points while Arledge added ten points.  George Mason's bench outscored Hofstra's bench 36-6.

Hofstra actually outshot George Mason from the field, hitting five more field goals, as both teams hit five three pointers.  But the big difference was the free throw line.  The Patriots hit twenty of twenty three free throws while Hofstra was five of eleven.from the charity stripe.  If anyone ever tells you that free throws don't matter, just show them the boxscore of this game.

As we made our way out of the arena, I was at a loss for words.  It was now Hofstra's seventh loss in conference decided by six points or less.  Matthew however was not a loss for words.  He expressed his frustration over how Hofstra was beating a first place team.  All I could do was say "I know. I know."   When we got home, my wife had made brownies.  Sometimes, even at your lowest point, inspiration strikes.   I cut a brownie from the tray, put it in a bowl and put moose tracks ice cream on top.

As I started writing this article, I had my comfort food.  Another close game.  Another close loss.

A Season Is Not Determined By Luck (Recap of Hofstra vs.Northeastern)

Over the years, there is luck involved in college basketball. I have seen several miracle half court shots go in.      Many times have I seen a buzzer beater to win a game.  There are strange bounces and questionable last second calls that have decided games.  And often I have seen as much bad luck as there is good luck.

But from my years experience of watching college basketball live, luck is not the overall determining factor in a team's overall success, whether a team is good or a team is a bad.  There are statistical reasons why teams are successful and why teams are not successful.  And if you watch the game closely, you can often see that play out on the court.  Good teams make their own luck and bad teams make their own luck too.

Case in point - Several basketball experts said Hofstra had a lot of luck going 14-4 in conference last season and 21-12 overall.   Ken Pomeroy's luck metric had  Hofstra as the sixth luckiest team in basketball in the 2011-12 season.  Furthermore, as John Templon of Big Apple Buckets stated on his site, Pomeroy's statistic noted that Hofstra won four more games than they should have last season.

This was noted in an article on this site called "Hofstra's 2010-11 Success Was All About Skill".  In my article, I disputed Pomeroy's statistic based on other statistics, specifically assists to turnover ratio, turnover margin and free throw shooting; three categories that Hofstra excelled in last season.  The Pride excelled in close games as well with a 9-4 record in games decided by seven points or less.  I noted it was because they had more possessions and hit their free throws down the stretch.  Basically, they did the little things right to win a game.

A week ago, the New York Times Quad Blog did a statistical historical analysis of the last ten seasons of teams in the CAA, which Hofstra is of course a member.  The analysis showed "that field-goal percentage defense and assist-to-turnover ratio are the statistics most correlated with teams winning the Colonial Athletic Association tournament."

In that same article, Hofstra Coach Mo Cassara stated "The most important statistic to me — that I really value — is assist-to-turnovers.. That’s the thing that I emphasize the most and I think correlates directly with winning.”

Shaka Smart was then quoted later in that same article stating " We look at turnover margin."  He went on further to say,"Sometimes it’s as simple as if we can force around 20 turnovers and have somewhere under 12 turnovers ourselves, then that’s 8, 10 extra possessions, and that’s huge for us."

Needless to say, I was thrilled to read all of those things. You had statistical correlation of why teams are successful.  And two successful coaches who valued ball possession, to me the most important part of a team's success.

But now here we are, one season later.  Hofstra entered their game with Northeastern with as many losses in conference this season than all last season and a losing record overall.  And of course, people have commented that luck has reversed its fate on the Pride this season.

And this season certainly has not been about a lack of heart or lack of talent.  The Pride have beaten Iona, Cleveland State and LIU, three very good teams that all currently lead their conferences.  I personally saw all three of those games and Hofstra played with intensity, grit and showed a lot of skill.

However, I am here to tell you again, it's not luck that Hofstra was 6-10 overall going into this game.  It's in the stats.  And the game against the Huskies sadly proved it again.

When I got to the Mack Center about twenty minutes before tipoff last night, I could tell the energy was lacking in the building.  First, there was no pep band, no cheerleaders and no dance team there.  The Lions' Den student section was barely noticeable due to there being no undergrad classes in session. Being a school night, there weren't a lot of kids there, sans the CYO team playing at the half and my six year old son, aka my color analyst Matthew.  It felt empty in Hempstead, and I wondered how that would affect the home team.

But it was the road team that came out flat.  The Huskies looked horrible at the beginning, missing their first seven shots.  Meanwhile, the Pride came out with energy and scored the game's first nine points as Stephen Nwaukoni continued his recent improved play with two hard earned layups.

But the reason the old, tired cliche of basketball is a game of runs is used so often is that it is so true so often.  And sure enough, Northeastern responded back with a run of their own, scoring the next twelve points as Hofstra forgot how to score, missing four straight shots and turning the ball over twice.  Joel Smith had eight of those twelve Huskies' point as they went up 12-9 with a little over eleven minutes left in the half.

Nathaniel Lester's three point play tied the game at twelve.  And then both teams managed to struggle together as they each scored an additional twelve points over the last ten plus minutes.  The game was tied at twenty four at the half and rightfully so, since their stats were so much similar.  Same number of field goals made, nine.  Same number of three pointers made; two.  Same number of free throws made; four.  Neither team shot well from the field; Hofstra 34 percent, Northeastern 39 percent.

The fans weren't pleased with the first half.  One season ticket holder I know said "This game is hard to watch".  My friend Tieff said "It's bad playing worse."  My color analyst was even harsher with his criticism.  At the start of the second half, I asked him "What do you think of the game so far?"  Matthew covered his eyes and grimaced.

The second half was strange.  At times, Northeastern's 3-2 zone gave Hofstra fits, as the Pride turned the ball over three times in the first four and a half minutes.  Yet when they solved the Huskies' defense, they hit their shots, hitting ten of their first sixteen attempts in the second half, often easy layups in the paint .  With nine minutes left in the game, Hofstra was up 50-43.

In particular, Lester was having a huge second half for the Pride. He would score fourteen of his nineteen points in the second half.  He got help from Nwaukoni, who had seven second half points and David Imes who also had seven second half points. Based on a Newsday report, Mike Moore struggled with a groin injury all night and had only nine points, twelve less than his season average.

But the stats started adding up and were not in Hofstra's favor.  First, the Pride turned the ball over four times in the next five minutes. They would have sixteen turnovers on the game.  Meanwhile, Northeastern, the team that averaged the second most turnovers in the CAA coming into the game at sixteen per game, only had ten turnovers on the night and had only one turnover in the final fifteen minutes of the game.

Also,  the Huskies couldn't miss from the field down the stretch, or perhaps the Pride couldn't stop them.  Coming into the game, Hofstra's two point field goal percentage defense was an unseemly 50 percent.   And Northeastern took advantage over those last nine minutes.  During those final nine minutes, the Huskies would shoot eight of twelve from the field, all two point field goals.

Northeastern would tie the game at fifty six on a jumper by Jonathan Lee.  Lee scored nineteen of his twenty one points in the second half, as he hit big shot after big shot.  And if it wasn't Lee, it was Smith who came through for the Huskies. His old fashioned three point play tied the contest at sixty with a little less than two minutes remaining in the game.

After Quincy Ford put the Huskies up two with two free throws, Lester came back with a strong layup to tie the game at sixty two.  But just like their losses to Florida Atlantic and James Madison,  Hofstra would again feel the sting of a late jumper.  Lee hit one with ten seconds left to put Northeastern up 64-62.

But unlike those two previous games, this time the Pride  had more than enough time left to tie or win the game.  After a timeout, Nathaniel Lester drove up the court against the Huskies' pressure.  But he would dribble the ball off himself out of bounds.  Their last and most crushing turnover of the game. After Hofstra fouled Lee off the inbounds play, Lee missed the front end of an one and one.  The Pride grabbed the rebound, but Lester's half court shot fell way short.  Another close game, another Hofstra loss, 64-62. The Pride were now 0-5 in conference and 6-11 overall.

As DefiantlyDutch, Jerry Beach noted in a tweet, the Huskies would score on seventeen of their last nineteen possessions.  So despite Hofstra shooting sixty percent in the second half, Northeastern shot fifty eight percent.   And when Northeastern didn't hit a field goal down the stretch, they went to the line, hitting five of their seven free throws.

Coming into the game, Northeastern was tenth in the CAA in free throw shooting at 66.5 percent.  Last night, the Huskies shot 71.4 percent from the line, hitting fifteen of their twenty one free throws.  Meanwhile, Hofstra which was third in the CAA in free throw shooting at 71.5 percent, shot only eleven of seventeen last night, 64.7 percent.  Perhaps the free throw shooting was lucky in different ways for Hofstra and Northeastern.

But you couldn't say that about the turnover margin.  As mentioned Northeastern had ten turnovers, Hofstra sixteen. That meant several more possessions for the Huskies than the Pride.  In a two point game, you could definitely say that was the difference.

Hofstra had seventeen assists to sixteen turnovers. Coming into the game, Hofstra was ninth in the CAA in assist to turnover ratio at 0.7.  Last season, the Pride were first in the CAA at 1.3.  And last season Hofstra was third in the CAA in turnover margin at + 2.29 per game.  Entering the game last night, they were fifth at +.69 per game.

This season, the Pride are 1-6 in games decided by seven points or less. And based on the statistics, you can say that most of that has to do with assist to turnover ratio and two point field goal percentage defense.  It doesn't have to do with luck.

The 1,654 fans that were mostly quiet for the entire game left the arena seemingly numb.  They had already seen the last second losses to James Madison and Florida Atlantic.  Perhaps they knew when the game was close, the statistics didn't favor the home team.   It didn't again last night.